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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off
  2. olafminesaw
    I would expect one more significant ramp up tonight before it hits the shredder Tommorow
  3. olafminesaw
  4. olafminesaw
    Loving this approach, feel like the NHC should adopt something like this
  5. olafminesaw
    Seems to be strengthening around the solar minima fighting back shear with convection then levels out as soon as convection starts to die down during the daytime.
  6. olafminesaw
    HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall
  7. olafminesaw
    Yup ...
  8. olafminesaw
    Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave:
  9. olafminesaw
    Yeah the center is squarely under the convective burst ongoing at the moment, would expect another substantial drop on the next pass
  10. olafminesaw
    Whoa
  11. olafminesaw
    Landfall right along the FL/AL line seems like the best bet right now
  12. olafminesaw
    Who would have thought as of a year or two ago the NHC would already be explicitly using AI models as part of their forecast in 2026 (courtesy of Google, of all entities)
  13. olafminesaw
    Yeah, convection will likely win the battle and pull/consolidate the llc, but it may take time (12+ hrs) before this really starts taking off
  14. olafminesaw
    It's easy to forget because of our unprecedented streak of strengthening hurricanes at landfalls in the GOM, but I remember how in the early 2000s it felt inevitable that significant weakening would occur at landfall along the GOM coast
  15. olafminesaw
    Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right?
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    And the GFS has folded like a house of cards
  18. olafminesaw
    The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Depending on the track, shear could be a net neutral, even allowing for strengthening through landfall as the shear vector is aligned with the storms track if it tracks more to the East/faster.
  21. olafminesaw
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu
  24. olafminesaw
  25. olafminesaw
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