CAD_Wedge_NC

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

That map matches up well with climo..... tight gradient through the Charlotte area. Seen it many, many times over my 53 years. (I-85 cut-off)

I do like where we are sitting at this range..... Still a long ways to go before we can put the snow totals on the books.

2 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Ladies and gents, your clown map ...

That's pretty much just what the ensembles and the Euro have been trying to tell us for the past few days.

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

LP off Myrtle Beach at 180. Outside mtns , its ice thru NC Piedmont, Upstate SC

Check your soundings..... most of that is snow for even your neck of the woods.

3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

6z GFS MUCH IMPROVED, @ 156 stronger CAD, LP in Gulf, Snow Breaking out in NC Piedmont

Yep, all snow event now on the GFS for western NC and Piedmont! Can't wait to see the clown maps on this run.

2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

How does it come up with that in SC? By tropical tidbits SC sees rain the whole time.

Who knows..... It's obviously flawed. No way my area sees over 20 inches of snow. I haven't looked at the QPF to see if it even has that much precip falling in the storm. 

34 minutes ago, ajr said:

Looks to me like it spins off another low?

 

That's a common miller B transfer of energy to the coast. Ideally, you want that transfer to take place south of you as shown. That will keep the cold air locked in and you will not lose that fresh feed of cold air. We have had some all-snow events with a set-up like this, but those were associated with colder air masses. Most of the time in these situations, there is some degree of mixing during the storm.

We preach this every winter..... "Look at the ensembles for better long range forecasts. The Op runs will flip and flop at those longer lead times". IMO it really gives you a better idea of what the model trends are. Once you get inside of that 3-5 day window, then the operational runs become more important.

I am getting a little concerned about flying in to Chicago O'Hare tomorrow. However, I have to admit, the kid in me says "this is going to be fun".

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

This upcoming system looks interesting. It actually seems like it could be a hybrid of 12/11/00 and 12/1/06, IMO

I was in town all week for the holiday, but will be leaving tonight. I will admit though, part of me will be jealous if a EURO-like solution happens.

 

Flying into Chicago on Sunday mid-morning. I plan to beat the changeover. Will be in town all week next week. This is going to be a big storm for those that get under that death-band and plenty of cold to follow.

31 degrees and light freezing rain. A glaze on the cars and deck.

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. 

I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out.  If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest.

With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average.

On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away.  For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

I can't ever recall a SER with a -NAO. So, if we do have a lasting -NAO you can count that out. Also storms don't seem to trend NW at the last minute with a -NAO. Bottom line,... I'll take my chances being in the bull's eye 5 days out, if the indices are favorable. 

Looks like sleet falling in Boone per webcams

29 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Beech Mtn NC down to 27 degrees already.

Edit: now down to 26 degrees

2 minutes ago, jburns said:

GRRRR..........:)

Didn't expect to see you in here..... By the way just rain and 39 degrees.

Beech Mtn NC down to 27 degrees already.

2 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Its the temperature at witch air can no longer hold water vapor that turns to liquid the dew point is always equal too or lower than the temperature. In this case the lower the dp the better if you like ice/sleet. For Example. If your outside temp is 40° and dp is 30° As rain begins to fall it cools the atmosphere to near the dp temp to achieve 100% humidity. So your temp basically will be equal or a degree or two higher of the dewpoint. I'm not a great teacher sorry just a country boy lol

To find the wet-bulb temperature you take the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point and divide it by 3. Then you subtract it from the actual temp. In other words a temp of 42 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees would yield a wet bulb of 38 degrees. This is a down and dirty way of knowing what you will be able to achieve by evaporational cooling from precipitation. 

38 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

That map has over a foot of snow in places that won't see anything other than a cold rain. Pathetic....

Watch wet-bulbs up stream and dew-points. That will give us a pretty good indication of whether or not the models are picking up on the cad accurately...... I still can't believe we are doing this in November.

1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said:

What's interesting is that the RGEM actually has 850's sub freezing for most of the mountains during the heart of the event which would probably keep it as sleet rather than freezing rain. Wish there were soundings available somewhere.

I am down here in the foothills. Hopefully, I will escape most of the onslaught this storm will bring. Good luck to you guys higher up.... hope you get a sleet-fest instead of all that freezing rain that is currently modeled.

14 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county.  I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY.  Let's do this!

I am south of you by a few miles..... I am expecting about the same. Good signs for winter.

2 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

I hope everyone realizes these NAM "snowfall" maps are picking up on the ice qpf? There is absolutely no snow involved in NC anything frozen will be in the form of ZR per soundings. Pivotal weather is a much better source when ice is involved. Here's the amount of qpf that actually falls as ZR. Ice accrual will be minimal due to quickly warming and marginal temps to start along with latent heat release quickly warming areas above freezing. Still enough for some slick roads in the AM for CAD regions.

 

 

Just can't imagine that for this time of year. No way that happens..... That would require a strong continual cold air feed. This is technically a hybrid event, but in my opinion, it would take a classical event to get to these levels. With all that being said, we should look at dew-point trends leading up to the event to see how likely this will be. Right now, I am inclined to believe that it is just the NAM being the NAM.

2 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

I know it’s the 18z GFS... but wow it close to something big for us mnt folks around the 14th 

Yep, It is close to a good storm for you guys out in the far western end. 

8 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Wow, go big or go home baby!

Some of those look credible, but NOOOO way Simpsonville (GSP) gets 17! That hasn't happened since 82-83?  Haven't even seen double digits in 25-30 years. Sure it will happen again eventually, and man are we due, but no way. I'd go with 5 for GSP. 

We are quick to discount the numbers that are being shown. However, if we can get the right pattern, it is plausible.

21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’ve heard they worked at a Manufacturing plant, not far from the store and they called in and quit work this morning. That store is like 2 miles or less from my house! 

That's probably the closest you will ever come to winning the lottery.