Torchageddon

^^ Great story, I love those types of accounts. If you remember the temperature being 85F the next day, couldn't you go look at the nearest station database and find all the days where it reached that and then check either the SPC or radar archive for the storm your looking for? I wish I had more storm events where I was in a car looking at lightning and cloud building like that but I was extremely fortunate to happen to be in a car during the early part of the May 12, 2000 event. Aside from it being the best storm, another reason I loved that was it was a Friday evening...can't ask for much more. Looking further into it from that radar data map (I can extract so much information now from that) the monster cell that brought me the worst of that historic thunderstorm was formed way way back in get this...Nashua Iowa!! I was blown away! The very first dbz returns started just north of Nashua at 8:45 am EDT and just exploded racing up towards La Crosse Wisconsin and then heading east and reaching my backyard at 7:50 pm EDT. It wasn't just how long it lasted or how far it traveled, but the intensity it maintained during the vast majority of its time. It maxes out the reflectivity in certain time snapshots I checked. When it was in the eastern part of WI it was flooring it. Had a bow at some point(s) so acted like a derecho. You can really see it start at 2:25 pm over western MI. I'm not sure I would call it a sup because it doesn't look like one but damn that is one of the most badass storm cells ever. The identifiable part of it lasted 1000 km total and morphed just west of Toronto. Never seen a MCS hold together like that and slam into me so it makes sense that I have nothing to compare that with (radar wise) since it was the top storm. The final remnant of the congealed MCS fizzled out off the Nantucket MA coast at 9:30 am the next day. At some point I can create radar loops and forward speed analysis on the 650 mile cell and the overall complex. I should post some images with some highlights of what insane stuff was ongoing that day. I finally have nearly the full radar story now.

I'm getting the opposite of hopefulness from looking at ERTAF: "A continued northward shift in the NPJ leads us to believe the peak of annual US tornado frequency in the Great Plains (weeks 2 and 3) will be gravely below average."

The 2nd worst thunderstorm I've experienced was during the summer of 2003. It was just as the sun had set and had prolific lightning and high winds. I would like to figure out the date of that one so anyone from southern Ontario/eastern MI who remembers some good ones from that June-August give your take. I don't know how to search for t-storm events by region or where to start. These archived radar images seem to come from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

The spot where I was is just to the right of the radar gap of the two radar circle ranges. I can get a lot of information about the type of storm system this was from the DTX/BUF radars - it was a eastward sliding line of storms that slowly sunk south (there was a day in July 2015 that was similar?). It was the perfect intersection of getting the most amount of rain and storms so that's how you get 5 hours without a break! Ordering radar shots? What is that? I thought you could only order EC climate data that is certified. I don't remember seeing that page, but it looks familiar. Thanks. I know its purely US radar data, I've never seen any CAN radar from the event. Didn't even see or recall the radar on TV but did see the local weatherman state, "Batten down the hatches". I saw the EC severe thunderstorm warning scroll during 7:00 pm programming before the TV cut out. May 12 was a broad event spanning from Texas to Ontario, with tornadoes sprinkled all over per SPC reports. It sounds the same as the May 9 outbreak that your describing. May 12 22z there is a monster cell heading east over lake Huron and what looks to be a nice supercell near the thumb of MI.

Where did you find that? I've only come across national US radar frames where some of it showed up from the Detroit/Buffalo radars. This is much higher res than those. At 10:05 pm the storm was winding down (location is cut off reflectivity wise from that scan). Anything from 22:30-23:00 UTC? I wish EC's radar archive went back to before 2000.

If you were in K-W at the time it wasn't as bad I think south. One of the few references to it online when I checked years ago was from a Niagara ON weather site where the storm eventually reached. It was a gradual build up with lots of lightning and the heavy rain probably started shortly after and didn't end. It wasn't until 7:15 pm roughly that it became dangerously severe. We put our shoes on to prepare to go down into the basement as the winds were becoming ridiculously strong and the ferocity was something I've never seen before or since. That lasted a few minutes and then a general powerful storm continued. There were tons of tree branches everywhere, some large. I'm sure backbuilding occurred with lots of lightning past that.

18 years ago right now I was experiencing the worst storm I've ever lived through. Fields became lakes, cars were being swept away in parking lots, 123 km/h wind gust reported in Mount Forest, every type of lightning except ball, 5 hours from 5:30 pm to 10:30 pm the storm continued. Extremely damaging straight line winds all over my region with spin-ups sprinkled in. Had to have used some amazing parameter potential locally with a multi-cluster configuration. Epic is an understatement. I'd love to have high-resolution radar and velocity data of it, and lightning maps. Nothing like that occurs anymore of course.

You missed the most wretched year (May tornadoes) of all: 2017. Last year was truly appalling from an interest standpoint. All those High Risks and nothing memorable - this is my opinion alone but when I think 2017 for tornadoes the only tornado that comes to mind is the Canton TX one. With the 80s being what they were, what large scale configuration led to it? I think the quality severe was probably up north in the GLs because all sorts of stories originate from the mid-late 80s in ON.

I really don't want to hear any hints of death ridge when it comes to the Plains in late May (Only over the GL ). I really need to take the advice of cutting back how much I look at long range data, certainly not good to drive myself crazy. I'm going to look back to see what the mood was like at this time for May 2013 and 2016.

To clarify, what time frame(s) for the deterministic NWP? Just the next 10 days or is that further long range? Mostly interested in the last 10 days of this month.

Did the 00z euro just trash that goodness it showed 2 runs ago?

