Typhoon Tip

12z operationals appeared to inch back hotter at least in the Mon-Tue aspect... Just going by the 500 mb cinemas. altho I did see the GGEM; waits until Thursday mid day to BD and it's not a very strong signal either.

Yeah, all that ...and, I'm personally suspect that these global model '2-meter temp' depictions are not in fact the actual 2-meter temperatures, but are really just stopping the adiabats at 1000 mb level and taking whatever it calculates at that sigma level. Pretty sure they lack the resolution in that lowest 20 someodd mb of the floor ... where the 2-meter slope temperature really is. It can be 95 at the top of downtown church steeples and 101 on the sidewalk going by.... Although, in the winter, they do better ... but then in the winter the sounding is pretty uniform ( typically..) in the lower 100mb

"Worse"ter yet ... he'll be standing out there glaring enviously at a brightly lit bum side of the CB tower as though the cool kids are mooning him. lol

The ensemble means all look better than these operational versions regarding the pattern/favorable delivery The operational versions have been subtly increasing a polar jet curving through SE Canada/N Ontario... cutting it real close. It's tough to bring big numbers into NE with that synoptic construct - invariably we run into +PP genesis over Ontario itself and that's the ball game. we'll see

12z NAM buckin' for a 1953 redux - even gotta hook there

heh.. never was aware that was a requirement - i'll take a look

Why am I getting this "1 file would exceed the total allowed size of 21,xxx KB" notification when others are posting images that clearly exceed this number ??

Yeah... I'm kind of Doctor J vs Mr Hyde when comes to heat. I'm utterly fascinated by the "big heat" synoptics, just like I am for big winter events. I don't like to live in them. SO ...admittedly. That said, it is not like rooting them on, tho. I believe I'm morally okay with it, because as a science curiosity, that's where my interest in them is. I'm not like Kevin, who roots on the dystopian horror of people cooking in the streets from the confines of his well-A.C.ed, model interpretive "boudoir". They have particular identities. Especially in these recent eras of the ongoing CC/attribution stuff, when they are occurring with greater frequency all over the world, and are dangerous ... ( more deaths than all other weather event types combined), there's definitely value in learning how to use the guidance. etc etc.

Perhaps you are unclear on the concept of "not based upon all present indicators ... "

This is not a correct assessment based upon all present indicators ... it's okay bro. It's only mid June. We'll have other shots at this over the next 6 to 8 weeks ( before the GFS routines begins snowing at D10 in mid August LOL )

Yeah so others are onto it ... no heat wave next week. Pattern is sputtering to 2 days on, 2 days off... and no confidence there after for next weekend. The 2 days off could end up being dramatic too... We've gone from 101's in guidance to 68s over eastern NE.. The problem is up over eastern Canada. From what I can tell, whether or not heat can expand and amplify for something more than merely pedestrian AN is sensitive to what is happening up there. The flow has been sneakily correcting deeper and deeper with that anachronistic SPV SW of the D-Straight... The Euro at this point has a strong polar jet now curving around underneath - heat in New England seldom succeeds with polar jets in that position. The idea of a +PP emerging and crushing the fragile heat S is really academic at this point. The only way to reverse all that is to have that SPV substantially weaken in the guidance. So, this may have been just another extended red herring ... no harm no foul. We've spoken about the confidence risks already. Plenty of time and this is all acceptable adjusting at this range. I will say, the ensemble means are still flatter with the flow up there, however - so ...it's not impossible that the operational versions are a bit too amplified with that circulation structuring up there. We'll have to see.

I still would watch for a mid weekend MCS it seems there’s a noncommittal warm frontogenesis on the leading edge of the arriving torch synoptics. An eruption along then turning SE out of lower Ontario is climo favored and the operational models already can’t seem to resist - could be a severe risk for derecho followed by a heat burst pattern. Somewhat rare sequence for our region.

