FallsLake

RAH used the frost word. They're highlighting "normally colder locations"; which I'm not. But maybe places in central/eastern NC like Sanford, Roxboro, and even Rocky Mount could see something. .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... As of 224 PM Tuesday... Quiet, cooler weather in store for central NC Thursday through Saturday, and even dry weather most of Sunday. The main weather story during this time will be temperatures, with a cold Canadian high settling over the Carolinas by Friday morning. While Thursday morning will see lows in the lower 40s, it will be even chillier Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s possible, and even a few patches of frost possible in the normally colder locations. Otherwise, look for gradually moderating trend over the weekend as the high moves off to our east. The next noteworthy wx system will be a plume of tropical moisture progged to lift NE out of the GOM and cross the Carolinas early Monday morning through the day Monday. That will provide the first of two rain opportunities early next week. The second rain opportunity will be associated with a cold front progged to cross the area on Tuesday.

That wouldn't be surprising for the higher elevations, but for Kentucky that would be a little early. The nice thing is we're in a totally different world from two weeks back.

Personally I would love this outcome. But man that is a skinny strip of precip. One shift south or north and I'm crying the blues while others are celebrating. **wish it was more widespread...

I personally think this would be a great time (moving towards winter) for a trough pattern to set up across the east. I've always been in the camp of (wanting a) east coast trough in early/mid October, ridging from late October into mid November, and then a trough pattern in late November / early December. My thinking is the pattern that occurs around Thanksgiving can be a signal for the winter. This goes along with our past (half) joking about not wanting a Halloween storm or SC November snow.

That's truly sad. It seems there have been a lot more deaths this year attributed to rip currents.

So for many of us, Friday is the transition day. The front will come through early in the day, The farther north you are in the SE, the earlier you'll see the cool down (..or dew point drop). Specifically for RDU, we'll see dew points drop from the mid 60s early in the day to mid 50s by 6pm. High temps will still reach the mid 80s but drop into the upper 70s with the lower dew points by 6pm (..it'll be a nice evening for a walk).

The 6z GFS looks to at least get most of us back to normal (..averaged through the end of the run) starting this weekend. Nothing really cold but it would be beautiful fall weather if it verifies.

I don't know^^, models are definitely showing a cool down for the end of next week. The average may not be too far below normal but at least it'll be below normal. The GFS would have highs in the 60s with lows ~50 a couple of days. With all the heat we've had, that's something to get excited about....

I like seeing that region (and up into SW Canada) get early snow. That's were some of our cold will come from later in the season.

I sure do. We need rain. I dare say we need a tropical system. Otherwise we might have to wait for the November storms to start.

6z GFS is more positive. It now shows a couple of cool downs and then warm ups. Better than all warm; which some earlier runs showed. **Precip is still not good across the SE.

^^Yeah, I've seen it hot (90s) into early October (..like last year). I've also seen it get cool (no AC needed again) after the first week of September. The last two Septembers have been warm; and last October was warm into middle of the month, but then the dam broke and fall finally arrived:

The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes).

Last year was bad as well. Looks like after this brief cool down, it'll stay hot into early October.

for many of us Fall will start tonight (weather wise): .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 128 AM Tuesday... The post-frontal stratocumulus/stratus should be mostly confined to the Piedmont Wednesday morning, then skies are expected to become partly to mostly sunny in all areas in the afternoon. A refreshing NE breeze will advect in much drier and cooler air. Expect highs only in the 70s, except a few lower 80s near the NC/SC border area. Then, mainly clear and cool Wednesday night. The most comfortable night in recent memory. Lows in the 50s, with some upper 40s north- central Piedmont. &&

Fall is normally beautiful here. If we're lucky we can get 4-6 weeks of open window weather.

We do get a break this week. from RAH: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... Much cooler and drier Wednesday through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend over the weekend. High pressure is expected to extend into NC/SC from the north Wednesday through Friday. It will be much cooler and drier with very noticeable drops in both temperature and humidity expected. Sunny days and clear nights are forecast Wed-Fri, lows in the 50s. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The normally cool spots over the Piedmont will have some mid-upper 40s. The ridge aloft will build back into the region from the west over the weekend. This will allow the surface high to remain nearly stationary over our region Sat-Sun. A gradual warming trend will begin Saturday with highs in the 80s, after lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs Sunday should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with dry weather to continue. && **Those cooler spots are places like Sanford and Roxboro.

Yeah, we're already getting temps in 80s/60s while we're in a bad pattern. In July this would be at least 90s/70s. Last year we started to see some foggy nights in mid/late September. We kept the higher dew point, and with the longer nights allowed the air to saturate. Looks like we might see more foggy nights this year...

Hopefully the 6Z GEFS is not good in the LR (2m temp anomaly for days 12-16):

There was a lot of hype about a cold winter. Some of us did get lucky with the December storm, but otherwise it was a bad winter.

Looks like a pattern. Everybody has heard of the 30s heat (dust bowl), maybe we'll start dropping back in the coming years. **not considering climate change.....

Lol, yeah I was just joking with NRVwxfan. He moved from Columbia to SW Virginia and is rightfully expecting to see more snow. But it would funny to see a couple of southern sliders this year like the one shown. **I've been saying for the last two years we're due to see one of these storms.

We also don't know about any feedbacks that may occur with more open water. Siberia (land mass) is still going to get very cold during the fall/winter months. When this air traverses over open water it will pick up moisture and then dump it as snow somewhere else. Most of the Arctic is considered a desert and increasing the winter snow accumulations will have an impact on the spring melt season; which in turn could slow the following years ice melt. **just agreeing with you that we don't know exactly how things will play out....

One thing that kills us in the SE during summer is the high humidity. Correlating with the high humidity are the high dew points that keep overnight lows warm. But in the next few days we'll (continue to) see an air mass that still has warm daytime temps in the 80s, but will have lows in the 50s to low 60s. That's bearable. From RAH: Shortwave ridging aloft and Canadian surface high pressure will build east across the cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic states Thu and Thu night, with associated surface dewpoints and low temperatures in the 50s across the Piedmont, ranging to lwr 60s over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. Highs near to slightly below average in the lwr to mid 80s, with very low/comfortable humidity levels.

Yep, we're going to have to wait and see how this evolves. Kind of fun having something to track.....Even if it is just cooler or wetter solutions.