CAD_Wedge_NC

Good bye to La Nina! I think we have had enough of SE ridges. Let's hope for a weak El Nino.

15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

06z GEFS snow mean. Again looks great for us in the mountains.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I have not had a snow mean that high all winter. Let's hope the American models are right on this one. The GFS has lead the way so far. Can we finally reel one in?

On 2/4/2023 at 9:19 AM, nchighcountrywx said:

Mount Washington recorded a new record low of -47.1 breaking the old record from 1963 of -32.

Prior to last night our historical -34 degree temperature in January 1987 when the stratosphere reached Mount Mitchell had them beat.

 

 

No, Mt Washington's all-time record low has always been lower than anything in NC (-47F in 1934). The -47.1F recorded this weekend is now their new All-time number. That -32F was only a record for this day, not their all-time record. Hope this clears the confusion.

TEMPERATURES (°F)

19 hours ago, Grayman said:

If you weenies would have jumped early like I did you would not be in so much pain. After Dec bust I stopped listened to all the gurus about pattern change blah blah blah and I cliff dove. Winter is over and has been . 

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's still January...... SMH.

27 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Looks like everyone will be pulling up a seat in the sanitarium soon enough. Not good.

Yeah, I felt sure things would be looking up by the end of January...... doesn't look promising anymore.

3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

While some are lamenting that winter is done and dead, we likely are about to experience a week with multiple chances of snow, possibly 3 to be exact. Mt hope is our ski areas have more chances to make snow and some natural to increase their bases. I frankly don't trust what wx Twitter and the model mood swings are selling. I will gladly post pictures throughout the week, if it verifies and be satisfied. 

Yeah, GSP just added "rain and snow likely" to my forecast on Tuesday night down here. Didn't see that coming.

3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I mean I understand people's frustration but it's January the 8th and people are acting like it's the end of the damn world.  It's freaking weather.  If you cannot keep your shit together then don't post....

Are you directing that post at me????

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Bye bye spring especially for us.

Maybe we can dodge most of the severe outbreaks. 

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Also looking at the 12z eps it looks damn good right after the 20th. The eps has been showing this for several runs so hopefully we can see this change come to fruition.  Cmc ensembles are looking great as well and the slow as hell gefs is latching onto the idea.

There is a signal. I'll give you that. I also like where the MJO is headed. Let's get this inside 7 days and then we can breathe a little easier.

It does give us some hope, but it is too far down the road to put any faith in right now. Like to see it inside 7 days.

9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Got to hold onto something.  I think February could surprise a lot of people.  I know typically February's during Nina are torches but I think this year will not be an all out torch. We've seen things change pretty fast this year also.

If the MJO is in phase 4,5 or 6 during February, then you can forget about it being cold. That is pretty much guaranteed in a La Nina.

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Contrary to what the 18Z GFS has, the 18Z GEFS per clown maps is actually the most wintry GEFS for much of NC, N SC, and N GA yet (as of 12Z on 1/14).

Yeah, was just looking at that. Looks like the model is starting to come around. 

Nope, it's just the GFS being clueless. I will not even look at it until we are 72 hours out (been burned too many times). Not saying that the Euro solution will play out, just not buying into the GFS. Remember it was the Euro / UK solution that led the way over the GFS on our Dec non-event and that combo looks pretty good right now.... stay tuned.

6 hours ago, Grayman said:

Thanks for all the input. I punted until February anyway because you can’t just waste a late December pattern like that and put up a goose egg. I enjoy your fact based posting . Happy New Year. February will save the board lol

Only one problem .....  Februarys in a La Nina year typically mean torch city. So, if you are going to punt all of January, might as well punt February too....... Oh, and just food for thought, punting the entire winter on the second day of January is not a wise move. We are all sore about the bitter cold in December with nothing to show for it, however there will still be more chances.

