Typhoon Tip

you know i remember back in the day .. they used to have a product/publication over at wpc called 'model diagnostic discussion' it was based upon at least a cursory evaluation of the input grid to ferret out errors in the data that could effect the model processing out in time. they'd even give recommendations. like, 'recommend not weighting as much of the eta' or the euro or mrf or ngm. oh man, do you remember the "n"ot "g"ood "m"odel ? just kidding, 'nested grid model' it may be that improvements in data and/or assimilations and both et al, got to where they figured they didn't need that.

lol, what's the expression? 'we've been nam'ed'

well ... irvin berlin wrote, '...dreamin' of a white christmas ...' his song was never written '...entitled to a white white christmas...' perhaps because even the ancients knew, and sung in despondency what they must rely upon for that sanctity. like, the song was always interpreted kinda wrong? it's sung as though it's like december 10 and the visions, looking onward in glowing smiles, for some nostalgia that he cannot wait to get back to... wrong! it should have been december 25th ...about 10 a.m.... and it's 34 fuckum f with cloudy turbid skies over metalic, drizzle filled gray air through the window, air that's fractured by black tree limbs. all over dead leaves. and there's this day-dreamer holding a cup of joe, drawn over with an exasperated desperate expression; he's peering out the window from in this imprisonment of kids promising to make the day a restless din of noise and stress ... now that they are puzzled with what they're supposed to do with these things called 'sleds' they just opened as christmas gifts. in that moment, he's definitely dreamin' of a white christmas

the nam has a nw bias at 60 hours. been pointing this out for years really ... it seems this simple aspect just cannot penetrate heads - so what happens in situations like this, over and over again ( and in a faster/gradient hemisphere as of late, this is common) any 'nw run' of that model, and there's this palpable giddiness that appears to not include the necessary constraint. this time - admittedly - it's a little more difficult because the euro appeared to be a little closer ... yeah, so there's empathy in the set-up 'miss-guidance' intangible here. i get it. i think the back ground is what is toasting this scenario. i mean there's a storm on the maps. a fairly strong one at that. ns should do well...etc. but the back ground state of the local hemisphere has too much x-coordinate value to underpinning wave signal. that i'm firmly confident is related to a badly timed phase 5 mjo dispersing it's turd into an otherwise impressive +pna surge. bit of a destructive/negative interference that quite arithmetically dimmed the ability of this particular atmospheric cinema's interval to really go meridian enough

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was. then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,' 1996 ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa. i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh. starting to like the 2-6th

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was. then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,' 1996 ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa. i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh. starting to like the 2-6th edit,wrong thread -

nam typically is nw of guidance means at 60 hr

Not sure I agree with that last sentence there… We are in fact missing this (as is in model ) meteorologically by a very slim margin for error.

yeah discussed that earlier it's an emerging/evolving aspect with the telecons. the sources are differentiating toward more nao, run to run... while pancaking the pna. paraphrasing, it's actually the canonical transition from a -(wpo/epo) +pna hemisphere. when the pna griddles there's a lag correlation to the onset of nao. it really doesn't reduce your storm frequency - it just transitions the storm modes.

maybe start with the thermometer and go from there ?

actually this was the right thread.. anyway, that's a wildly storm prone look that's rather abruptly emerging out of the ens mean/sources ... this operational gfs... obviously the details and dailies are not of much use at this range. this is because there is a whole sale pattern change, moving from -(wpo/epo) +pna, into a neutral-postiive pna vestige under a robust western limbed -NAO. that's inherently a stochastic performance arena for modeling in times like those... but there's thread-able events potentially, as implied by the ens, so seeing it be that way is okay in principle. the thickness ( hydrostatic height ) gradient is quite steep between mt and the ov, and that's powder keg for pac waves that get forced through under the east canadian mode. you guys are a bit beside yourselves for what appears to be a near miss here in the nearer term, but this system is really a positive result for the effort in recognition ( at least .. ) of the potential, so there's a huge positive take away that doesn't ( unfortunately ) d-drip .. but there's a behavior pattern going on that's sort of "intangible" that's better than worse - if that helps

