Typhoon Tip

I remember that ... We had a shot at getting clipped by the ongoing historic heat over the Lakes region that day, but that derecho came thru at dawn and processed the heat south. We were forecast to 101 that day, but "only" made 92s in the wake of that beast - I think was Saturday. It was actually weakening quite a bit by the time it was passing through eastern Mass around 7 am or so... We still managed some 55 mph gusts, but nothing like what happened up the Mohawk Trail/Eastern NY/VT... I do recall seeing a rope funnel along dangling down from the outflow wedge tho - that was neat. The evening before, I remember a bank thermometer - back when they used to have those... - with an 89 in down town Maynard Ma, just before it click back to the time, 11:10 pm. I was blown away by that kind of heat that late at night. Seems like I've seen that in urban centers since though. For what it is worth, the 00z Euro some sort of an MCS like you're describing around 180 hrs from now.

Keep in mind .. the ensemble mean will 90 some percent of the time or more be less than an operational version's amplitude - particularly out in time when individual members tray off into processing fantasies. I mean that's just an unavoidable circumstance of arithmetic, where the entire envelope thus contains both bignormous fantasies, but also, very nominal sad dreams hahaha. That is why an EPS mean like this at 200+ hours ... signifies there are not a lot of low members. Anyway, this chart straight up is dead nuts textbook big heat signaling.

i mean look at the eps 00z mean .. . that's a big time signal for 200 hours boys -

Very little support from the GEFs ensemble system wrt the operational run doing that with that big closed summer ending menace. The 00z had it, the 06z diametrically reversed and had big number heat implied ... 12z vacillated all the way back to the 00z run... so big yo-yooing that doesn't conform to the ensembles/telecon is highly suspect as the GFS being the Good For Shit model

GFS at the same time... LOL

here it is out at hour 216 .... that's maximizing. The ridge construct is so rubust it's hard to image a single cloud in the sky open pure sear must be circumstantial underneath this synoptic structure. G-pot heights approaching 600 dm, 12 hours after this interval over NYC-BOS.

Canadian implies potential high heat on this 12z run - definitely moving in a hotter direction, as well. previous run vs this 12z centered on 180 hrs

With all due respect ... where are you seeing constraining factors on T or DP ? It isn't through conventional means, because from operational trends, to teleconnector/mass field correlations and back , the whole methodology has +2 ST DP and +1.5 SD T at this time, which in sensible terms is 91/73 type stuff ...roughly from D7 to 14 - but these time ranges are obviously negotiable. Course, we are talking still a week+ away. If you are constraining things based on seasonal trend to bone warm pattern and verIfy a low-balled result? okay. LOL

it's amazing how this winter hasn't yet really ended specifically for this discrete region of the planet. heh

yup ... euro even manifests a nice mcs signal. only 180 hour out there but who's county. this appears to be on the nose of a 576 to 582 dm SW/W heat release in that run btw

Excessive headline-able heat signal

May have a Harvey deal into Texas in a week

Man what a ball game !

unfortunately ...making america great means losing a lot of tracking in that regard. guess it's not an all gain none lose deal, huh -

i actually suggest it is useful to do that - not just a bias evidence. i was just smirking that we've been low-balling if not failing heat since last november really. i've actually been seeing evidence of winter 'structure' to the super synoptic behavior, just doing so at 30 to 40 dm higher. weirdly long wave lengths and useful pna prognostics is not very summer like, so we get what we get from that. try to spare the long winded digression ( no pun intended) but the fast flow associated with blazing equatorial and sub-equatorial heights would be the most suspect factor in keeping the jet alive due to +d(gz) at mid and upper latitudes... anyway, in deference to that being the case ... i believe these odd-ball cold lobes in ontario like these long range gfs have some principle value to them. i mean they're not going to be right per se, just in concept in other words. that's an important heat signal in that ~19th + time range out there but we'll see.

meanwhile, that's a hot signal between the 19th and 25th. all the operational models are coherently ejecting/repositioning +2+ standard deviation height anomalies closer to 90 w, well teleconnected with the major index modes in that time range. trend of verification low-balling the original warm signals, if not fail, has been observable - since last november that's been going on, actually. interesting subplot. we'll see if this one has legs.

10 more days the GFS will start pimping seasonal change on every D10 solution ... it can't wait to get past the solstice every year and then it thinks it's October 15

that actually looks like an unusually dry air mass everywhere, with local wv forcing from evaporation post green up tainting DPs into the 40s to me.

Odd DP for June

for newbs to the region that's gotta be a weird

what is a "Pit8"

Go wonder ...the operational Euro canceled the heat look. I don't know it's hard to get a bead on that D6 to 13 range. There's a low amplitude -PNA which seems to be in spatial conflict/destructive interference with this unrelenting non-linearity of +PNAP ... Quick comment on that... uuusually, the Pacific North American index is tightly correlated to the Perennial North America Pattern - but since last November this has not been the case... Really rather remarkable, the longevity of that uncoupled statistic. It gave as a colder winter than recent years, while the neg interference of it all ...stopped big stormy snows. Now we're seeing the summer afflicted with fast moving fronts and heat suppression tendencies ( so far..). Anyway, the telecons have a sustaining -PNA with a sustaining, albeit modest, +NAO... with cyclic EPO dumps ... heat can certainly manifest over eastern mid latitudes of the continent given that teleconnector spread. The question is, will it? You can go by the verifications - they're going to be above normal if not by whole degrees ... by decimals. That's not related to this... something else The EPS still has at least a flat ridge cutting E in its ensemble mean D7 to 12 ...

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times. It matters.. the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am. The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here" ... GFS is better on Sunday ... The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off. Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain. Temps held to 70.

Steady rain Saturday on these recent American runs