I have about the same amount of frozen ice pellets. It's getting like a brick now. As for the HRRR it looks like the banding is setting up in NEPA/NW NJ northeast up to the Albany area.
Everyone is still in the game. It all depends on the actual placement of the low and when the deform bands develop. Any adjustment of 20 -30 miles could move that band 20-30 miles too. Won't know till tomorrow.
We have had a few instances where the high to the north was underestimated and position slightly off. We got suppression especially north of the city. The dry cold air was pushed from the north right down the Hudson valley instead of the northeast. Not sure if this will be one of those instances that the NAM is catching on to. I didn't look at this run.
Also along with the CAD would be the wind direction. A more north to south vs a flow from the northeast could also make a difference. Forecast lows for my area tomorrow night is 22. We'll see how the timing works out for cloud cover for Sat night and Sunday which will have an effect on surface temperatures.
Agree, it's been the same here since noon. Temp is holding at 37 for the last 6 hours. Just miserable out there, I hope we at least get a coating of snow overnight as a consolation.