I think those winds are overdone for Western areas. Obviously overdone for the Valley, but I think we always build that caveat in. Also wondering how much dry air is gonna get pushed down through the valley if we get sustained winds over 20mph?
Interested to see how high Kevin and some of the higher Connecticut spots gust. You should be howling pretty good at your location.
The issue will be for WOR a move of 50 miles makes a sensible difference.
You are a lot further south than me so should almost be guaranteed double digits there. Again, though, I won’t discount deformation band potential for either of us.
I do think there’s a shot for my area to get a few hours of decent deformation, which is what will be needed to get us into double digits here.
Some of the model showed banding pretty far west over the interior.
I mean, it’s hard to ignore the globals, but the meso’s holding firm is obviously in our favor.
You’re in a pretty good spot. I’ve seen this dance before out this way so I keep my expectations in check.
The big variable will be how wound up and compact this gets, and how fast it ends up moving. That will be the difference for widespread amounts over 20 inches.
I think the 15”-20” is most reasonable call for Eastern areas. I’ll be happy if Greenfield can crack 10”.