hudsonvalley21

Could go down to nowcast time and looking at the HRRR.

That would be one bumpy flight if it does get in the air on time.

Absolutely

Emotions definitely. A lot of folks got sucked in by the the euro days ago. This has been a thread the needle type event and you might not have model consensus until 12z Friday. Placement of 50-100 miles and a sharp precipitation cutoff is huge here for winners and losers. Still anyones game.

Maybe some dropsondes readings are in this run?

Many moving parts,many outcomes. Maybe by 12z Thursday or 00z Friday when all the parts have been on the playing field. It’s Still a coin toss.

Keep a can of Raid nearby

Hopefully the 12z runs tomorrow will have a good consensus either good or bad.

It was nice looking at the porn snow maps the last couple of days. I would wait till the 12z runs tomorrow. Too hopefully get a good idea with a few runs with the sampling’s inputted.

Almost there. Maybe 00z -12z on Thursday should do it. 50-100 mile shift could make a difference. Also there is a possibility of it slowing or stalling out. Just a few more runs.

Absolutely, I would start getting comfortable after the 12z runs Thursday. For now it’s sit back and see what evolves till then.

Light snow here, coating on all surfaces. 27/23

Model mayhem this season. Flip flopping more than a fish out of water.

I won, low of -1 here.

Me too on the over.

Points click forecast low for me is -3 tonight. We’ll see what happens. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 243 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cirrus had thinned out for a while, but should make a comeback this evening ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The associated sfc low and its deeper low level moisture will remain south. Trended colder tonight with temps per latest MOS guidance, with lows 10-15 in/around NYC, single digits most elsewhere, and 0 to 5 below across Orange/Putnam/N Westchester where winds should decouple over snow pack late tonight. Steady N flow in combination with these temps will result in minimum wind chills around zero in NYC, 0 to 5 below in most suburbs and across Long Island and the immediate SW CT coast, and 5 to 10 below farther north/west.

1.2” total here.