CAD_Wedge_NC

GSP going with a cold and dry forecast for early/mid next week. Precip chances too low to mention. 

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah baby thats what I am talking about, that is the perfect friggen setup for a good NC snowstorm, just need it to get juicier on the NW side, and it will probably be a bit colder than that even.....also that sexy little low relocation off Hatteras would be nice to see actually happen..FV3 has it as well though still mostly suppressed. Of course we now have 6-7 days to watch this one trend away as well probably.....

Looks good right now. However, it is too far out for me to believe in it. The Euro is still suppressed.... that's where we want it at this stage.

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Anyone have analogs for the Mon/Tuesday deal? I saw a few days ago that March 1-3 1980 was showing up. Doesn't really look like that as depicted.

No, but March 1, 1960 and March 10,1993 are both in the top 10 for the 6-10 day analogs. We all know what happened a few days later in 1993 and 1960.

24 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Good to see cold but that looks like backside cold after the low and precip pass; ie cold chasing moisture. 

Nope, it's a gulf low with a perfect track. Cold is already established.

5 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Woah, I will take that in a heartbeat....

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

So much for the March 4/5 threat.  Looks like it has fizzled. 

Did you look at the FV3?

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960.  Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

Nope, only the best March of all-time. It's the March by which all others are measured.

4 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah was in the 60-70's the week leading up to it too.....we couldn't stick a yard stick anywhere and not get 20-25" on it and the Ford Maverick my dad drove was completely covered...we also couldn't leave out the front door the snow was drifted 5-6 ft deep on that side of the house....probably never see anything like it again....PGV officially had 16" but I feel that is way to low....

 

Models do seem to like Mar 3-5ish.....and there seems to be some agreement that it will be colder too....

 

I was 15 years old at that time, and remember it like it was yesterday. We did not get as much snow as folks in the eastern areas but it was colder. 9 degrees F at mid-day with 30 mph winds and heavy snow is something I will never forget. I will probably live the rest of my life and never see that again in this part of the world. I was fortunate enough to be in Chicago during a true blizzard and it was not as much fun as that 1980 storm.

5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS says, unless you live in Wilkesboro, or Boone, it’s all rain Tuesday night /Wednesday!!

Before calling this one, I am going to wait until we get into the high resolution models wheelhouse. It is close to a good front-end thump for a lot of us.

12z GFS looks pretty cold in the LR. Maybe one last stab at winter...

Just now, Disc said:

You are linking an attachment you have to be logged in to see. Others who are not logged into that site will not be able to see it.

Gotcha....

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Image isn't showing...

double-click the link and let me know if it doesn't work.

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS improved again to right?

Hoping for E-18 .... but knowing it will probably verify as E-9. On a brighter note, every ensemble from the 18z run of the GFS has accumulating snow in the mountains.

1 hour ago, WeatherHawk said:

I hope I am wrong...but just not seeing the cold air...I'd love one more nice snow-or maybe two..but IMO where is the cold air?

 

I agree, the high pressure is in a perfect spot and the strength is good. However, the source region is just not cold enough.

50 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

This absolutely SUX! at least 3/4 of the nation actaully feeling like February, and some parts have even had a pretty good winter. I'll tell you what, the southeast ridge this past decade has been an absolute beast, and we just can't get it to go away. 

What's really incredible is that 74 reading in West Virginia. 

7 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Maybe because there was such a consensus for a cold and stormy winter in the South and East from so many that we respect and we got teased by the cold November and the early December big dog in NC.  A lot of people scoff at the Old Farmers Almanac but they've done better than most for this season - no disrespect to the bustees - it's definitely an art more than a science still.

 

Ask those folks in Northern Minnesota if it was warm and dry this winter....  

One thing that keeps me from buying into the FV3 solution is the CMC.... Usually, it sees cad events very well at this range. As was mentioned earlier, either the FV3 will be hailed as the new king or it will look like the court jester.

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it.  If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern.

Agreed .... The FV3 Will have to have some support from the others before I fall into that camp. That being said, I would like to see it be right this time.

46 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

That model is Atrocious!! It shows snow behind just about every cold front that comes through, how many times does that happen............................... 

Yeah, I don't have much faith in the FV3 in the long range. However, this is certainly the type of pattern to see a big cad event, if those highs to the north verify.

22 degrees this morning. Didn't think it was going to get that cold last night. This was a nice little cold snap, but nothing compared to what could have been if the Midwest cold would have been oriented differently.

19 again this morning. Might drop another degree or so before sunrise.

19 this morning ... 24 now. Looks like another night in the teens.

I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me.

20 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I'll put my coins on the NAMster! It looks perfect for this set up....................

Normally I would agree. However, I have always been taught not to get suckered by the NAM's QPF output. Especially when it's an outlier wet or dry.

2 minutes ago, Touchet said:

Does anyone really know what is gonna happen Tuesday? 

Only thing we can be sure of is that the colder air will be moving in.