Getting the crud’s mid week like this is a switch. Perhaps this is related to the larger changes in the hemisphere that will also roast next week … It may also signify breaking the cycle of timing Saturdays for shits

what's the trigger tomorrow? it's CAPEy no doubt but I thought the wfront shifts N of the region and we're just sort of neutral in the pigs bum

Can't.... Earth would have to lose it's magnetic dynamo. Venus suffered H2O extinction from slow rotation and having too little dynamo, while being technically too far inside the Goldy zone ... That meant eons of pulverizing radiation cracking water molecules apart - there's also likelihood that Earth began with or received water sources in addition to having the powerful dynamo that protect it. But... if by saying "like Venus", we just mean hot as hell? that can happen with different chemistry and insolation, too.

well... yeah. but then Earth, nor the nature within which it exist are ideal then, either. 1800s had a couple a big volcanoes. then we got solar cycles and storms there. comet impacts... CRB's from deep astronomy for shit's sake. I mean how far outside of it do we wanna go, we can certainly find reasons to just suggest it's all futile anyway. Or, we can keep the conversation constrained to Human asshole forcing not adding to this compendium of plausible disaster scenarios. That's the point.

Human influence/forcing "hidden in the noise of climate variability" is fanciful rhetoric that really means the same thing as Earth being capable of absorbing the human influence - all systems, weather and biology. This is academic logic really ... but still needs to be stated for a lot of population that don't get it. Species loss and species migration are happening because when the emergence out of noise became coherent, that coincides with changes occurring faster than species adaptation rates. Dead meat. Humans are not unaffected. The Serbian diaspora 15 to 20 years back took place because of shifting climate zones and agricultural failure over a vast region ... These are all just physically realized evidences; when the anthropomorphic forcing was still contained inside the Earth's ability to hide it in the noise, that means adaptation had a chance. I'm just saying that coherence became like a data proxy for when the detriment began. People are waiting for threshold dystopia ...but, it's more likely that a series of them will breach silenty, like crossing an event horizon - you don't feel anything out of the ordinary when you go across, but you don't return to the previous state . We surpass enough of them and then find ourselves in a "Serbian crises", perhaps one that has fewer existential solutions When that expose happened, also marks the first threshold being crossed. When the warming becomes (attribution) discernible and differentiable, meaning it sticks out of the noise as being more significant, that is the threshold of injury.

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-planetary-linked-wild-summer-weather.html

No problem from me ... I've smirked the notion in multiple post over the last 10 years. Climate forcing probably began the moment that inquisitive proto modern human picked up stick still aflame at one end somewhere along the sub-Saharan African savanna, and it dawned on him/her. Well not right then - ... but controlling fire. It just needed 200 years of Industrial humanity to become very obvious ... Before then, it's presence was buried in the noise of natural variability.

Altho that looks like a ripe environment for overnight MCS over the weekend

I'm expecting 2-3 deg machine number cool bias Fri/Sat, too. Back side attenuated cool advection becomes mainly a DP evac, leaving the region with W-NW d-slope with still +14 850s has super adiabatic expansion ...blah blah... I bet it's 80+ Thurs.. MEX is already doing 86 Sat at KBDL-KFIT-KASH Frid.... this should translated into town no problem in that synoptic. I bet those are nine-os In fact, we may materialize the heat wave beginning Sat -->

The NAM is bringing this warm front thru tomorrow morning

Steamy tho. If that's one's bag than sure. But these NAM grid numbers are like 574 dm thickness, at the bottom of which is 23 C above the 2-meter temperature. 36000818853 -2399 132110 74231813 42000908660 -1900 132112 74222014 Which means it could be in the mid or upper 80s at eyebrow, while DPs are 70 to 75 ...

mm... not sure you looked hard enough for the rain ? the GFS/Euro runs from 12z yesterday, for early/mid day today ( 18z) and they clearly had a field of QPF in the region - I guess you can argue the degree of inundation but if one is being objectively open minded about weak flow/summer/and green on charts, they might paint picture in their mind that includes the possibility of it not being sunny and 84 lol

yeah, I was just going over the more detailed mass distribution and timing and it's really those two days 'at this time' ... I mean, the ensembles of the EPS and GEFs would allow the operational runs to to 'fill those days in' *thu-sat. They were sort of more like that yesterday. It's not believable one way or the other at this range... but these latest runs are cooling the 850s by a couple clicks each day after that. It's not abundantly clear how that is doing that, but both the Euro and GFS did that. It's almost like they're fabricating/introducing emergent little erosion factors.