bristolri_wx

So we jump on 10 day forecasts when they forecast 0, and dismiss the ones that had 30” of snow?

LOL… let’s call it a rat when it’s done. I remain optimistic even with a SE ridge. There will be snow in Feb and March for all of New England, including S and SE areas.

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested.

Congrats on the baby.  Nice to see someone else on the board interested in Fantasy Baseball as well, which is the real fantasy sport IMO.

The snow will come when we're least expecting it or paying attention.  That's how it works.  I think Feb and March will be better than Dec and Jan, not because we're due, but because there is a pattern change going on that could work in our favor much more so than what we've been seeing the last two months...

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We’re actually driving to Florida just past mid February.  Stopping in Pittsburgh to visit a dear friend and then heading south with some fun stops on the way.  Checking out spring training and visiting my wife’s mom who’s wintering there.   We’ll return whenever….

Hopefully we get something in the next few weeks but I’m not holding my breath.

Queue the Blizzard of 2023 on Feb 17th, or whenever your trip begins. LOL! 

I’m still optimistic we get some snow between now and April 1. All the lovely maps that show the west cold show cold in Canada as well. That’s a definite pattern shift. We fight the SE ridge in mid Feb but it seems to cool down afterwards heading into March. We shall see. 

Head Meteorologist Vernon Wermer with the forecasted final snowfall totals for Southern RI and SE MA for tomorrow:

2 hours ago, George001 said:

 

 

Yeah, to save this winter in SNE we need something to force all that cold in Siberia over here. It’s possible but based on past winters similar to this it’s a long shot. That damn western ridge is just too far west so everything wants to run inland.

We don’t need anything from Siberia, they can keep their cold. All we really need is for Canada to stop averaging +10-20 anomalies for weeks at a time. The air masses in place every time we get an event have literally been hot garbage. There’s nothing to tap into to generate snow…

Siberia and Canada can be cold at the same time, it doesn’t have to be an either/or scenario.

I'm still optimistic about the next 6 weeks.  One thing that continues to be shown is that Canada is finally going to cool off.  Yes, the little below normal stretch in late Jen/early Feb is not sustained in the US, but it does seem to be in most of Canada, based on the CFS weeklies and the 35 day GEFS, and even when eastern Canada warms a little, its not torched like it has been.  While it might not be good for sustained snow pack, we're going to have our chances with storms, especially as the SE ridge modulates - when it fades a little we might get our chances at some coastals with some cold air to feed them, even if its a positive anomaly overall for the month.  I may still be S-O-L in the coastal plain for most of the upcoming chances, but, overall for New England it's a much better pattern for potential snow.  I do like the colder trend at the end of the month as well.  Just my two cents...  We'll see how I feel about this prognostication on March 1!

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro looks pretty interesting for interior New England. 

Axl lied to me, cold November rain does last forever. Congrats Pike north! Hopefully the coastal plain will get more than an inch of snow at some point the remainder of the season. Gradient blows here…

Pingers here, 32.

I will do my formal observation here that we have a nice coating on the grassy areas, and bands have been moving in then getting shredded by that dry air. I’m really on the edge here… but some nice January weather regardless. 32 here.

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

Perhaps my sarcasm was too understated for the recent weather pattern.

The overall vibe here lately is we will never see snow again. Thought I could spice things up here… considering the dire conversation.

That being said it was probably posted in the wrong thread…

Hey it’s doing something funny outside. Not sure what it is. White stuff flying out of the sky and sticking to the ground. Crazy stuff!

6 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I'm not familiar with the initials CFS?  It's the same ting as the GEFS?

Wow I thought I had deleted that post quickly! I mistakenly thought you posted a CFS v2 output map, which usually tends to run warm. (As others mentioned, “Climate Forecast System)

The extended 00z GEFS is relatively new since the upgrade to the GFS last year…

That's quite an autumn nor'easter out there tonight! 

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually don’t have a problem with the MJO contributing some … 

The hemisphere appears receptive to it actually moving east of the Niña firewall. Dispersion (wave propagation) is constructively interfering.  It’s just not an aspect that is on the charts at this time -

It won’t drive the pattern … it may contribute. NCEP has 70+% prob for NIÑA neutralization over the next 40 days. It could in total send the pattern roulette turning for a new number. 

No idea what their reasoning is but these questions are worth asking. 

