Typhoon Tip

This thing might have a wind concern if that NAM solution pans out In fact lotta focus for winter snow and whatever in here but this could be a ferocious storm in general

The GFS has that 170 kt jet bomb along and off the EC ...that's why it's overcoming the damming. It may just be too "damn" much even for positive static stability and inversion. That's just obscene having two flags at 500 mb over PVD... with three flags just S of there. Probably if this set up had the more 'standard' wind max we'd have had the storm S and damming wins easy but this is looking more and more like just an absurd anomaly with that absolute fantastic fire hose at mid levels. Hard to rely on conventional wisdom when said bastion of knowledge has almost no occurrence of those sort of parametrics - I admit that. I've never seen that many 150 kt + flags over that broad a swath since perhaps 1993's March event. Interestingly ... this isn't the first time I've seen those velocities this season, either.

Yup...welcome to N. Phillie folks... This entire systemic evolution is N. Phillie climo incarnate and is their pain -

I was just going to commiserate how you can almost sense the models are trying to weasel out of doing even that much - I mean...I don't care much for icing above general aesthetic nature of the aftermath under blue sky and sun prism romanticism and shit but ... I could almost see us getting 1.2" of snow, a lull with meaningless freezing drizzle, then ...nothing happens when the low opens up a faux warm sector over a cold low level that is an odd situation with no lift over top. and we get nothing... Notice the 54 hour insult to injury...with wind gusts to 48 mph imparting a flash freeze and one snow flake per minute under street lamps. that's how your run a sore-butting -

Pretty clearly this whole system was proving we can lose by C.H.'s

That is such a bizarre look at 48 hours .. Have we ever seen a QPF layout like that -

Yeah the initial 'slight' south suppression didn't translate ...looks like it's heading left of previous on this main ordeal

Yeah it's 3 mb deeper down to 988 and it's just getting going near Baltimore

well ...I dunno, the 'wave' identity is getting a bit entropy - it's starting to just look like an extended warm frontal arm with the light snow axis lifted up and stalled near your neck of the woods... back through northern NH/VT... While much of interior SNE lulls for 12 hours. Appears the main thrust is a rather potent deepening that looks like it's about to bomb on the mid-Atl to ACK transit - so perhaps similar to the 12z if like 25 to 50 mile S. We'll see where this goes... I guess there's "some" sort of wave 1 identity but it's really more like squirting out meso circulations rather than a bona fide 'wave 1'

The NAM appears to be a little suppressed comparing 12z's 30 to this new 24 - 'nother words, a tick south

right... we'll be straight proven right about the colder solutions down to a bone chilling 33.8 F

I dunno ...I still think it is possible for a NAM -like correction to score the coup here. There's reasons for that. But there are reasons to go against too ... I just don't think it's a slam dunk toss because there's some equal weighting - I'll see when the Euro comes out.

oh wait..I'm not savvy ... are we not supposed to repost P-weather products?

SO at 54 hours ... the NAM: *IF* the evolution taking place in this chart below is correct, and you are icing west of I-95/N of the Pike in SNE at this period in time ... you are ending that way, or snow - particularly considering the other physical processes going on in total with this thing... That's your fate - question is ..is this correct. Hint, I think it is more so than not given the nearer termed BL conditioning/pre we are setting up leading in.

So forgive me if someone's already mentioned, but the NAM is a snow storm wrt the 2nd half of the main deal Friday, where that does the old collapsing snow/rain line... It could be fascinating along Rt 2, where a potentially extended period of ZR/accretion transitions directly to a snow and increase in wind as that low deepens underneath and we start ramping up a bit more iso. wind response. If there is loading ..that ups the grid implications in those regions - just talking this solution. But, I gotta say, this run overall looks like it corrected smack into my early thoughts and musings about how odd the BL handling looks with these models trying to take the low through a region that "should," given the total synoptic circumstances/evolution, have more resistance in place. This run simply ticks the low track to where it really should. Sorry to say, it's not exactly an unbelievable solution ...out side of west Atlantic Jovian mlv wind maxes that is.. ha

Yeah ...I'm not so sure the 'idea' is wrong though... We've been doing similarly all season in this gradient saturation when/where excessive velocities are being modeled just beneath those "pressed" right quadrants of jet maxes.. I mean, even way out in advance of the exit regions of those S/W mechanics, the 'over-ridge' arcs are boasting 70kts at times! Really is quite remarkable. I started noticing double flag wind pips back in Dec and thought the same thing ..not sure that is correct. But multiple guidance sources were displaying those, then. Then, we start getting all these ground-based speed records being set by commercial airliners flying west to east trajectories ...and well, at least we know things are fast, huh - Might be interesting to revisit and see if that verifies ?

