bristolri_wx

Let me know when the storm is forecasted to move here.  Long way to go...

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling.  The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going?  It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane.  I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%.  Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

LOL I got weenied for this?

 

Rain just finally arrived here.  Feel like there was a force field around us last two days lol...

I'm not buying what the GEFS is selling.  The storm would be historic, because have we ever had a landfalling hurricane follow a track even close to any of the landfalling members have going?  It seems extremely rare for anything that starts to make that turn N before 70 W to make it here as a hurricane.  I guess any track is possible, but I still think Lee making a direct hit on New England based on the way the GEFS is forecasting is like 1%.  Now if Lee doesn't turn and takes a more traditional route with a drive by near Cape Hatteras, then we're cooking with gas - but not one model shows that happening.

Trying to figure out why 12z Euro op was so much farther west of the 00z (been out all day catching up now)... seems like the only big difference is interaction with a short wave digging SE out of Canada pulls Lee NW.  So I guess that seems to be a key piece of the puzzle to keep an eye on, and we all know how great the models are forecasting Canadian waves of low pressure 7 or 8 days out. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least people can quiet down now. It looked great for 12hrs lol. 

I believe the term for what Lee has is “Premature Intensification”. There are medications and therapies that can help.

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You need to get it to 70W min for any chance for a LF up here.

75… even at 70 they usually miss us, as they rarely turn due north and stay that way.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is going Cat 6

Spinal Tap intensity scale lol.

That’s some very impressive strengthening in a short timeframe! Waiting for someone to drop or invent the term tropical bombogenesis on the internet soon! 

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ugh we are still 9 days out... definitely a trend in the right direction if you want a storm.  The EPS mean has been slowly marching west.  But still... Day 9 model run...

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Surf, dont want this hood destroyed. I am good with Tors and Canes. Hour of destruction is worth months of misery. Yea no. The young ones have no idea.

Sorry that was supposed to be a funny! Perhaps I should have added a "Shwing!" to my reply. 

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just got wood

Didn't realize you were that excited about this storm.

6 minutes ago, Childude645 said:

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/HurricaneBob1991EventReview


.

Not really?  Bob formed from a wave off the Florida coast.  Lee is a long-tracker.

Can't get to excited until it gets to 75 West.  Almost everything that hits us has to get that far west or it recurves... a lot more variation in latitude than longitude...

4 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Someone should start a Banter thread.

No looting in here so far!

Started a new topic because "Fall is here!"

On 9/3/2023 at 8:13 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

We did stop at Jules ice cream near the Beach House at the end.   We. Had done a part of the bike trail (and Colt on bikes) last year but this was our first time we did the whole thing.   Our son had gone to school in Bristol so we knew that well.   Lots of places right on the trail to get food etc.  Beach House, Del’s, a coffee place, more ice cream, a taco place.      The trail currently has two detours because they are rebuilding two old bridges that are rotting away (in Barrrington).    
I would ride that often if I lived there. 1.75 hour drive right now

 

You rode right past my house. I’m a stones throw away. The bike path and colt state park are some of the best reasons to live in Bristol. Though many residents get grouchy about the “crowds” they attract. (Not me)

I’ve been following this thread since it began several months ago. I’m not going to say this is a forecast by any means, but I have a good feeling about this upcoming 23/24 winter not being a ratter:

- Transition from La Niña to El Niño.

- Hard to be worse than last season for most areas outside of NNE.

- The weather pattern last several months has been almost the exact opposite of last year.

I know that’s probably as scientific as the farmer’s almanac, but I think there’s a high probability it’s going to end up being the case to at least get average snow and cold in most areas this winter and decent chances to be better.

Let’s return to the more scientific and research driven programming already in progress. 

On 9/1/2023 at 6:55 PM, MJO812 said:

Cfs cancels winter

Best sign yet this winter will be better than last year.

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Floyd must have come close.  We had 5.9" RA and gusts to near 40, and we're pretty far inland.  That's "only" 24 years back.

Floyd was downgraded to TS and maybe even to TD before it got to New England. Tons of rain though.

Bob the eye went right over Bristol. Lots of damage here. I was 13 and remember helping remove tree branches and leaves all over the place.

Tornado warning in Providence.  Phones in the office going off with alerts!

Gotta say that the pattern this month has been for the stuff to get through all the way to the coast more than usual, or at least compared to the last few years. Usually the stuff that comes in from the west and northwest dies when it hits eastern RI, but we have had come straight through, even in a weakened state. Nothing severe with this one here but lots of lightning and heavy rain

Zip.. zero... zilch... nada...

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow.

That’s a lot of anomalously warm water…