Torchageddon

Almost had a home run on the SPC with a risk for all day slots except Day 8 - Broyles didn't contour the last and most elusive.

After weeks of dark gloom and overcast, yesterday was supposed to be partly sunny clearing in the afternoon instead the entire day was a shart mood. It was warm 17°C/64F in the morning then it fell to 5C by 4:00 p.m. Today its dark and raining and far colder than forecast at 5C. The nightmare just goes on. This is worse than any period in the winter because there was all that snow on the ground to reflect more light and in general there was more sun. The brightness even when it was overcast was higher so the sustained level of low lux is deviant - which is how I'm starting to feel. Looking at the 7 day makes me want to puke!! I'm getting an outlandish amt of rain too, somewhere around 70mm/3" this week.

The disparity between us in the eastern great lakes and west or lower Ohio valley was huge for the last half. The last few weeks really sullied my impression. can't wait to see the temp anom maps.

My station showing I got to 20C/70F for the first time this year, WUN has 19C. UW got to their first 20C - I was a few weeks off from predicting it! Sun is out, summer feel after a nightmare 2nd half of March. My forecast high for today was 15C yesterday, 16C this morning. I was hankering for a 20 today; we were given a break.

That's like the panic of El Reno 2013 and Hurricane Rita - recent disaster spooks many.

In theme with the record shattering heat in the west-central US, I eye Flagstaff AZ to find they got to 29C/84F yesterday the 20th! The WUN avg shows 12C and the daily record of 21C...beat the record by 8C/18F+!?

It was -11C this morning, chill of ~-18C. Woke to see whiteouts. With those winds I wouldn't be shocked if there were blizzard conditions in rural spots. I prefer the wx I had 14 years ago where it was 24C and partly sunny.

There is a part missing, and I don't think he paused or stopped the recording in the middle of a tornado. I have props for one who stands outside in a wedge.

I just realized, why is the March 2012 heat blamed for all the damage when it was the cold in Apr that did the deed? Blame that solely. If it stays above seasonal, no freeze after, the woe would be averted but nature likes to 'balance things out' a bit too enthusiastically. I had an ask back then if it was possible to have a pattern with Mar 2012, then Apr/May being avg to above as well. I was told 'no'. With that kind of certainty of flip, would it be such a lock that an expert would bet their savings on Apr/May being below normal in the Great Lakes region?

Do you recall what articles they were? I have an interest in studying the March 2012 event like where the return rates touted came from, sigmas, air charts, etc. Maybe the jist of their thought was more extremes in the future that are outside the bell curve not literally similar March heatwaves like that; any pub that predicts such would be a rag IMO. Even with a rapidly warming climate I have a hard time believing March 2012 will be repeated much, if any in our lifetimes. Different date/place like the Pacific NW event in June 2021 sure.

Why is it that heavy snow/blizzards don't convey well on camera - even 4K? Its never like seeing it IRL.

I was just looking into the 2021 Pacific NW heatwave recently; testing AI to see what it spit out regarding most extreme wx events and it was included. How sigmas and standard deviations come to be disseminated. The range is huge for a return rate but most certainly for events like the 2003 Euro heatwave, March 2012, and Jun 2021 they were 1 in 1000s of years magnitude using the current 30 year climate avg. If you use the pre-industrial climate benchmark (ice core sample data?) the 2021 heatwave might be a 1 in 150,000 year event!

Getting the worst lightning storm (frequent, prolific) I've experienced so early currently, just incredible. Its 4C and dropping, DP of 3C. 200+ strikes in 40 mins. 10mm in less than a hr I still have 5-8 inches snow on most grass with large snow piles. I don't know if its Mar 11 or the 12th but 14 years ago about this time I got one of my only severe t-storms since 2010 which crazily may be the only other frequent lightning event so early (kicked off the great March heatwave). I had sizable hail during that one, no hail in this ongoing storm.

So far under performing temp wise its 9C, sic at nox it was 7C not 13C! Getting the heavier rains and some thunder - steam whisping off the banks. TWN had a curr temp of 15C when I was really at 10C - disparity of uncouth proportions. Some flurries are possible tonight.

TWN adjusted Sat's high to 16C . The 'storms' came through earlier than expected; got 3-4 flashes with one flickering 15 times among the wimps.