Torchageddon

I wonder if its going to be warmer on 'mas day than it was this past June 18th? It was in the low 50s mid-aft that day.

After some showers and a dip to 24C/76F today, this will be the coldest day for the foreseeable future. My next heat event starts on Sunday with Tues back to 33C/90F. This has been a hot July.

Perfect summer day here, 29C/84F with a touch of humidity and mainly blue skies but started clouding up at an odd time: 4pm. Typically its 10am. The next 4 days will also be similar with consistent highs and lows. This is the regime I wish was around always.

YYZ is up to 36C/98F with a humidex of 48. There is a fast MCS outflow heading towards me, some new gen from that is among the most rapid I've seen. Hourlies of course didn't show much chance earlier for any.

Yesterday I had a late day rally up to 33C but I still wasn't uncomfortable even cycling in the evening. Then the power went out for 5 hours, I was still good. I wake up this morning, I'm not good. It is soup time of 90s by 10am, TWN has me at 35C humidex of 47 coming - if the power goes out again

Woke up to 24C/77F maybe locally more like 25C as of 7:30, I see CU in the distance with minor haze - that's my kind of morning! Low of 21C only. They adjusted for 44 humidex.

Short term forecast was mainly cloudy this aft, I know not what the pops % were but it was pretty low. Gets dark at noon, find light to mod rain coming fast outta nowhere. This is the 2nd worst short term peg this year. The aft is cooked. My 7 day is changing wildly run to run so any precip is a pure guess.

Tues the 30th looks to be the hottest showing 35C/94F with a staggering humidex of 47! That is rare and unlikely to verify but my guess is 44. That's going to be a real beat down since we're still not used to any heat. Also impressive is the string of very warm lows maybe 4 nights at 23C+.

It'll be nice not to have to wear slippers and a hoodie indoors, I have 9 months of that to endure as is; I don't need more of that in summer ffs.

Yeah mid-day it wasn't loading much. They must have done some maintenance as now the 'yes' emoji shows up instead of a generic broken icon. Anyone else following the insanity in Europe with their heatwave? Paris may have 6 days near 40C/104F in a row!

If I was any good at stats I'd tot the anomaly from the state avg, and the sigmas. Its been a long time since OH valley has been the center of the action; I ken when I was young tornado alley included IL, IN, OH.

Stupid X posts won't allow me to see the og images so I can't find out what Z is . I feel there is a parallel to IL's insane tor numbers, what state had numbers to the moon one year? AL in 2011?

ILC081-191-212300- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260621T2300Z/ Wayne IL-Jefferson IL- 522 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 522 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Bluford, or 11 miles northeast of Mount Vernon, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Just another day in Illinois, Intense to violent tornado ripping through. Wicked debris ball.

My temp is 13C/55F with a windchill of 11 at 3pm on June 18. Lake effect rains.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED: 4:31 PM JUN. 17, 2026 – ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA Strong winds, heavy rain and thunderstorms tonight. What: Strong southwesterly wind gusts. Rainfall amounts in excess of 40 mm. Risk of severe thunderstorms. When: Beginning early this evening continuing into Thursday morning. Additional information: Showers are expected early this evening and will intensify as a strong low pressure system approaches the area. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms late this evening and overnight with heavy rain and strong wind gusts being the primary threats. Rainfall amounts of 40 mm or greater are possible as a result of the thunderstorms and showers with this system. Watches or warnings may be issued closer to the event as the path of this low pressure system becomes more certain. First time I've seen in a statement mention on uncertainty with low path, we're only hours away so thats nuts!

On the SPC surface map its 992mb as its been for 4 hours now, currently in SE MN. The Euro had it at 989mb at this time. It'll deepen more overnight near me to 988 so I'm going from 1005 to 989 in 12 hours which of course I've never seen for June here.

This is my fav MD of 2026 so far, a keeper! It feels like that here too, but as long as its not too cloudy during fall vibes I won't be livid.

Another morning, another ripping bow echo at 8am in Iowa!

Both TWN and WUN show far more sun today than the past while and even getting warmish to 23C. TWN has gusts to 80 km/h just after midnight for 3 hr but the sus part is sustained (40 km/h) and gusts are stable during the early hours, there s no way with a strong low and dynamic system like that. Gusts may get even higher. WUN has my lowest at 1am at 989mb. TWN was wildly off with temps this week; about 5C off a few recent days including now.

Loved the sky today, so many storm clouds encircling. Saw multiple anvils, a quick t-storm just 1 flash, then cloudy til 10pm when we got our delayed 1mm of rain. Multi lines in SON today. Heaviest rains in the coming historic days will be during night. 18z Euro has a 984mb low very close to me on Thurs morning, easily the deepest for June. TWN was using David Roth's maps showing the departures.

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

I love those maps, its been a while. I'm surprised in OH valley the rec low slps are that high, and the gradient between central ON and central MI.

The low starts off as 995mb near Alberta then deepens and stays <990mb for the rest of its trek zonally across the continent. I take it that is highly unusual.

I was rummaging through the NWS surface forecast map page, wanted a primer on the symbols and this is what they link for that: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fntcodes2.shtml

It was TS Erin in 2007 over Oklahoma. I have to check but I thought Erin formed around the same spot S of TX as this to-be ghost of Erin but higher intensity over OK than the gulf.