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bristolri_wx

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Posts posted by bristolri_wx

    November 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

    Well I was comparing the EC weeklies and then using the 6-10 day from the latest EPS to show how bad the weeklies did from week 3 initialized on 10/27. My guess is the CFS weeklies also showed a torch too. 

    I’ve been recently taken an interest in the 00z 840 HR GEFS ensemble runs that are available on TT. They are usually a day behind to complete. IMO, not as good as the Euro weeklies but better than the CFS weeklies. They might have even been more into this cold anomaly setup earlier than the others. Most of the output can be separated into 5 day intervals. Not sure how others (especially mets) feel about it…

    • Like 1

    Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

    in New England

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    Same we have seen it all. What happens happens.

    Even though he’s full of it these days, Joe Bastardi did have a good tagline at the end of his videos when he worked for Accuweather.

    ”Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you‘ve got.”

    Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture

    in New England

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    No one will remember ( or care ) about the CFS's ( Complete F'n Shitshow) when it turns around in a week has a -3 sigma N/A continent -

    Agreed.  It does seem to be a volatile model.  It fluctuates from week to week, and I also noticed the changes recently.  There must be some sort of value to the model, but it may take some nuance to get the best forecasting value out of it.  I know I haven't figured it out yet...

    October 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Basically .. .teetering with a dystopian melt-down of society constructs - yup. I agree with what I suspect you are dancing with there...  To quote an oft' miss-used trope, we find our selves culturally fighting off a rather Orwellian stench.  It's sort of incarnate. 

    There's a histrionic wave surging through modernity,  that is a stimulus response to all that is zapping the minds of the populations that constitute modernity... It's basically this simple:  take a community in a state of quiescence; destabilize the status quo significantly enough; panic ensues; stability dissolves.  That basic recipe we are witnessing, extended beyond a single generational time span is consistent with present global state of affairs.  Due to technology? - I don't want to impugn it like a fringe ideologue, but fact of the matter is..it matches a pattern that appears to recur throughout history.

    So is borne a hypothesis of mine, venturing into anthropology of modern man (which I am a Meteorologist so it's a bit of a stretch HAHAHA)  But weather guys/gals tend to see patterns in shit.  I don't know.  But looking back across history... what has happened a decade or two (or shorter) prior to most of the large scaled states of duress (war)?  - a wave of unsettling information disrupted the status quo.  In more modern times, the radior preceded WW1 ...--> WWII became incensed and was really a continuation of the same hostility, but Industrial Revolution's tech began to alter humanity and provide even more informational resources that offered more corruption of assumption and lent to populous movements ..inevitably WWII.  Surveilance of foreign affairs became the paranoia affair of all the "world Pentagons" so ... we become Military response happy species - those that guide in part or fully within Industrial advantage.   But if we go back, paranoia and destabilization can be linked to the fall of the Roman Empire...  There are other examples.  War was preceded by waves of destabilzing senses of mass security. 

    We are in that state with how the Internet has been transformative.   Hence the "prediction" may not end so well ;) ...I mean, if there's any truth to the former hypothesis.

    Sooooo… how about them cold temps this morning? :whistle:

    October 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    Devil's advocate is easy to play 5-6 weeks out too because model guidance isn't very skilled at that range.....almost anything can happen. There could be a massive pig over AK that the models don't see right now.

    But all else equal we'd rather not have the weeklies show it even if they aren't very skilled 5 weeks out. At least the more skilled ensembles at 2 weeks out show no sign of a terrible N PAC pattern which I think is the first thing you'd want to eliminate if you are trying to avoid a disaster (a la Dec 2011, 2015, etc)

    The 0z 840 HR GEFS looks a lot better than the CFS weeklies in the mid-to-late November time frame.  The CFS looked a lot better last week.  (Going by what's available on Tropical Tidbits).  Interesting to see the differences between the two...

    October 2022 OBS/DISC

    in New England

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    Looks like we upgrade GFS on 11/29. I got this from a former coworker. One thing to note:

     

    "The GFS overestimates the accumulated snow depth for mixed precipitation
    events with marginal temperatures and underpredicts for events with very
    cold temperatures.  The undesired snow depth predictions are associated
    with GFDL microphysics and the improper density used in the land surface
    model for different frozen precipitation types.  In this upgrade, the land
    surface model is addressed first by providing proper density to various
    frozen hydrometeors."

     

    https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

    Neat!  I found this to be notable as well:

    "The upgrades in the data assimilation system are accomplished by improving the use of existing observations, adding newly available observations, enhancing Near Sea Surface temperature (NSST) analysis, and bug fixes."

    One of the data assimilation items on there was increased input of high latitude wind data from satellites.  Wonder if that might help with the winter storm forecasts with those waves that roll out of northwest Canada that we are always waiting to be "sampled"...

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