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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I have a feeling someone is going to get legendary amounts of sleet.
  2. olafminesaw
    I think it has value, simply for the sake of allowing people to discuss the LR pattern in a separate thread, when there's a ton of posts.
  3. olafminesaw
    Wow, hour 192 is stunning. tucked into the coast, stalled out.
  4. olafminesaw
    The positioning of the High suggests it will be further south
  5. olafminesaw
    A big improvement from 6z for most everyone.
  6. olafminesaw
    When you get a deep moisture feed, with a high pressing down it's a phenomenal pattern, regardless of what the indices are.
  7. olafminesaw
    The crazy thing, is how cold the FV3 GFS is already at the surface. It won't take a perfect track. A less than ideal track would make for a lot more sleet than modeled I imagine, because there are so often sneaky warm layers with transfers. Even if things trend pretty far north, we should get something on the front end, which is a big bonus. You know you're in a good spot when you're equally worried about suppression as you are it coming to far north.
  8. olafminesaw
  9. olafminesaw
    Much more reasonable FV3 map, to balance out the general clownishness around here. I would take this to the bank. Of course, we still have an eternity for things to go wrong, never forget that.
  10. olafminesaw
    Still, seems like an improvement, with the possibility of a transfer, much like the FV3
  11. olafminesaw
    Much faster, which should be better, with the positioning of the High
  12. olafminesaw
    There's also a lot of borderline soundings, where his algorithm is counting as snow, but there's no point splitting hairs at this point. When it comes down to forecasting closer to the event, it's probably better not to rely on snow maps, but do qpf frame by frame with precip type based on soundings.
  13. olafminesaw
    Substantially stronger High at 138, bodes well.
  14. olafminesaw
    So many days to go...
  15. olafminesaw
    A nasty ice storm on the back end. 8 hours or so of fairly heavy freezing rain, with temps in the upper 20s for the triad.
  16. olafminesaw
    Wunderground is calling for 1-3" of snow on Wednesday. I guess a dusting to an inch or so is probably the ceiling, with good rates needing to overcome temps in the mid thirties. The timing is perfect on the GFS, so that would help. Any snow is a win in December. I just moved here, so I'm not sure about local climo, but it would seem, the mountains often would steal snow with this kind of little clipperish thing. Edit: Although Now I see it has more to do with the Coastal low, which seems like reasonably optimistic set up.
  17. olafminesaw
    Sure, why not DCA: 17.3" BWI: 19.4" IAD: 23.5" RIC: 9.8" SBY: 8.7"
  18. olafminesaw
    Nasty
  19. olafminesaw
    If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand).
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0:
  22. olafminesaw
    3" per hour rain rates
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, it's a little out of it's range though. If it sticks to it's guns through 6z, then I'm all in for 60-70 ( east of the triad anyway).
  24. olafminesaw
    And when you get run to run consistency from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.
  25. olafminesaw
    I don't think I've seen a troll have this much success since way back around the time the internet troll was invented.
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