Amen. I love the perpetual trough especially coming from the Euro when this lame-ass April continues its historic misery. That is scary though. This is the most snowcover I've ever seen this far into April.

This is getting absurd. I thought 2016 and 2017 were a bit too boring but then 2018 came along and said "Hold my beer." What in the actual hell is this? My interest in weather is "gone" now because of it. What is a tornado outbreak? I forget what that is. Aside from one interesting non-severe thunderstorm in September of last year, nothing since then has really been neat/noteworthy. This last winter had nothing of value whatsoever so I rather it was 2011-2012 instead because then at least there was less of it. I wish I was in a warm climate to miss it entirely because not a single lake effect band did anything except something moderate on Christmas Day. No winter storms. I absolutely hated this March we just had and ranks up there for most miserable. Now we're 1/3rd into April and so far this is the single worst April weather I've ever lived through. I'm stunned at the magnitude of atrociousness. It is a VERY bad sign when its being compared to 2014...I would sooner move to Arizona than experience anything like that again. My loathing of 2014 is unbridled and without limits. I should've moved to southern Arizona in late 2013. I haven't followed weather closely due to the exceptional spell of mundane except maybe this small thing: the first 20ºC day. There is that contest with the UW weather station for when it first reaches that and seeing how long we go without getting over could be fun to follow. In at least 20 years its never gotten past April 19th but that sure will happen with this pattern. My concern is this Thursday where it will be the closest yet to 20ºC. Here's hoping that doesn't get wrecked too by Thursday's warmth spike. I thought in 2014 it would be May the way things were but there is always a sneaky spike to screw the "streak".

I think I came across something on eclipsewise.com that does that. I don't know what kind because I quickly went through some sites yesterday.

Oh boy. Another thing is I noticed a lot of folks on ABC's coverage at least not always using their solar glasses to look at the partial eclipse...even the reporters and anchors (one woman was pulled off camera!). I've been reading that even those with the solar viewers in hand and on head got caught with their pants down for a few seconds. They would either not realize it or the desire over-rode their sense. I saw the shadow sweep across the country on GOES-16 satellite using satsquatch.com/map/ and it was pretty neat. Even southern Ontario got dark.

I was at 71.2% and I noticed a change like a cooler breeze and it got dimmer. Its getting to normal brightness now. My solar eclipse glasses worked perfect and saw my first partial. That was pretty cool and makes me want totality even more now! Chile 2019! I saw what Carbondale had...dang! Surprises in a few spots like Charleston SC. Now we see if there is a mass gridlock anywhere.

I'm sorry to hear that. Would this have been your first totality?

After coming to the realization I couldn't make it for the 2017 solar eclipse I started thinking about Chile in 2019...not waiting 7 years on a likely cloudy April day. I have no idea how an eclipse trip like Chile would be.

Are you still going to that appointment on Monday before the eclipse?

For those sleeping in their car for 1 or some of the days of traveling, where would you park for the rest? When I was looking past and future eclipse maps I noticed different spreads of band width of totality which I guess is when the moon is further away or closer. However some tracks at the mid-latitudes are really wide (300 miles or more) and I have no idea why. When looking at the database of all annular and total eclipses there would be mostly annular ones that are half circle (close to the poles) but a few where total eclipses that had the half circle! What's the reason?

Thought of that this afternoon, we can already see what systems could impact the eclipse on the 16th day of the run. So the first frame of a model showing eclipse weather (hour 384) will be tomorrows 12z run then? I don't see any talk about the Euro weekly ensembles which we know gives us a hint for pattern. I'm surprised those weren't going for over $1000. My feeling is Carbondale will be inundated with Chicago residents. I also heard that there were still spots in totality path with vacancies which totally floored me; and weren't overly expensive either. I would have been willing to drive 200 miles out of the path just for a room. I'm unsure if this is uncouth, but what are the best communities online for this? I'm most interested in following those who are last minute planners and don't have a room, how they make out and what they experience in the journey.

With the weather advantage, all of the eclipse experts have all the sophisticated weather resources you would want, there are special weather products coming just for the eclipse from various people including a met here in Canada. The average viewer may not use or know about the various sites that will start operational forecasts, but all the experts will. I have to keep reminding myself its not just weather systems and pulses, its plain clouds that might form which is far more insane to pinpoint to the exact spots within 1 minute intervals. Even if your very close to the path of totality (in IN), there is no chance you will make it if you have an appointment at 10 am (even a 30 min drive). The traffic gridlock will be beyond anything you can envision. I think it'll be the worst in southern IL and MO but in places like OR the emergency management for that state who aren't blowing hot air, state if you live 2 hours outside the 70 mile path - leave SATURDAY evening to get there at 11 am MONDAY on the west coast. So a 2 hour drive would take 32-36 hours!!! No one really knows what's going to happen but once there was a 3 day traffic jam in China so its not impossible to get this kind of traffic. I woke up one day with that question and read that if its a dense overcast during totality it will be so dark you won't know your way around. Can't say if that's true for certain.

I'm in agreement with that being storm of the year to this point, three High Risks in and this was on a day that wasn't one to watch. Its pretty much a law at this point that the memorable insane stuff tends to be when there is little to no hype nowadays and vice-versa. The risk outline from the Day 1 gave me a smirk, those tiny Sights circled spots where the severe cells are. When I checked the reports map and saw where the tornado was, I thought "Lazbuddie" and yep that location was in there lol. Did I read a place called Easter in the tornado warning? Implosions?