well yeah ...probably not the place for it but the pattern heading into the new year and beyond is revealing in time. pretty significant multi-sourced ens ( and now showing up in long range op ) suggestion now that while we likely lose the -epo tendencies, this takes place in lieu of a -nao ( over the western limb of the domain, too ) emergence that is actually rather canonical for a +pna collapsing toward neutral or even modestly negative, that blocking materializes in the nao domain. this is what i've been trying to describe over years, that the nao is actually directed by the dispersion off the pacific ...etc... not sure ( obviously ) what that will mean in the dailies, but for winter enthusiasts ... it does imply at least we alleviate the implication for a complete winter regression scenario - that was actually hinted through a couple days ago ( in guidance ..) for the times after xmas, because it there was less signal over eastern canada. edit, actually this was the right thread lol

fwiw - the ggem was a tick more meaningful for ri/e ma

they may be indirectly correct ... though it's not abundantly clear given your description here, whether or not they actually know that - sounds like they're labeling something intuitive but the current pac circulation mode is something else. "why" this particular storm is behaving the way it has been, in guidance: it is far more likely that the longer term frequency of the mjo, wrt to the mid and high latitude circulation mode(s) between the n arc of the pac medium ... spanning down stream across the n/a mid latitude continent, are in destructive interference. they are in conflict. the mjo was quite vigorous as it passed recently 3-4-5-6. those correlate just about diametrical to the -(wpo/epo) and +pna pattern motif. you know, the mjo is not forcing the pattern, but does serve to amplify or deamplify. it is a modulator in that sense- i realize i've gone over this a dozen times so this is just for making the point here. what we're seeing with a ho-hum western ridge presentation is just about 95% ( colloquially...) of why this thing is having trouble amplifying as it is approaching the bottom of the trough ... i'm personally very highly confident that the primary sensitivity in why this is struggling to do so, is the handling over western n/a. that western ridge really appears almost arithmetically a medium between the mjo's negative modulation input, on top of a strong +d(pna) leading this event. the very recent subtle improvements in western track/impact implications and so forth, appear to be a stronger wave relay off the pacific - wave centric. maybe that will be enough, maybe it won't... the phase 5 mjo timing with this +d(pna) is just as likely to happen in 1950 as it is in the years since 2015. aside from all that...the excited jet velocity and compression and all that began prior to 2015 anyway.

I like that so far (both the Nam did this also ) you have that short wave anticyclionic curvature starting to materialize ahead of the the trough nadir out there. that’s usually is a prelude to expansion nw of the b-clinic leaf over the top of that mid-level jet torpedo. the low has a chance to jump onto the inside rail so to speak basically tapping into the left entrance region of jet max

gfs made the greatest adjustment west side of all of them last run.

while I agree the nam is not trustworthy in that range per averages, in this particular case i’d caution it’s more telling

Mm flat relays out of the assimilation net can be problematic

Think it’s interesting that the jet mechanics are just starting to nose on board into the denser sounding grid out west and right away, we get some modulation here.

yeah there it is in the operational though. there's an oe signal popping up there in the qpf... that's a cold nascent high there so that's an interesting factor for the coast... a near miss but strong ene ccb fringe would make it winter like in that solution gfs, 18z sorry

going ahead a leveling a stereo type bomb here but leave it to an alias that has the word, "vegan" in it to invoke the irrepressible work of angels and demons ... haha j/k dude

the great boxing day blizzard ( for everyone but tampon tip ) storm

oh, wait a minute ... that's the ensemble mean. shit. well, in that case, that ivt is actually because there's likely some members with either a strong ivt signal or are just bodily west of the mean.

that looks like a long shore fetch setting up... if that happens there's likely to be some oe working with general low level frontogenics ..i could see a plume of light snow in that hinted ivt over pa also clusters in southern me eastern ma and ri