CAD_Wedge_NC

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

What's happening with the NAM ? i dont have the model available so i dont know whats going on. Someone want to elaborate ?

Bogus run....

1 minute ago, WXinCanton said:

Just curious, what should he have said yesterday?  I'm sure you know there a ramifications being a broadcast met?

He said it was a case of cold chasing the moisture, and that never works out..... This is clearly not the case. He should have been honest about the set-up even though he didn't expect snow from it.

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

You get snow, you get snow, you get snow, everybody gets a snow! We both jackpot!!

Would love to see the Euro spit out something like that....

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Brad P giving a whopping 10% chance of wintry weather, basically the whole western Piedmont of NC and upstate SC! Says a few flakes may mix in with the rain!

Wonder what he is seeing that would go against the NWS? He must be hugging the GFS's warm surface temps.

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS look a little better! Brad, coming around to a few flurries now!!

Too late to the party..... Can't change it now.

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

It took a step at 6z for sure.

Hey man, good to see you posting. What's your take on the situation?

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The sounding for the RDU airport at 84 is concerning because it isnt necessarily above freezing, you dont reach -15C until you get above the 500MB layer. It's hard to grow snowflakes like that. 

Snow growth will happen at -10 degrees C and colder.

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

You can just click on the map on pivotal weather and get the soundings as the maps come out.  Same with the College of Dupage models, but for some reason I was having trouble with the NAM soundings.  Tropical Tidbits has it too, but not for the NAM (no idea why)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017120506&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=

That sounding has the entire column below freezing for MBY. Even the surface is at freezing.

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Let's be clear about the threat of  where any warm noses are...those on the northwest fringe of this (hopeful) precip shield shouldn't have much, if any, threat of warm noses...back across north ga/western carolinas. Of course that could change if this shifts markedly northwest but right now it's quite cold aloft in these areas. 

Good point... As we all have said, upper levels are fine. This battle will be fought in the lowest layer for the posters out my way.

Just now, JoshM said:

Canadian looks better than 12z with the snowfall, to my eye.

Confidence is building......

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS out to 69 - just minor differences, but it looks a whole like the prior run to this point

Curious as to what the GFS is seeing or not seeing that is causing it to be an outlier.

Ok, now where's "Wow" to give us the pbp of the GFS?

13 hours ago, jshetley said:

Looks like I was right don't it. Jan is done. Have to wait until Feb.

Still feel this way, or are you changing your tune due to a couple of good model runs? Sorry, I had to ask...

God forbid that we ever have a strong Nina again.... Look what a negative-neutral one has done. Never thought I would ever see a SER so strong with neutral conditions. If this pattern ever does flip, it should be epic with all the cold that's been bottled up to our northwest.

.....#4, #5, #6 are all good advice. Thanks for bumping.

Added additional model pages and maps.

Good post Burger....Do you still have the member's location map that we had a few winters back?

Edit: Never mind....I see the link in your sig.

I went from Jan 1st through June 30th of all the years I looked at. I stopped at June 30th to prevent any contamination from tropical systems making landfall. I searched NCDC for my info. Once we get back into the 70's tornado reports drop considerably and many were probably not reported like they have been in the last 30 years or so.

There were 17 years without a landfalling tropical system. The average tornado count between Jan 1st and June 30th for those non-landfalling years is 8.8 tornado confirmations(doesn't mean there weren't more that went unreported). Of the landfalling years which equaled 9 years the average number of tornado confirmations was 28.4 for NC. If you add this year to the numbers we have 65 tornadoes on the NCDC site http://www4.ncdc.noa...?wwevent~storms that I am using and that increases the average to 32.1 for years with landfalling tropical systems.

Years that have had landfalls 32.1 average

years without 8.8.

Not scientific but the numbers speak pretty clearly......feel free to provide me evidence that my numbers are wrong.

Nice research Shaggy/Downeast....... Don't worry about Widreman, he gives everyone a hard time. We overlook him as much as possible. He's still mad because the trees in his yard caught all the snow last winter.