Winter Wizard

Flossie and Erick have weakened quite a bit over the last 24 hours as they've moved into cooler waters and an area of higher shear. Erick should weaken to a tropical storm as it moves south of Hawaii and will bring increased surf and heavy rain to the Big Island. As for Flossie, ensemble guidance has been wavering, but takes it much closer to the Big Island, posing a more significant threat.

It’s 10:12 PM and we sit at 89/80 here in Downtown Annapolis...good for a heat index of 106. Gross.

The rain has been persistent over Annapolis with that blob over the Chesapeake.

Hey everyone, I just got my degree in Meteorology from Penn State (still waiting on my red tag though) and moved down to Annapolis for a job, so I'm in MA forum territory now. Looking forward to posting more in this subforum and hoping for some severe weather this summer and hopefully an epic winter.

I can tell you as someone you just graduated with a B.S. in Meteorology and just got a job that your last sentence couldn't be further from the truth. Your options with a Bachelor's are limited but there are plenty of companies in the private sector that hire people straight out of college. There are many different pathways you could go down if you want to pursue a Meteorology degree, but if you want to go the straight up forecasting route, you need to be aware that you will likely be working overnights, weekends and certain holidays. The pay also will likely be below your expectations. The work can also be pretty tedious at times. I would recommend going into straight up operational forecasting if that's your passion, but there are more lucrative opportunities elsewhere. Without disclosing too much information, I will be working in the private sector for a company that deals with weather risk management by combining my Meteo degree with a business minor. Going this route or supplementing with a programming background will open up many more doors aside from being just a forecaster. So my advice going into college will be to see if you can handle the math and the physics because they are intense and weed out a lot of people. Get involved in extracurriculars in college and get at least one internship while you're in college. Along with supplementing a meteo degree with another skill, this will make you far more marketable without needing to go to grad school. Going to grad school is only necessary if you want to do research or work for the government.

Rain in Wilmington

Sleet line is crashing back southward...snowing in North Wilmington.

And now we’ve flipped over to snow in Wilmington

Where in DE are you exactly?

It’s rain to start in North Wilmington.

I was honestly shocked to wake up to a WSW with expected snowfall of 7” in Wilmington. Certainly we are going to waste QPF at the start of the event to rain or white rain, as will Center City. That being said, frontogenetic forcing on hi-res guidance seems impressive all the way down to I-95 and would support bands of an inch per hour or greater if we flip to snow. Sticking with my forecast yesterday of 2-4” for I-95 and 4-8” for everyone N and W of Route 1.

I’d go with 4-8” for everyone N and W of route 1 and the Raritan essentially. 2-4” from Sandy Hook to Toms River to Wilmington, DE including the Center City. 1-2” for the C and D Canal to LBI and nothing really below that.

Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential.

Major shift SE on tonight’s Euro, most of the NW Philly suburbs look good for 6-10”.

This has actually been easily State College’s best winter since 14/15. We were shafted hard my first three years in school so it’s kind of nice to see the tables turn a bit even though it’s screwing the coastal plain.

68 MPH gust last night at Beaver Stadium.

Dumping freezing rain at 28 in State College, not good. Campus is already a sheet of ice.

I think it has more to do with rates...we’ve been in a dry slot for a while. Official measurement was 3.9” at the Walker Building not too long ago.

Light sleet in State College.

Getting close to 3 inches in State College with moderate snow but watching that dry slot coming in from the southwest.

Just measured 2.6 inches in downtown State College.

As of 4z, here is the approximate rain/snow line across our area. It appears to be on the doorstep of Bedford and propagating slowly northeastward. Looks like the 0z NAM so far has been pretty spot on as far as the mixing line in our area as well as 850 temperatures across the region, although it did miss the initial precip across the PHL area and South Jersey.

That makes sense given the transfer of energy from the primary low to the secondary low.

Already moderate snow in State College. Encouraging to see the radar blossoming from Bellefonte to Johnstown already.

Honestly confused why CTP raised UNV, if anything I’ve become more bearish based on modeling trends today. With an anticipated transition around 12z, I’m struggling to see how we get to 7 inches even if it includes sleet unless there are crazy snow rates to start, which isn’t really supported by VV or forcing. I would also be mindful of a dry slot across C PA late Tuesday as the secondary low develops. I think this would limit our window for plain rain locally at least.