olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The North trend is back better than ever. Looks like a great even for the central/Southern VA Piedmont. Still some hope for the Northern NC Piedmont, but fading
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Seems reasonable
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Overall not a good set of runs at 18z for the I40 corridor. Teetering on the edge, so hopefully things will swing back south overnight
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It's been good to see the trend towards a juicier system. At the same time we walk a tightrope where the system maybe trending North pushing the rain snow line north of the VA border. This may not get resolved until precip is falling here in the battle zone (Northern NC Piedmont). Looks great up your way regardless
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I think the RGEM depicts how this will play out with the totals south of the VA border being rate dependent (a dusting for many but locally 2")
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Cold bias in mind, but shows how rates can push the rain, snow, sleet line south. These temp boundaries can yield impressive banding relative to what the global models show, so something to keep in mind. A very tricky forecast with a boom and bust zone likely
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December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow Mountains are a different matter
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We seem to be narrowing in on a higher likelihood of some light snowfall. Lots of details to be ironed out, with uncertainty about moisture and timing which opens the door for a modern moderate impact event (definitely less likely). Any chance for a higher potential coastal storm can probably be ruled out
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Yep, fits well with the rule of thumb that the GFS is often too progressive. One thing we have working for us for once is the northern stream is not going to become dominant with this one
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Likely picking up on some of that CAD ice potential
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The little bit of SER tends to lead me to believe that DC to New England is favored with some CAD potential for the carolinas
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Just a lil ice with an incoming tropical system in the gulf
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Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
olafminesaw replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Looks like EF4 type damage with cinder block construction torn down. This area was in the "weaker" western eyewall. At a similar altitude to where that 250 mph wind gust was measured -
Would rather get this out of the way early.
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Dumping cold over Texas instead of spreading East? We break this curse eventually right?
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Gives you an idea of how rare snowfall of any amount is outside the mountains in the first half of November (this data set is 1970-2024)
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Neat to see the cold air pushing clouds away from Florida.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Florida-truecolor-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Looking at traffic cams, up to half an inch or so accumulated in Eastern NC!
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Flurry reports coming in ahead of schedule
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I can't justify staying up late for this so hoping for a lil dusting to wake up to. I fear it is so dry it will disappear by the morning even if it does stick
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Just for fun
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High of 75 yesterday and a low of 33 this morning at the airport, really impressive drop. In fact it is tied for the biggest 16 hour drop in temp since 1960 in the month of November
