Typhoon Tip

ICON always does this… Notice the big gap opening up over Western mass eastern New York north or south eastern PA at 120 hours? That whole region in there is cold air dammed and it’s like the model can’t resolve that so it splits the QPF in half and kind of mangles the low in that region.

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No you guys weren’t discussing why the UK was an unlikely solution...just grousing as usual, which was unlikely reasoning point ...so welcome to lucidity wise ass LOL

Ukmet's has a whopper BUF bomb ... But that guidance definitely has never completely sans the meridian bias at D6 anyway as far I've seen so we'll see. That solution bucks the flat progressive idea though -

Everyone's seen the GFS and it's been going on for several cycles. It's hard to tell if the Euro''s camp is on board, but... 2 days periodicity on flat wave winter storm ejections is a repeating theme across said cycles. The problem is - what's new - that fast/progressive flow is buck-shot on timing and exact impact regions where tend to be narrowed because of the pancake/flat nature of open wave cyclone types. Which enters questions on whether these entities in the stream are real even - but we'll cross that bridge. It's better for modeling cinema and keeping ennui down to actually have something to wonder about though -

Agreed ... not with that pressure pattern east of the cordillera... The local geo forcing/fluid mechanical restoring will barrier jet the hell out of that 920 mb level if that layout verifies and probably ... that's an over smoothing anyway. It's next to impossible to warm intrusion SNE's interior when there +PP over NE Maine and antecedent drain already established. It's almost fluid mechanically impossible ..The only way to over come that would be to have a 70 kt 875 mb level WCB fire hose...which happened in late Jan 1994 but this isn't that.

Heh.. yeah, the front coming south in future guidance ... almost seems with massive climo weight they might pick up on that sooner or later. Might help confidence. It occurs to me, this is a fast approaching thing. Funny, I was hung up on the last debacle and this is really day 5 which isn't terrible for verification - just not slam dunk range either. actually this year it seems we need it 10 minutes out but that's another thing -

Risking a nostalgia thread hijacking .. know what I miss? I used to love how in icing events - even though I loathe it if the power cuts ... - how you walk out side in that gray timbre'd light, and the smell of it. It does .. it really does have a kind of smell. I don't know if it's just distant soupcons of wood smoke mixed some how with cold dp insert air ...something, but it's a fun vibe. Then of course the powers out ten minutes later and I hate everyone -

I have an idea: let's start a 'real' February thread, seeing as we are technically not even in February .. yet we're on the heavier side of a 100 pages - hahahaha. And, I'll throw myself under the bus and fire-off thread re next week's potentials ??

Scott's motif of loaded up overrunning potentials is repeating in this run. Probably some split flow latency in the flow ...if not coherently identifiable, maybe by behavior it is evidenced. Those blue air masses with arms stretching periodically through Ontario, while squirting pancaked waves through the OV and overrunning is quite concomitant with either -EPO or quasi EPO cold loading and the flow meandering underneath from the SW. It's almost like a 10 days overrunning story with a couple/few breaks separating chapters.

There is absorption of that trough ejection though... I just clicked through... At around 120 hours as the trough approaches west TX or thereabouts, the southern tip is robuster than it is at 144 .. 168, when by this latter time and space it is over the TV as a positive sloped wind max - that morphology is the height compression's destructive interference. It becomes a matter of force balancing really - whether this thing has enough maintain that cohesive entity or lose more in absorption. This rendition is enough to keep the fan-fair happy though, either way. And there's no way those p-type layouts work out that way and the typical GFS BL dipshit handling is pretty clearly going on there. Th'at's just a straight up ice sagger

well... yeah, in fairness no love loss or embarrassment on that if I'm wrong...it's just that it seemed(s) unusual to have the Euro's wave length so stretched, yet have the wave so robust ... to mention, with height compressed and lead flow already zipping along in the S/SE doesn't lend to wave integrity holding its shape and form so well, either. But, hell - anomalies relative to anomalies nested inside conundrums wrapped in enigmatic oddities happen from time to time in this vercokta business too -

Right right ... CPC's take: GW is real... base line is thus above average. case closed everyone else...? denial, even in best intents and purposes of seemingly rational objective consideration, they still bias micro reasons into keeping their winters in tact. Everyone else is just full of shit. in a way, CPC indirectly exposes the truth of a warm CC - just look at their scoring... haha ( i'm being snarky here but hey...there's prollly a modicum of truth to this )