I have an electric one and rarely use it.  Since I've purchased it 5 years ago I think I've used it 6 times.  Usually it's not enough to bother (I have a small 2 car driveway), or, too wet to use it efficiently.  At the same time, no way I'm spending money on a fancy two stage for the two or three sloppy storms per year I might get some use out of it.  It's worked fine on the big storms we have had where the snow was 8:1 or higher.  I voted no because if there's anywhere that's probably gonna get screwed this year, it's the coastal plain down here near Narragansett Bay, with warm SST's and warm tounge's at 900mb on the NAM. 

It's hard to give up on an entire winter in early Jan.  I still feel confident that the pattern breaks to something more favorable for winter enthusiasts in late January into February.  As many have said, Canada is warm too right now so every storm is a threading the needle situation until that reverses.  The ensembles and long term climate models are still pointing to a change in that scenario.  Once Canada cools off it's easier to get SWFE events and other storms that develop when the upper air pattern is more favorable.

That being said, we may still end up with a below normal winter for snow because of all the missed time, so if that's your definition of a ratter, then it's a high probability it will occur.  But overall patience is the key the next couple of weeks...

Totally confused today checking in on threads.  There's a small snow storm in the forecast, and med/long range is improving as well.  I thought it was gonna be 60 degrees the rest of January with anomalies so high they need to invent new colors on the model maps? /s 

8 hours ago, qg_omega said:

The CFS weeklies give a better representation to what causes that map. The above normal temps are front loaded, while the second half is AN but to a much lesser extent.

Not sure I see the full value in a monthly map being posted for Jan when there are weeklies from the CFS, GEFS, and EPS available that provide better context for the actual weather.

It's going to be tough for anywhere other than NNE to pickup any snow next two weeks unfortunately.  Canada just doesn't have any real cold for us, so it's gonna be the "lucky nickel and dime" stuff next few weeks.

Thankfully as others have mentioned mid January into Feb looking good for at least having the right conditions for snow in all of New England.  And if you are looking at long term models Feb and March look cold.  Hopefully not suppressed.  Maybe another back-loaded winter?

EDIT:  Snow Depth Loop for the same GEFS run - again just showing that we are looking good mid-January forward.

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree even though fully guilty.  I wish I remembered more to post in Banter if it has no weather relevance. I’d move my posts, and went to sports forum after initial posts.

It definitely used to be different. 20 years ago, no one pressed “send” or “post” unless it absolutely had to be said and was well researched/reasoned.  That was if you thought you were worthy enough to hear from on list-serves, bulletin boards, etc.

Social media has changed things.  We never used to share feelings with weather at the beginning.  Now it’s largely the conversation.

Agreed.  I've done the same as well.  And to be honest it doesn't have to be super-strict moderation.  Directly responding to someone with a meme or a "beer" is fine, IMO, as long as the original post is on topic.  But we have 57 pages of January Obs/Discussion on 1/2/23?  How is that even possible, without a storm in the forecast.  Some self moderation is probably the key going forward...

First - I hope Damar Hamlin is okay.  Looks like the game is done for this evening...

That being said.  Addressing some of the "whining" and such on some of the other threads.  I think we just need a return to the moderation we had a few years ago.  Right now there's a bunch of discussion going on in the Obs/Discussion thread that should be in banter.  The "panic" can be in banter too.  I can remember seeing stuff moved in the past, perhaps that's all that's needed to get the Obs/Discussion thread more focused again.  The "whining" used to be done in banter.  Now banter seems to be treated as an off-topic thread, when it doesn't have to be.  Look in Obs/Discussion now, there's a post about a boulder falling on the highway, and discussion about Hamlin there as well.

Just my two cents.  I fully acknowledge that it's easier said than done, and moderation can be a pain since it's volunteer based...

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah the efforts to suppress Covid at civility scales ...world over, to varying degrees of success or not unfortunately means background immunity is uniquely set up for waves of 'normal' pathogens.    This was predicted by super computing 2 years ago.   

I have nasty cold going on.  Tested for C three times. Negative.  Thing is, I did catch a hold of omicron back last April - it wasn't as bad this piece of shit I'm dealing with now.   jesua

Yup. Whole household has been dealing with waves of colds/viruses for couple of months. We have been all sick since after Christmas. Worst cold/flu season in a long time.