CAD_Wedge_NC

37 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Almost towel time unless the passage of this front changes model proggs

I agree .... I would let the smoke clear with this FROPA, then see what happens.

9 minutes ago, NC DataDude said:

Ok... My oldness/NCness is going to come out....  It is thundering right now here in JoCo and it is "officially" Winter.   Snow in 10 days or less, right?   LOL  

Hey, I have seen it work before..... never hurts to hope.

Yeah, I am just not feeling good about this one. Once the north trend commences, it rarely trends back south. However, I could be wrong.

11 hours ago, JoshM said:

Anyone looking at the 18z GFS might need to put some welding goggles on first.

Tell me about it.... Looks bad

Was on Beech Mtn earlier this afternoon. Plenty of rime ice on the trees, clear, windy and temps in the mid 20's. It was beautiful......Snow guns were cranking too. 

51 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Still waiting on the front. Currently 81 and sunny.

 

Already down to 35 degrees on Mt Mitchell. 

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Great news for warmth lovers (I'm not one of them but I'm just glad summer is over): this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active SE US members and the EPS has done well recently:

 These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!

Aside: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month! That implies it would be close to the normal for Sep 1-15 there:

 

 

Isn't there a correlation between a warn October and a cold winter? Seems like you mentioned some supporting data years ago...... or maybe I read it somewhere. I am getting old you know.

22 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

guys remember the northwest trend happens 95 percent of the time.  

Yep, and when it starts it will continue up until verification time. Question is.... how far will it get?

32 degrees here and drizzle with a stiff breeze. 

Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said:

The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend! 

Yeah, I think I will just wait until the Hrrr gets into range and go from there. Right now it's a coin toss.

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Congrats to those that got a nice hit. Get out there any enjoy it! I am punching out for this year.

What do you mean? Are you leaving the forum? Or do you mean you are striking out for the season?

2 minutes ago, Mr.Fabulous said:

Last update unless something kicks back up

Wsw Iredell County area:

temp: 32.2

dewpoint: 31.8

humidity: 99%

observations: 1.5 to 2 inches max, very light misty rain falling at the moment. Roads are slushy, bridges could be sketchy.

Same here north of Lincolnton.2 inches ....but melting some now.

GSP better update their graphics. Already have 1.5 inches just north of Lincolnton.

Got over an inch now.....Still ripping. 

Roads caved..... Still ripping fatties.

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Pouring snow here like crazy and sticking to everything. I was wrong about earlier. Damn. Lol.

I told you to just wait.

Rain and snow mix north of Lincolnton NC

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Near hickory. Deck lowering but nothing yet!

Very low hanging bowl shaped clouds.... no precip yet.

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Rain and 48. Wooo. HRRR is a joke. 

Just wait..... you might not be saying that in a while.

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

That, my friends, is a bonafide death band.

Game of chicken.... Who's going to blink first? HRRR standing its' ground. Wow. that can't really happen... can it?

Just now, BullCityWx said:

That gets me in the bull's eye here in Maiden. I will eat a piece of my shoe if I get that much snow tonight.

6 minutes ago, btownheel said:

54 degrees and 14 dew point in Gibsonville. This is gonna need to be one mother of a wet bulb


.

Speaking of wet-bulb temps...... This is probably why BradP is so negative.

6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah and each run of the HRRR is ticking NW. definitely good trends this morning 

It's not ticking NW. It's just showing more snow.

Today's high temps are going to play a giant role in who gets snow and who doesn't. Also, watch those wet-bulb temps as we head into the afternoon.

8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Gotta love how the 7.1 inch jackpot is right over my house.  Yeah...that will be the day. Still thinking of only a mix bag of rain and snow here with no accumulations. It’s gonna be too warm for all accumulating snow especially with it slated to get into the 50’s today.

I would not be one bit upset if that played out verbatim. However, I am sure a lot of folks would be caught off-guard.