Yeah, with a SSW / PV disruption, you don't know where the cold air will end up. It has hit the east coast in times past and then again, it has only effected the plain states. The only thing you can count on is that cold air will become dislodged and come south. Other than that, it's a crap-shoot.

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

January looks like our typical winter pattern. Warm up-rain-cold front comes through and it cools back down-then it warms up and rains again. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. 

Maybe we can squeeze something in there between those warm-ups.

29 minutes ago, Ja643y said:

Wondering if anyone has looked at Next Friday and think there’s a chance for that to trend better for the region. GFS had an interesting solution at 6z that I imagine wouldn’t be too far fetched to trend for some snow for the Mountains - but then again, I know very little and only spend a month or two a year up here, so don’t know all the nuances. 

Yeah, it's at that "watch the trends" stage right now. However, I believe the higher elevations certainly have a shot with this one.

9 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Man I feel so bad for ski resorts. They’ve had several good winters so I guess they were bound to have a dud before long. This torch is going to kill snowmaking - unless it’s Beech where they’ve installed machines that can generate snow at 50 degrees. 

You are not serious ...... the skis resorts have a deep base right now and they will survive a couple of weeks warmer weather just fine. I promise you that there is plenty of winter to come.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Current (as of 12/25 GEFS) AO prog for Dec 2022: -2.60, which trails only 2009's -3.41 and (barely) 2010's -2.63! 
 
 What does a strongly -AO in Dec suggest for the Jan AO? A very good shot at a sub -1 Jan AO:

 

Strongest 10 Dec -AO/following Jan AO

2009: -3.4/-2.6 6th strongest

2010: -2.6/-1.7

2000: -2.4/-1.0

1995: -2.1/-1.2

2005: -2.1/-0.2

1976: -2.1/-3.8 strongest

1985: -1.9/-0.6

1950: -1.9/-0.1 

1969: -1.9/-2.4 9th strongest

1952: -1.8/-1.0

 

AVG Jan AO after top 10 Dec -AO: -1.5

 

 So, when also incorporating today's GEFS prog, Jan will likely have a sub -1 AO. In addition, the model consensus is suggesting a +PNA for early Jan that intensifies the 2nd week (just confirmed by the 12Z EPS). The MJO is then progged to be on the left side, which tends to favor a +PNA then. That all suggests a decent shot at a moderate or stronger PNA (+0.50+) in Jan. 
 

 At KATL, how were temperature anomalies in January when BOTH the AO was sub -1 and the PNA was +0.5+? (12 of them since 1950)
 

1953, mild +4

1958, cold -4

1961, cold -5

1963, very cold -6

1970, very cold -7

1977, record cold -14

1985, very cold -7

1987, normal -1

1998, mild +3

2010, cold -5

2011, cold -3

2016, normal -1

 

AVG: -4/cold with 8 of 12 cold and only 2 mild

  So, this suggests a 2/3 chance for a cold SE US Jan vs the normal 1/3 chance. Thus, despite the progged mild 1st week of January, the above suggests there's a good shot at actually getting a cold month overall. If so, Jan 8th-31st is liable to be very cold in the SE US to make up for the mild first week.

 Edit fwiw: two of the four non-cold Jan's were during a super El Niño: 1998 and 2016. 1987 was during a moderate El Niño though a moderate Nino tends to be chilly.

Good work, thanks for taking the time to do this research. Looking forward to verification.

18 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

it sure is, no winter in sight

Not true.... pattern looks to re-load 2nd week of Jan.

Down to 10 degrees and still dropping slowly. 

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It’s become really gusty again here. I was dropping quick but stalled at 12. 

Right behind you at 13 degrees here. I estimate at least 5 degrees or lower for a low.

Mount Mitchel currently -11.8. Now that's cold.

Mount Mitchel down to 5 degrees F and falling fast.

14 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Winter 2023-2024 looks promising because it has not used up all its energy yet. See yall in late 2023

You will be back in here .... as soon as there is a winter storm thread.