CAD_Wedge_NC

2 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

How’s the LR looking? To me it seems we oscillate between AN and BN but avg out around normal for temps. Mostly rain but with some mood flake potential. 

You are only saying "mood flakes" this winter in Asheville? That's a bold statement.

19 hours ago, POWERSTROKE said:

Hadn't been here since last winter where is everybody?  Not many posting much

We're still here. Just waiting on our next threat.

28 degrees here at the moment.

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only thing I'm doing different from now on is when a shutout pattern shows up I'm embracing it and not chasing the flip. I'll just step away from wx watching and go hiking and mountain biking then jump back in when it looks better at a believable range. 

It's a shame what the board has evolved into. It was a lot more fun with eastern and early amwx. I think the entire social flow of the internet has degraded in general and it's unlikely to change for the better. Keyboard warriors, contrarians, and trolls are having too many kids I guess, 

Just stopping by to say that some of us down in the Southeast forum often lurk in the Mid Atlantic thread just to read your thoughts. There will always be some good and bad posters in every area, but don't let a few bad ones ruin it for everybody. Back to lurking....

Here we go....

1.25" in the bucket. Not too shabby.

10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Seems like they're just betting the streak here. The upper midwest/ northern rockies have been consistently below normal, with the rest of the country being above for the past couple of years now. Not only is this forecast not anything ground breaking, it doesn't seem like it would have taken too much thought or forecasting talent. "Hey, how are we going to draw our map this year?" "Let's just go with what's been happening over the past couple of years and call it a day."  60 seconds later: "Here you go boss." 

And my guess is this will be spot on. 

I don't know about that map..... You can't have a ridge in the west as the predominant pattern and have a warm east coast all winter. It just doesn't work like that..... Someone will have a below average winter. My call this winter, for NC, is for a normal winter when everything is averaged out at the end of the season. That will feel real nice compared to what we have had to deal with the last several winters. The ski resorts should have a decent winter.

Ended up with 0.38" here. I will take anything I can get.

3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

If any of you want to increase your snow chances there are several homes for sale in my neighborhood.  We get some pretty decent nwf events. 

How much???

6 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

This crazy weather is common now.


.

If that's true, why have the past several winters been so benign?

6 hours ago, griteater said:

After Monday, no outrageous heat showing on the Euro Ensemble into early August with weak troughing in the eastern U.S. 

Climo says we start the cool-down process mid-August. Slowly at first, and then it picks up steam in September. I am done with Summer and ready to move on to Fall.

If only we had the technology on a global scale to convert this additional OHC into usable energy. I am sure some think-tank is already working on it.

8 hours ago, jburns said:

I don't see a tornado. To me, it just looks like a rotating supercell.  Due to the distance and trees and buildings it give a false impression that the cloud reaches the ground. The large amount of zoom used for almost the entire video enhances that effect.  He pulls back for just a few seconds. You can see the zoom from 6:35-6:45. 

At around 2:30, you can see large debris being lofted. This is clearly a large tornado, and that descending motion is real. Horizontal vortexes are not uncommon with well developed tornadoes.

On 5/22/2019 at 12:17 PM, superjames1992 said:

Yeah, I just moved from Tallahassee to Durham this past weekend.  I am excited to see snow again.  I know the events that GSO gets that RDU does not are going to be painful, though! 

I grew up right off Piedmont Parkway (where my parents still live), so I am quite familiar with Skeet Club (I actually went to Southwest Guilford High School right near there).

Welcome back home man. We have missed ya.

On 7/2/2019 at 9:44 AM, bdgwx said:

Yeah, it takes a lot of energy to make the phase change from solid to liquid. Global mean surface temperatures are running a bit behind of most model predictions while Arctic sea ice is declining faster than originally predicted. I wonder if more of the planetary energy balance is going into the cryosphere and less in the atmosphere could explain the discrepancy? Anyway, it does appear like 2019 is shaping up to have yet another well below normal minimum extent...possibly top 3 lowest.

It's not only the energy from the state change, it's also the reflected energy that we are losing. Open water will suck up all the sun's energy. It does't look good for any recovery that we all hoped would happen. September better hurry up and get here.

8 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Looks like we will be in the mid 90's for Labor Day Weekend. That is gonna suck.

Wow, I didn't know there was a daily forecast that goes all the way to Labor Day. That's September..... I know, you meant Memorial Day

21 hours ago, Tarheel17 said:

Long range GFS is showing a series of good pushes of continental Canadian air from 5/11-5/20 or so. Hoping we can cash that in before summer loads up and locks in.

I would like to bottle some of this weather today and open it up on a 95 degree day in July.

33 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 

I just saw that as well. Some of those cells entering the southern piedmont look to be discrete as well. Not a good look. Does anyone have any insight as far as Robert(WX South) does with severe weather? He called this potentially historic.


.

 

Robert was our go-to Met on this board for many years. He is excellent with winter weather in our part of the world. However, I really wasn't into severe weather back then. So, I can't comment on his severe forecast, but I would not bet against it right now.

4 hours ago, SENC said:

Deep South, I know, though a MRGL in Central/Piedmont N.C. 

Though look at that MDT! 

If things stay the same, I expect we'll see a high risk with this one. The SPC day 1 criteria for high risk (45% with sig severe) would be reached. 

7 hours ago, Lookout said:

As a fan of cosmology/astronomy  since I was a kid, this is about as cool as it gets. First pic of a black hole. 

 

Looks like a doorway to the underworld.... scary stuff.

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

They are out buying generators, and bread and milk!

You know we are all rooting for you down there Mac. In this set up, if you get dumped on, we will too.

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Surprised no one has mentioned the Euro.

We've learned from our mistakes this winter.

22 hours ago, Wow said:

wut

I keep waiting on somebody to tell me that it is an impossibility this late in the year.

2 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

April fool's!

Yeah, that's what I thought too. I keep waiting for the punch line.

5 hours ago, JoshM said:

Don't know why it's so quiet. There's still a chance, it's so close! 

It's still too far out.... and I have my doubts about the amount of precip that will fall this far west.