The HRRR does seem to have a good handle on the sleet line right now and pushes it back south in an hour or two. A possiblity anyway, not sure that I would expect it
Something I never thought about, why do the obs often include mist while snow is falling? Like GSO obs currently read "light snow, mist". Is this to do with the visibility?
There really aren't any models showing precip before around 5pm, but also these overrunning events tend to start 2-3 hours earlier than modeled (at least as far as light flurry action goes)
Even accounting for the NAM being too far north I would be a bit concerned that this is what it's showing not too long after onset in the triad
Weenie phase 2 is here,just 30 minutes later!