olafminesaw

With the majority of the rain behind us, time to look ahead to Monday to our next severe threat. Not a particularly high ceiling, but looks like it could be an enhanced type day if the timing is right ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats.

Not under a tree, probably like 10 feet from the edge of canopy. I was thinking maybe it collects water and gets blown into the gauge.

Just got a new basic rain gauge recently, reporting over 3.5" on the day. I think that's definitely higher than it should be. Local obs and radar suggest 2-2.5". Any ideas why it's so high? I tried to put it in an opening but we have massive oak trees that surely skew the data.

Strong agreement on what could be the wettest week since 2018.

The GEFS actually ticked north at 12z, but in general the trend has not been our friend. I do think Charlotte and South should get enough rain to mitigate drought concerns. And for them mountains many areas will do well as a result of orographic lift.

Pretty intense looking MCS rolling towards Jackson MS now.

A bullseye of over 20" in 24 hrs NW of Spartanburg

Good model agreement on heavy rainfall next week.

I didn't realize how unprecedented tornado outbreaks were in June for Dixie alley. No part of that region has ever gotten a 10% risk (going back to 2006):

Starting to look a little soggy next week with a cutoff low and plenty of moisture

Just curious, does anyone know what city is pictured in the NWS haze icon?

While the GFS is unrealistic in terms of intensity, I'd be a little concerned about a weak tropical system meandering inland and causing flooding. The 12z & 6Z GFS both support this idea, although I kinda expect the GFS to drop the system altogether at some point.

Neat to see the trough highlighted by the smoke on visible

Wow! Frisco pier water temp is currently 69 degrees. Average is 76 and lowest in the POR of 1981-2005 is 73 (per surf-fotecast.com)

Just a little 26 degree difference between models 3 days out

Seems a little suspect, could get almost chilly this Thursday

If you guessed the following, your entry has a duplicate value with another entry(at least as far as I managed to not fat finger in excel): 11/5/2 (3x), 12/5/2, 13/5/1, 13/5/2, 15/7/3, 16/5/2, 16/7/4

With pressure outside the circulation being unusually low, around 1008mb, there's not much of a gradient.

Looks like the warmest it's going to get in Greensboro, in the month of May is 84 degrees (happened to also be 84 in April/March as well weirdly enough.) This is the coolest May by this metric since 1983. Less remarkable in terms of average temp, only a couple degrees below average

I just want one official forecast discussion to refer to weather conditions as "a vibe", lol

Looks like it's trying to complete the most seamless erc in the history of mab

This is from yesterday.

Plenty of banding per microwave. I was thinking that annular cyclones have a somewhat lower intensity ceiling?