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Winter Wizard

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Winter Wizard

  1. Winter Wizard
    Hedging with this forecast for now.
  2. Winter Wizard
    That is a crusha
  3. Winter Wizard
    And notice also how the Euro is consistently king. Very much goes against the narrative some people are pushing on this forum.
  4. Winter Wizard
    Have to think NAM will nudge back to the west based on NS/SS interaction at hour 42.
  5. Winter Wizard
    Wow I can’t recall ever seeing an NWS office pull the trigger on a forecast that early.
  6. Winter Wizard
    QPF cutoff looks eerily similar to Boxing Day
  7. Winter Wizard
    Have to think this is coming east some with the SW over Texas noticeably slower and more strung out.
  8. Winter Wizard
    That's about as classic as it gets for a rapidly strengthening mid-latitude cyclone. Wouldn't sweat precipitation type issues at this stage.
  9. Winter Wizard
    Final total here in West Somerville is 8.3”. First of hopefully many snowstorms for me in New England! Congrats to everyone on an overperformer.
  10. Winter Wizard
    6.5" in West Somerville (Davis). Must have just missed the best banding.
  11. Winter Wizard
    I don't understand the complaints. That looks like an ideal track for a moderate snowstorm for much of SNE and ENE.
  12. Winter Wizard
    Annapolis easily pushing 6” according to my friend. Congrats everyone, love seeing DC south and east get clocked for once! Though I am lowkey jealous this happened as soon as I moved away.
  13. Winter Wizard
    Those clown maps are going to be inflated, especially when you consider the warm soil temperatures. Should there be wobbles north/south you can adjust that map accordingly.
  14. Winter Wizard
    Good morning everyone, here are my thoughts on the storm.
  15. Winter Wizard
    Textbook
  16. Winter Wizard
    Here is my first stab at the forecast.
  17. Winter Wizard
    0.5" in Somerville. We will rebuild.
  18. Winter Wizard
    About as good of a trend as you like to see over the past 24 hours. Legit or is the NAM off its rocker?
  19. Winter Wizard
    Pretty clear to see why GFS has trended toward the Euro/CMC: stronger confluence to the north in each successive run squashes the system. Given the +EPO/-PNA and the disappearance of Atlantic blocking, it'll be in and out in a hurry. Doesn't mean the MA can't thread the needle, but a completely sheared out mess is very much on the table.
  20. Winter Wizard
    We have flakes in Cambridge
  21. Winter Wizard
    GFS looking stronger and farther S with the northern stream vort at hour 96. Could be interesting.
  22. Winter Wizard
    Pretty decent shift north. Not far off from being interesting all the way to SNE but need that vort to dig a little more and pop sooner.
  23. Winter Wizard
    GFS shifts well north with the vort, so it's a congrats Mount Washington.
  24. Winter Wizard
    Going to be a pretty messy, volatile forecast with a pattern that supports multiple weak waves over the coming days. Have to think the Euro is a bit too amplified, but key difference I see between the models is greater separation between the Friday-Saturday wave and the early week wave. If that first system lingers, would likely keep it south and sheared apart like what the GFS showed. On the other hand, a more amplified system usually trends north.
  25. Winter Wizard
    And this is still a few hours before high tide and the heaviest rain bands. Extremely concerning.
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