olafminesaw

Comparison of GFS, UKMET and Euro (0z) Compari

Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet.

Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland.

There's swath of 20-30" of rain near the coast on the GFS. The Euro and UKMET had totals over 40" . The freshwater flooding alone is going to be worse than Mathew somewhere.

Great analysis here (It continues in the comments below the tweet): https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312

The visible loop shows the eye just about cleared out apart from some Cirrus.

To kick off the 0z models, the ICON takes a pretty decent shift to the left with a landfall around Cape Lookout.

Well, part of the problem has to be that no one discusses tropical unless it poses a threat to the US. So if the unwritten rules haven't been written before things get crazy, there are basically no rules

Just for funzies, I made an ugly landfall probability map

And an unpleasant track for New Orleans to boot.

The EPac has surpassed its average annual ACE of 132, with Lane up to 34. It may even approach Hector's total if it can keep itself together for a while.

I bet they won't upgrade simply as to not cause undue panic for Hawaii.

I couldn't find much either. This site has some very nice imagery, but it doesn't update frequently http://www.metoc.navy.mil/fnmoc/tropical.html

From the WPC heavy rainfall discussion, flash flooding a concern again today: PWs near 2 inches (2.5 standard deviations above normal) and modest deep-layer instability should support organized convection along and ahead of the boundary. Lift will be enhanced by a pre-frontal mid-level shear axis and broadly diffluent flow between the retrograding upper ridge and trough moving across east-central Canada. Meanwhile, the uptick in sw-wsw low level flow ahead of the surface front (25-30 kts) will foster backbuilding convection and cell training, especially over the Slight risk region later this afternoon and evening when the low-level inflow exceeds and becomes more parallel to the 850-300 mb mean wind (Corfidi vectors in opposite direction of the low-level inflow, thus bolstering upwind propagation). In addition, much of the Slight risk area (especially western PA and eastern OH) has lower FFG given the wet antecedent soils. In fact, the latest (00Z) HREF 40 km neighborhood probabilities of 3 hourly QPF exceeding the FFG peak between 50-60% across far eastern OH and western PA between 21-00Z this afternoon and evening.

It's no surprise there's flash flooding in texas with moisture being pulled from the pacific, the Caribbean, and right off the extra warm gulf

Yet another Arabian peninsula landfall, it's looking rather impressive on satellite and radar.

It comes down to timing and rates. Without both I'm not optimistic. But the high end potential of 6-10" would be epic. I love low probability events when they work out.

Light non-accumulating snow is going to ruin my love of snow I swear. It may as well be drizzle.

It's good to see some decent snow with the deform band on the HRRR. Hours and hours of +/- 40 degree rain has been thoroughly depressing. If this storm were in January we would have probably had an epic sleet storm.

Just a little different, lol

Yes

A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general.

My concern is that there is less cold air aloft than previously modeled. IMBY the column doesn't get colder than 27-28 on the Euro. So I could see flipping back to rain in the lighter precip. (assuming we even get heavy enough precip. to get snow.

It's back (would be a special kind of brutal verbatim IMBY)

Let's get this party started