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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. Pressure data from a buoy on the edge of the eye sugguests sub-900mb pressure
  2. Obviously Taiwan is used to heavy rainfall in the higher terrain on the East side of the island, but 20+40" of rainfall is going to cause some serious flooding I can only imagine.Also check out that rain shadow!
  3. Yeah it's mostly machine learning data correlations and such as far as I've heard, but I'm not sure that the specifics are really well understood by the weather community anyway. Actually there was a little segment about the deep mind and Isiais on NPR this morning and they were saying how mostly the project is worked on by non-meteorologist, not even programers with meteorology experience, mostly neural network engineers
  4. Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win
  5. I'm inclined to believe what we were seeing on radar in terms of a moat was just a massive feeder band rather than an outer eyewall
  6. Yes! That was a couple years ago if I am thinking of the same one
  7. Oh yeah, crazy differences for ~4 days out. Bodes well for winter tracking!
  8. The CFS weeklies agree on the timeframe of the shift to a wetter than normal period. The long range GEFS is showing more near normal
  9. Counting only hurricanes making landfall at hurricane strength between the western panhandle and tampa: 17-26 5 07-16 1 97-06 2 87-96 2 77-86 1 67-76 3
  10. Yeah it's always been November but I kinda expected more of a ramp up. Maybe that was a false expectation
  11. Raleigh was squarely in the screw zone this time around
  12. I think there's going to be two factors at play leading to steady state through landfall: baroclonic forcing leading to pressure drop (seeing now), and shear weakening one half of the storm allowing dry air in and an expansion of the wind field
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