FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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Yeah, its got .82" of freezing rain at RDU.
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He's talking about car tops not the ground.
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Think we'll have any issues with ice? NAM at face values would say we have a decent ice event.
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Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96 Click 4x back for "Prev. Run" A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed.
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I believe the FV3 just gave me my highest fantasy snow totals for this event. I had another run a few days back that gave me 20"; this gives me 24". Now if I can just get 8" I'll be real happy...
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I disagree with the last one. We are aware of the forecast but we still go into Denial.
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The FV3-GFS... and heck the rest of the op models as well.
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We need to pray this model is correct. .....we need to see the NAM come back on board.
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Out to 96 and it would barely stay all snow at RDU; with the back side band coming through.
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I sure hope so. (we've said this way too many times but) This next run is huge.
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For Charlotte and RDU folks, it was a shift south.
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I'll take the Canadian as well; especially with that back end snow.
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At 66 it looks like CAD is a little more pronounce.
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At this point in the game you have to give more weight over the op models (at least I do). Looks like a ice storm. All we need is .25" to reach Winter Storm criteria.
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Piedmont ice storm. You would be lucky with the sleet. The Triangle goes from snow to freezing rain.
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6z NAM freezing rain. And this only goes to hr 84. Lots of precip still occurring and I would think this ice would move up towards central/east NC.
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Not sure if it was last year or the year before that, we had a storm modeled with high amounts throughout the Triangle (and down east). The models failed to see the warm nose and many folks SE of our location saw a lot of rain mixture. The NAM did see this late in the game but most folks ignored it. **I think we need to pay more attention to the short term models from this point on.
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But overall it's more of a monster winter storm look because of the colder surface temps. Major ice storm down through central SC.
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Everybody in my office always ask me what the weathers going to do. I think right now, I'll just give them the RAH grid forecast. This should make it real clear: Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow between 1am and 3am, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Sunday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 11am, then rain and snow likely between 11am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night Snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet before 7pm, then rain and sleet likely. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night A chance of rain, mixing with snow after 8pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Elizabeth Gardner (WRAL) has a nice video: https://www.wral.com/news/local/video/18043784/
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The FV3-GFS is coming in slightly warmer with surface and 850 temps but still a monster. It's out to hr 96. Just looking at the maps it looks like RDU gets over 1" liquid equivalent of snow before any type of mixing.
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Some secondary thoughts, ground temps should at least be on the cool side for this event. We're going to have a couple of days with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That should helps set the stage for this storm. **I'm currently at 31 degrees, going to be a good freeze tonight.
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I'm pulling for those snow totals to increase all the way to the coast. I hate seeing the cutoff line running through our area. Good to have a cushion.
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I hate this, but I think we need to take them seriously. Models would argue that at least the NW Piedmont gets warning criteria totals, but they are really good mets. I hope they're wrong but have to stay cautious until they jump on board.
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Just had a chance to look at the 18z NAM. If the CAD and dew points are correct, this will be a major storm not just for the western/central folks but for folks into the coastal plain.
