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Everything posted by Torchageddon
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Some garden storms were heading my way a few hrs ago then fizzled as they neared. Yep, mid summer is the time for nada. This current pattern is flip flopping from 24C to 27C every 48.
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Dolphin seems to like that Naha island as its attracted to it moving SSW not just scraping it, but radar shows landfall as it ruffles them down their spine. The eyewall looks to be intensifying as its doing this! This is a situ I don't think anyone ever expected, an unique & tilted landfall. For rarity this may be up there with Dorian's extreme pinhole hitting the Bahamas. Latest frames may have it doing a tricodical wobble and/or stall now. For the past 50 mins since 5z its been grinding on the same spot with the potent eyewall -- who is under that? I think its sub 930mb personally, the organization is markably better than when that obs was taken on that tiny island. Can't believe its still listed at 955mb . I think the obs from Naha will be telling a very different story.
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If you watch the loop beyond that it looks like it got bounced from that island and dove south in an unnatural way, and the CDO/eye getting smashed down? I can't explain that one, this Dolphin has had so many bizarre convective haps - its one for the books!
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Torchageddon replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
I found out about 1911's insanity a number of years ago when I saw just like what you mentioned out of this world temps in late spring here, IIRC much of May that year was a torchageddon of intense heatwaves. There were multi-day values over 95F along the shoreline in ON and I have no clue how all that came together. We were nearly at 100F before the mid part of May. As for the rest of the season it was an inferno just endless heatwaves til mid-late Sept. I got pretty excited when on here the late Roger Smith mentioned 1911 as an analogue to summer 2012! -
Its crazy inner dynamics of scything through its own eye at 10z to work out dry air I guess but that lobe got absorbed back into the eye anyways! Deep convection rebuilding around the careworn eye now and slightly larger.
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I'm enjoying this Dolphin as the setup is fairly rum. If an eye size is nearing the top percentile I typically take the under but that means the same size remains or an awk transition to a smaller eye. I chuckle watching that wobbly lug of an eye saunter on for days. Those dry air slots are legendary like a whole moon crescent could fit in there
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With how fast its CDO buzzsaw'ed and cooled this will present some of the crazier inner dynamics we've seen in some time. The eye temp just warmed from -5C to +20C in less than 2 hours.
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I got 1mm from the system that gave a few flashes & thunder at 11pm. 8 out of 10 t-storms this year have been between the hours of 11pm-3am. I got just that one okay tstorm a few weeks ago to break the smoke but even that is garden tier nothing much; a solid tstorm in mid summer here is rare. Today is mainly cloudy but the cooler air felt good 22C/75F. Smoke in the high levels causing mod AQI 75.
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Powerful cell heading SE towards Oshkosh WI, the start of something potentially big.
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Had a great day here of 29C/84F started overcast here too then it broke at 130pm. No rain or storms as shown by some - I think smoke is moving in this eve that was a close call! I was forest bathing and breathing in deeply after that nightmare 2 weeks ago.
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So tiny! Just like the Ashby MN 2020 vortex. Too bad she freaked and put the cam down temp, it was historic. I'll need the official link to the FB vid as a screen cap just won't do. Also, random lady gets some of the the best tor footage of 2026 sans the cam sag
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If you could re-experience ONE winter event....
Torchageddon replied to cyclone77's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'd go with Jan 6, 2014 as a single instance. It was a lake effect blizzard here (never seen an low blizz), never seen anything close to that severity it was sheer chaos in-town. Various aspects I've never seen before were playing out; no returns on radar during intense rates of snow, all plows pulled off (not sure on other events), -40C windchills by the end. There were a few times the visibility was so low that a streetlight just 50 ft across the street was completely shrouded in a blanket of dark grey like we were being swallowed. I have a hard time imagining the scene now since it was so mind blowing (typically its the opposite). For a longer event it'd be mid Nov 2000 with historic LES. Around 100cm or 40 inches+ during that. That and Dec were the snowiest months on record in Hanover; the definition of a front-loaded winter. -
Looking at another MCS rolling in during the next few hours, ugh!!! Every single storm is between 11pm and 8am (nearly all from 12am-3am) this year, just why? I haven't hit the pillow yet and soon my block will be off it again.
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Here I can't see smoke as its blue skies finally with sun, everyone out there is saying hi because we're all so happy to get out of smoke jail. Aqi of about 60 so not really an woe current and let it stay. A bit cool early though it was 16C/61F til 9am.
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I haven't yet seen anything concrete but that was the most well defined hook echo I've seen in the GTA. The QLCS has a few cells with spacing but its a tad crowded. The og sup is nearing Niagara on the Lake but may slip past. Kettle Point ON has a tight cell that is sus. Grab from Instant Weather:
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I saw a notch or hook with a discrete cell there and zipped to find tor warn in a densely pop. spots!
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Blew past even 50mm from the 3rd round, even more lightning nearly at 1K strikes now!! 50 in 3 hr is extreme in my climo.
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The storms were 4 hours early as a beefcake MCS is plowing through. Its been a long time since I've had a 'awn storm. You couldn't see the darkness coming til it was right on top nearly. Curious if the smoke caused that. Fr. lightning with constant thunder, going to be shy of an inch after its not moving fast and I see some backbuilding. Now I've blown way past 1" I'm around 38mm so maybe 50 by the time its done! More convection building to my west, WUN was wildly off but I don't know about TWN. There is no watch nor warning - funny since this is nearly the best storm I've had of 2026 and for literally nothing I often get warned.
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Anyone else feeling like crap due to the smoke? I'm pretty sure its from that as I started feeling sluggish from the dim light yesterday, it was brighter today so half to a 3rd the brightness but its the extreme AQI values causing headache feeling, low motivation, low thoughts, hard to focus or think clearly, strange bodily temp sensations sometimes, pseudo-malaise, etc. Can't imagine what is happening to the vulnerable right now. With that said I saw more out this aft old and young alike and strangely many vehicles have their side windows down. Guess they want to fill their passages up with ash.
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Don't count on it. Yesterday it was so dim that there weren't even any optical effects. Time to break out the PH test kit. There is a pocket to my east of less smokey air as Barrie ON was at 180 last check, unfortunately its not moving my way it is only sagging south to Oshawa. I'm still around 380 but I'm on Day2 of this shit and trust me its far worse than you think it is sustained for this long. I'm a healthy adult who has tried to remain indoors (I briefly went out) and I'm feeling ill effects I know are from this. You almost want to buy a good air purifier and stow away in the basement somewhere.
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I thought there was a backup like the old GOES but that was long ago probably not the same. Using WEST I can see our region but I want to zoom in even if its low-res.
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What is used instead for important matters that only visible sat products can provide? I can't ken this happening for so long before for GOES East.
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Your forced to work in that? From COD: WTF? Where is the sight now?
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Mine is 285, by far the highest I've ever seen. Looking out in the pitch I see what looks like fog particles and falling, but its likely another 3 let word. WUN keeps getting got that there is rain nearby or that its possible - its picking up the radar artifacts from the ash up in the sky. God help us if it actually rains.
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My RH freakishly stayed around 85% most of the aft til 5:30 pm when it finally began to drop. Yesterday mid-aft it was 45%. The temp very slowly creeped up only to 24C - not surprisingly. Off by 5-6C. Any item with fabric felt damp still as if it never aired out from the morning dew. Looking at broad radar, I suspect there is a very long teleconnection happening all the way from Dauphin MB to Syracuse NY!!! Its a thick weak band that fragments at times. Never seen anything like that.
