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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Recon reporting a much more organized storm this morning. Well defined center, pressure down towards 1002 mb, LLC had been pulled under the robust convection
  2. olafminesaw
    Land interaction actual may help it to wind up at that approach angle, at least for a while. The island is small enough to not choke off the storm too much unless it gets really close
  3. olafminesaw
    Also worth noting the GFS is an outlier against it's own ensembles
  4. olafminesaw
    Actually some consensus starting to emerge. Aside from the stubborn GFS of course
  5. olafminesaw
    The Google models have been really consistent
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil
  8. olafminesaw
    And the Sandhills all the way to near the coast. Just inland from Jaxonville got down into the upper 30s
  9. olafminesaw
    Alas seems pretty paltry West of I95
  10. olafminesaw
    Pretty crazy how closely 2015 matches to this season
  11. olafminesaw
    Could be the first season since 2015 without a land falling US hurricane. Ironic given that 2015 featured Joaquin, which like Imelda was forecasted to hook into the coast from the Bahamas a few days out but exited stage right instead
  12. olafminesaw
    No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI
  13. olafminesaw
    I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed
  14. olafminesaw
    Models haven't really been showing meaningful organization for another 24 hours or so, so we appear to be on track
  15. olafminesaw
    Pretty grim for a mean
  16. olafminesaw
    I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform
  17. olafminesaw
    A bit more towards the stalled solution, with Humberto and Imelda's latitude closer together
  18. olafminesaw
    For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Just over an hour apart
  21. olafminesaw
    All eyes understandably on future Ismerelda, but nice to see a fall chill after. Lows in the mid 40s on the GFS next Friday/Saturday
  22. olafminesaw
    Still more rainfall after this across NC
  23. olafminesaw
    I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown.
  24. olafminesaw
    Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point
  25. olafminesaw
    Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls
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