Torchageddon

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening. A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64, across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late evening. ...Coastal South-Central California... Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward. ..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026

Even the rec boxes are sizeably confused! My temp reminded at 1C so I didn't collect more ice, whew. Very wet today, maybe 20mm over the last 36 hr. I had a wave of real freezing rain at 9pm race through which coated all surfaces once I was -1C, a peek at what ick would've been in store had this precip been at night.

Steady mod rains since 6am, I already see a glaze on roads and higher surfaces despite it being near 1C/33F. I hope WUN is correct with lower precip and stoppage at 2pm. There was a brief flicker 2 hr ago. I turned the heat way up.

1-1.5 cm/.5-.75" of ice forecast here, come on Not to mention the unholy winds during mid-day.

Thank you for all the details, much appreciated!

I did not have this on my bingo card for today, really besotted. Most insane is the rates, may even have had higher rates than anything I've seen. The LES on radar does look different from the bands I normally get and Huron's belts get. Its very cold but there is more dynamics I'd like to learn about on W Lake Ontario. What station was the 19.5" record in '44 from? The MSN using YYZ and touting the record snowiest day from that but sounds like they smudged the narrative. The storm was a bust here, only a few cm if that but days ago 20cm was pegged, while Toronto got their diamond!

Issued: 4:39 PM Jan. 18, 2026 – Environment and Climate Change Canada Snow squalls beginning overnight. Blizzard Monday afternoon and evening. What: Blizzard conditions with near zero visibility. Westerly winds gusting 70 to 90 km/h. Wind chills between minus 20 and minus 25. Snowfall accumulations of 20 to 40 cm. Locally higher amounts possible. When: Snow squalls beginning overnight. Blizzard conditions Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Heaviest snowfall amounts expected Monday night into Tuesday. Additional information: Lake effect snow squalls will begin overnight. Strong westerly winds will develop Monday afternoon, producing blizzard conditions in blowing snow. Winds and blowing snow will diminish Monday evening, however, snow squalls will continue into Tuesday. ### Travel will be dangerous and likely impossible due to near-zero visibility. Road closures are possible. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to [email protected] or post reports on X using #ONStorm. For more information about the alerting program, please visit: https://www.canada.ca/en/services/envi This will mainly be for the northern Bruce peninsula i.e. Blizz. This is a terribly constructed 'Orange' warning for a blizzard; it doesn't specify that the heaviest snow is in the far north spots. In contrast, southern Bruce county is set to receive 5cm aft and eve (TWN). It doesn't label it as a 'lake effect blizzard' which this is (I'm doubtful I'll meet the criteria). It contradicts itself with the timing stating it will go on in the evening in one section then stating blowing snow will diminish Mon eve!

Still amused that my best t-storms now are in April not mid-summer. This may be the case in other parts of the US but historically not here with the lakes being as cold as they are and other reasons. There has been only 1 storm that struck fear in me mid-summer in the last 5-8 years and it was that cell that moved from the NW. This pattern has been anything but boring in the belts - great for LES here, I'm getting more than pegged.

I've already exceeded the total daily snow forecast (at 9am no less) just in the needle streamer that dumped on me, its connecting to lake Ontario. 2-3" was expected. The sun came out for all to shovel and plow before it wiggled back over. 50-60cm/20-24" drifts in the driveway. Too bad about the melt and the rain on Sunday, if it was snow this would match last Dec's snowpack and be another snowmageddon. A diamond of a December nonetheless.

I woke to a new snowpack that basically in 24hr restored most of what I lost during the major rain and thaw . Intense LES band over me currently giving major vibes! Suppose to get 1-2" but hoping for more if we're going to be smothered in snow anyhow. I can't stop looking out the window at the pour

What is extraordinary is my hourlies from WUN show snow falling every hour til 2pm on Jan 1!! A hour won't go by without flakes for the rest of the year...

I got 1"/27mm of rain yesterday. With the intense LES of 8"/20cm and awesomely my new years eve was charged up to 10"/25cm, will be the most intense winter wx for the final days of any year I've ken. Tomorrow 7cm and still breezy has a sum of 20" in the next 72 hr!! Consensus still giving me snow every day til Jan 6.

Got down to 985mb here although that might be my wx station tripping as it hasn't budged from 987 for 5+ hr. Woke up to loud winds, snow started at 7:40 and every min got worse as the intense LES is starting to smother all of the Huron shoreline! I'm already getting some blowing snow after the glacier with nada 45 mins ago. SN+, hope to see Blizz conditions at some point. Oddly the winds aren't as strong as 5am..yet. My dendrites are also choice so I believe in the 8" forecast.

I'm not getting the blizz but was wide-eyed once I checked on my local, an inch of rain for just today then 8" of snow right on Monday! Enormous precip amounts! The roads are already icy from the freezing rain on Boxing Day - this is going to exacerbate the mess.