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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Hmmm. What gives them confidence in high winds that far out? Seems odd. Doesn't seem to be a particularly strong storm signal or anything.
  2. olafminesaw
    Lol, are we sure it's not January? A model battle between GFS CMC ICON vs Euro, UKMET, RGEM, north trend south trend disagreement, low tracking of the coast of Florida? But what about sun angle?
  3. olafminesaw
    Not liking the northern cutoff. Often sharper than modeled
  4. olafminesaw
    Still running near record low precip since October
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    Thought y'all might get a kick out of this
  7. olafminesaw
    Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course
  8. olafminesaw
    I agree to a point, but it seems likely we will get multiple opportunities over the next two weeks. Sometimes a few .5" rainfalls is better than one big 2" rainfall for busting drought. Hopefully we can stop the bleeding anyway
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    Not way out in fantasy range anymore
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    Last few runs of the Euro AI have just been comical
  13. olafminesaw
    Euro vs EL nino climo. I think slightly below normal starting in May is a good bet. Which honestly isn't the worst outcome to keep the drought from accelerating.
  14. olafminesaw
  15. olafminesaw
    More like :
  16. olafminesaw
    King Euro AI would have to agree
  17. olafminesaw
    Ties the all time DSCI record for the SE region previously set 12-18-2007
  18. olafminesaw
    How many inches in my back yard?
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Somewhat lower odds of a washout in the 10-14 day timeframe we are watching, but odds continue to increase for at least some rainfall
  22. olafminesaw
    Glued to every model cycle from here on out, we can reel this fantasy range rainstorm in
  23. olafminesaw
    The Mariana islands gets just about as many high end typhoons as anywhere else I nthe world. Saipan took a direct hit from a cat 5 back in 2018. I am guessing that Saipan didn't get much above cat 2 winds from this, with maybe some higher gusts. Good timing with the ERC.
  24. olafminesaw
    Some signs of a pattern change, but I fear this will just keep getting kicked back
  25. olafminesaw
    My forecast for Saturday is 94 with a dewpoint in the low 50s, flash drought conditions under any circumstances
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