Torchageddon

If I was any good at stats I'd tot the anomaly from the state avg, and the sigmas. Its been a long time since OH valley has been the center of the action; I ken when I was young tornado alley included IL, IN, OH.

Stupid X posts won't allow me to see the og images so I can't find out what Z is . I feel there is a parallel to IL's insane tor numbers, what state had numbers to the moon one year? AL in 2011?

ILC081-191-212300- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260621T2300Z/ Wayne IL-Jefferson IL- 522 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 522 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Bluford, or 11 miles northeast of Mount Vernon, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Just another day in Illinois, Intense to violent tornado ripping through. Wicked debris ball.

My temp is 13C/55F with a windchill of 11 at 3pm on June 18. Lake effect rains.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED: 4:31 PM JUN. 17, 2026 – ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA Strong winds, heavy rain and thunderstorms tonight. What: Strong southwesterly wind gusts. Rainfall amounts in excess of 40 mm. Risk of severe thunderstorms. When: Beginning early this evening continuing into Thursday morning. Additional information: Showers are expected early this evening and will intensify as a strong low pressure system approaches the area. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms late this evening and overnight with heavy rain and strong wind gusts being the primary threats. Rainfall amounts of 40 mm or greater are possible as a result of the thunderstorms and showers with this system. Watches or warnings may be issued closer to the event as the path of this low pressure system becomes more certain. First time I've seen in a statement mention on uncertainty with low path, we're only hours away so thats nuts!

On the SPC surface map its 992mb as its been for 4 hours now, currently in SE MN. The Euro had it at 989mb at this time. It'll deepen more overnight near me to 988 so I'm going from 1005 to 989 in 12 hours which of course I've never seen for June here.

This is my fav MD of 2026 so far, a keeper! It feels like that here too, but as long as its not too cloudy during fall vibes I won't be livid.

Another morning, another ripping bow echo at 8am in Iowa!

Both TWN and WUN show far more sun today than the past while and even getting warmish to 23C. TWN has gusts to 80 km/h just after midnight for 3 hr but the sus part is sustained (40 km/h) and gusts are stable during the early hours, there s no way with a strong low and dynamic system like that. Gusts may get even higher. WUN has my lowest at 1am at 989mb. TWN was wildly off with temps this week; about 5C off a few recent days including now.

Loved the sky today, so many storm clouds encircling. Saw multiple anvils, a quick t-storm just 1 flash, then cloudy til 10pm when we got our delayed 1mm of rain. Multi lines in SON today. Heaviest rains in the coming historic days will be during night. 18z Euro has a 984mb low very close to me on Thurs morning, easily the deepest for June. TWN was using David Roth's maps showing the departures.

Any record (anywhere) of when it did? Or is that too arbitrary for any stat collect?

I love those maps, its been a while. I'm surprised in OH valley the rec low slps are that high, and the gradient between central ON and central MI.

The low starts off as 995mb near Alberta then deepens and stays <990mb for the rest of its trek zonally across the continent. I take it that is highly unusual.

I was rummaging through the NWS surface forecast map page, wanted a primer on the symbols and this is what they link for that: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fntcodes2.shtml

It was TS Erin in 2007 over Oklahoma. I have to check but I thought Erin formed around the same spot S of TX as this to-be ghost of Erin but higher intensity over OK than the gulf.

I just came here to ask exactly that, never seen anything like that on a modal run; I'm got. Would the NHC declare it like that TD over Senegal all those years ago if it meets criteria?

Many members of this subforum under tornado warnings currently.

The CC drop is immense on it. Those traffic cams with the dark ominous blue hue reminds me of the joplin vid where that trucker drives into it, the sky goes from modest dark to total pitch black darkness.

I can't imagine IMBY getting a ripping bow echo at 8am like what southern IA is experiencing currently.

There were some bands of virga with nearly nothing so no 10mm at 5pm, now its 9 where I was suppose to get heavy storms; I see overcast and now light showers . For nearly a week out 2 agencies forecasting storms all aft and eve, and I don't even hear thunder. Storms nixed for Weds as well. I love these busts.

It is a blister of a day out there, the humidity after this dry spell feels like the sky is drubbing you! 29C/84F with a humidex of 38 likely, wow. I foresaw a delay of possible storms til after 5pm and TWN revised their rain from 25-30 to 5mm in line with WUN.

This Thurs may be the best chance for something decent (nothing like the main risk areas tho) IMBY as everything in 2026 except 2 storms in Mar has been pathetic, and all but 1 between midnight and 3am.

The warmup this morning is rapid - already 23C/76F and totally blue skies still somehow with the higher humidity and approaching clouds/storms later. It was suppose to be overcast by now, finally a reversal.

I get excited when there is hail lasting several mins, 85 mins is ott. Same with the cloudburst. Purple rain & lightning glow. Dream shot. Also lasted.

I got some meger rain last evening 3mm instead of 8, at one point WUN had me at 27mm/1" which I waved off. Nil overnight but any rain has been removed for today just overcast til 2pm then partly sunny for the rest of the weekend! For a while it showed a washout weekend like 2 weeks ago now just a blip. A dream pattern is shortly setting up with heat and 2 days of storm potential mid-week. Isolated storms so far with 8mm of rain mid-Tues.