Ahh yes... the undying mantra that also is used to protect denier rationality bubbles from the reality outside said bubble... Unfortunately, 'climate changing for thousands of years' -vs- hundreds, as a means to undermine the veracity of the 100 years of change is a false logic. I mean it really is simply, false. It's like you've been holding a 10 lb rock for two weeks, and someone adds another couple lbs to that load, for two minutes, and because the other was two weeks, it has more weight. It's just dumb beyond belief, and huge ballasts of population, and even those responsible for information, have it wrong. Humans are not above being "lost in the weeds" -

Mm... and are you very familiar with the T 'N' A index ? that particular indicator predates all others of modern technology, and is usually a very diametrical measure, with some regions being exceptionally warm, while unfairly, ..others being very very cool. Seldom does that index ever show much of a zero order, 'STD'

I'm 50/50 on those two days... Yes, as modeled No per climo Yes, the HC/southern heights wall and seasonal trends ...I just don't no what to weight more in the above list... but I know those are all valid concerns. Turning to the ensemble means is less helpful to me, because pretty much all season they have been 'sloshing' anyway, and this pancaking of gradient open wave shit requires a pretty finite scaled correctness to get 31.5 vs 40 vs 60 right. I will say after having digested all guidance and so forth...the Euro appears to be conserving too much southern stream trough mechanics out there toward D7 .. post ejection from the west. As has been proven time and time, over time again ...this season, and is theoretically proper, when we are dealing with consummate positive geopotential heights in the deep SW/S/SE ...regardless of the cause, southern trough ejections more typically have substantive losses/get absorbed/sheared out ... Usually, their vestigial momentum still have enough that we get more pearled out low responses and heightened baroclinic leafing as a general rule - and so that is where I am inclined to lean, rather than the Euro rather impressive near coastal cyclo bomb there at D8 ... Ha! D8 Euro storm - who woulda thunk. I wonder, the Euro's correction scheming may not be as useful in a situation that makes singular entity potency less likely. fascinating.. The other suspicion over the Euro is that as that trough ejection happens, regardless ..., it's western ridge lags pretty far west. That's make the total L/W's length, ridge to trough couplet, a bit unrealistic looking to me - fast flow or not...that's pushing it. Anyway, if we correct toward more shearing, than a longer duration overrunning would be the more likely fall-back scenario.

Factoring in the GFS 2-meter abysmal warm bias in saturation environments, that 18z run is two day ice storm ending as 3-5" of snow on top. Also, that's an amazing 13 days worth of pancake wave mix/snow events ... Two days cyclic - Know what would be interesting ? Do a day 7 snow total for the season, and compare it to the actual snow totals at the end. I wonder if the D7 is like triple what actually happens or something -

Yeah I'm not sure what that's for ... I was just goading Kevin -

And the NAVGEM has a prelude Miller B ... so, we're set then -

JMA looks awesome at 120 hours with a polar arm of fresh molasses through eastern Ontario and the front pushed S ...meanwhile, split flow high Plains with eject low underneath. nice

speaking of idiosyncrasies .. the Euro was interesting in that it takes 30 hour to moves an open flat wave from the lower interior M/A to off Cape cod, which is quite strange when the flow overall is moving along at ludicrous speed - yeah, there's going to need to be some refining there.

Ah...I think it was just the GFS. Not sure what the ensemble mean was back then, but the operational. And I'm not sure it was noise in whole - if there's something in the flow that can be volatile, that may have been just an early attempt to resolve it. More like a fuzzy attempt - in a range that probably shouldn't be really revealed. haha

Heh...it occurs to me ... five days ago the GFS put out a couple of runs that had a near historic bomb along or off the EC for 300 hours - we were all dismissive in our usual flare, but the cinema was certainly fun! This thing at 180+ is really that same interval/next major trough attempt back east. I was just looking at the GEF individual members and ever single one of them has a baroclinic leaf smearing up the EC for that period of time next week.

heh...no argument .. everything is f-up frankly. These incredible high velocity depictions are basically what happens when the planetary Hadely Cell is extending into the lower middle latitudes, while the boreal seasonal heights are pressing from the N. When the velocities are high in between troughs, that is a base line trouble. But, it seems to expand in pulses... It receded last week and we relaxed the flow...but the N/stream seemed weak too, so we lost both and that ended up not helping winter storm enthusiast's intents and purposes. So it may not be fast flow all the time, either. I'm on the fence for Feb. I don't see that circumstantially going away at the convenience of any blocking episodes ...and in fact, blocking may not be favored anyway - indirectly related. Right now CDC/ESRL has -WPO/-EPO but it's shaky and may not be real. It's hard to create blocking when the L/W are stretching to accommodate velocity saturation. Just means ...too fast of flow to allow the the 'curl' needed to start that process... etc. It can happen... 2015 did this.. but, good luck. anyway, when/if the flow relaxes seasonally nearing March ( or starts too...), boom. God I hope not