olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Here's what the CPC put out in May. We should end up slightly above average I think for the whole summer so not bad
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Ensembles project it at second coolest of this century. Behind 2004. Greensboro is project at coolest since 1996
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Yes! Trying to confirm that you are correct in observation that such sustained high humidity is unusual, not to be pedantic (although I know if anywhere, this is the place to be pedantic)
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Looks like a fishy reading but technically Savannah-Hilton head airport dropped to a dewpoint of 62 on Monday, breaking the streak of dewpoint at or above 68 degrees, which ranks third highest all time
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I believe it is what is known as a long lived concentric eyewall. I would not expect a traditional ERC to occur as the outer eyewall is so large.
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Yep, the GFS is showing the biggest waves pushing in between 6 pm and 4 am
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It seems like highest winds are in banding outside the center, so they may be making the assumption that since they haven't fully sampled the storm they are missing the highest winds. Especially with how impressive the pressure is. Makes me wonder if they need to mix up the flight pattern a bit to get better data, not only on max intensity but the size of the wind-field.
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Pressure dropped about 5 mb between passes.
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Yeah, I've seen this with some WPAC hurricanes where it builds a massive outer eyewall which has hurricane force winds and the inner eyewall remains quite weak relative to the pressure.
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Wide view
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Just uniquely stunning this morning.
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The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see.
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Seems reasonable. May get sheared apart, but more likely will be steady state for it's closest approach to the coast before moving over cooler SSTs.
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Erin has gone from looking like a West Pacific beast to a West Pacific beast as it drifts off shore of Tokyo. A shell of it's former self. Scrambled eggos.
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A halficane! That is the worst looking cat 4 I've ever seen structurally (realistically has probably dropped back down to cat 3). Should put the lid on intensity, probably for the rest of Erin's truck across the Atlantic
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IR appearance has degraded considerably in the last hour or two. Trying to complete an ERC and probably feeling more of the shear now. May gradually weaken until shear can abate
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This is phenomenal! My only feedback so far is it would be nice to have a little dot that shows you what you are selecting on the interactive graph that moves with your cursor. I agree that optimized for mobile would be nice too, but this is so much more detailed than the TT site (if a little more visually cluttered). The nicest new feature is being able to see all the center fixes history. Will be super helpful for judging storm motion, especially for land falling hurricanes
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50kt winds are showing nearly 300 Nautical miles across on the GFS on it's closest pass to the NC coast. Tropical storm force winds will be 470 nautical miles across. Any idea where this will rank in terms of IKE?
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Hold up...do I spy another ERC?
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Recon flying circles in the eye, pressure in the mid to upper 930s. Back up to around 120 kts
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The forecast track really hasn't shifted all that much over the last few days when taking into consideration that it would have taken a few hundred miles in shift to bring direct impacts to the coast Edit: by direct impacts I mean getting into the core of the storm. The impacts of beach erosion will likely be moderate to severe, which is definitely impacted by any westward shifts)
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It really looked like the inner eyewall was trying to weaken last night, but now it's seemingly strengthening and the outer eyewall growing larger/weaker. Very strange
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Hard to discern what is going on wet the ERC. Usually the outer eyewall contract, but in this case it seems lt be doing the opposite
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Unsurprisingly, a double wind maxima showing up now
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