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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Models are notorious for under doing moisture associated with robust ULLs. I think the Western ULL piece will over perform West of 85 and the coastal generally underperform
  2. olafminesaw
    Already a dusting at GSO, bodes well as that frontogenesis gets cranking
  3. olafminesaw
    https://x.com/jackendrickwx/status/2017357675755933951?s=20 Really cool, you can see the trough diving down and starting to tilt
  4. olafminesaw
  5. olafminesaw
    I know the RAP sucks, but why not
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    I corrected the gradients between the zones
  8. olafminesaw
    My forecast map (first time I've done one of these I think)
  9. olafminesaw
    I think the hires NAM has stumbled upon a pretty realistic depiction of how this will play out. ULL max zone, coastal crush zone. Screw zone in between. Maybe cut precip totals by 25-50% overall and call it a day. Screw zone location TBD depending on timing, trough tilt etc.
  10. olafminesaw
    The HRRR is really only good for taking radar trends as the event unfolds (under 8 hours) and creating a kind of future radar projection. And for thermal profiles. I wish they had never made it run past 18 hours
  11. olafminesaw
    The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol.
  12. olafminesaw
    They are doing damage control for it/when the forecast busts. I get the get blowback, and especially after last week's storm they are sensitive to their viewer's response if the forecast busts. But ultimately it's bad forecasting to pick the models with the lowest amounts and find justification for why it's going to be correct
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah I mean I would say the trend is meaningful and somewhere in the Piedmont is likely to get the dry slot. At the same time, the HRRR and 3km NAM solutions just don't quite pass the sniff test. Not sure they are handling the ULL/phase correctly. It's more concerning for the Triad. I think the Triangle gets the coastal/WAA banding and should hit 3"+ no problem
  14. olafminesaw
    For sure. Better for the Triangle and points East. May dry slot the Triad
  15. olafminesaw
    HRRR is running. Dry and a late start so far East of 77, but starting to crank by late morning
  16. olafminesaw
    The cliff diving thread is going to be hopping Tommorow morning
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    In case it wasn't abundantly clear, that is the edge of the model's domain being that it is a Canadian model
  19. olafminesaw
    The Hires RGEM. Did far and away the best with our last storm
  20. olafminesaw
    There's definitely some models that support that dry slot. It makes sense but it's kinda a 50/50 at this point
  21. olafminesaw
    People going to be calling bust tomorrow morning when there is expected to be a massive dry slot over central NC with banding to the NW. Going to have to be patient and wait for everything to fill in and pivot, just something to keep in mind
  22. olafminesaw
    Gorgeous. Almost the whole state at 6"+
  23. olafminesaw
    Do we need to start a separate thread?
  24. olafminesaw
    Getting down into the low to mid 20s overnight with full cloud cover is really impressive. Just goes to show how potent the airmass we are working with is
  25. olafminesaw
    The RGEM has the look of a model locked in, fairly small shifts over the past 4 runs.
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