thanks Nick - see ...that's all that needed to be said I'll give it a try -

Not sure why the adversarial and/or denigration is really necessary - But, you don't correct me. You don't possess the necessary education, nor acumen, despite all protestations you purport - you don't. And unfortunately for you and your weird problems with acceptance of others ... I am good at this shit. Sorry - deal

Well, I have more snow in Ayer than I did in 2011-2012 today... a season that ended that way too. So, it can be worse. I mean that statement is obviously, obvious - ha. But suppose at some point in the last 1,000,000 years of eastern North America's climate, there is at least one winter that never got colder than 50 F and never saw snow anywhere in this geographical region? Maybe ..maybe not. But this ain't that, and this ain't that 2012 ending, either. Sides, all grousing and close-minded cynicism based on conditioning aside for a moment, in 1956 ( ?57 ) there was like 40 to 60" of snow in March between the MA and NE regions after a pallid piece of shit three months. I'm sure somewhere there was a weather nerd of the day, waiting for the 6 pm radio report like we heroin addict over psychotropic model run addiction now, that had the same perspective on matters in February when his soul was reanimated by satan for the sole intent of getting him/her to eat more shit... Then, that March came along. Oh I don't want it ..as per my own proclivity to opine the tribulations of loathing NE spring I have upon more than a single occasion drafted up many a too-long-a-speech admonishing.. But, objectivity is in there somewhere, and my own hypocrisy has been admitted...I can 'turn on' the winter charms if the situation really calls for it, and get all giddy and happy and bi-polar with the rest of you when 1888 walks through the door. Seriously... I really do think that as the gradient slackens ( seasonally ..) as it typically does ending this month and going into next, and just prior to the sun's diabatic forcing on the hemisphere, there is that time of year. 'Bowling' season as it were... I think this year we have a shot at a -NAO west based...even if not hugely demonstrative in the charts, ...almost by behavior. It's like 'sloshing'? If you imagine the system has been pressed to one end...then, the press slackens off and things overcompensate - metaphor. But perhaps with all this fast velocity and +AO stuff, we'll be left with two or three weeks where there is surplus mid and upper level latent heat fluxed to 60 and 70 N ...which could trigger ephemeral blocking nodes for a time. I almost see that as more possible than the standard chances this particular March. We'll see...

Lol ... No need to write the Grapes Of Wrath ... f-you winter 'bout sums 'er up

Yeah forgive me ...I only bother with the granular free sources out there - I don't think the Euro is nearly prophetic enough to charge for that area of ECMWFs corp, when I can get to the same sort of predictive skill using sources that really are free, combined with experience and intelligence ..but that's just me. Anyway, if that's true, those are impressive depths. The 12z run yesterday began looking more coalesced with the total evolution of this event. Less like wave one and two and three ..and whatever, and more like the first wave was really just the arm of a warm boundary S and overrunning getting going out ahead because of the fast flow stretching and exciting that perhaps ahead of typology for leading lows... Then, the main thrust aloft careens off Jersey with that tube of insane 130 kt 500mb jet core tunneling it's way S of the Cape and we get a bomb-esque and all that. Seems the 00z is really just continuing along that theme.

Sometimes it seems like the climate belt's already shifted and this is like what the north Phillie weather dorks used brow beat over back a quarter century ago. I mean, we get 27 DP air richly introduced into the region and a damming source - we shouldn't be dealing with lows cutting through ALB ( GFS ) Hard to say if that tact is just an artifice of the GFS. I can host some reasoning that sounds scientific and Meteorologically clad but ..it could also be proven science fiction in this scenario too. It's been a recurrent theme this winter, veracious theoretical application proves ...not veracious - seemingly by an agency. Muah hahahaha Anyway, frustration aside, this really does look like even the Euro is too far NW ... and the low should be squeezed S. of interior SNE. It may just be that we are back to what we were musing about two or three days ago .. how this is a now-cast opportunity. I used the adjective 'nightmare' before ..but I don't think the stakes are high enough for that. The implication difference ( sensibly ) may not matter.. If the low goes west, there will be a triple point. If the low stays south because of BL forcing, either way, 850 mb roasts the 0 C isotherm to central NE as a destiny it would seem...and that probably extends ZR in either scenario a considerable distance N. The GFS' QPF void - I wonder - if is partially a mechanical feed-back from it's bad BL thermodynamics. It seems to go out of the way to organize the low into a primary structure ... by somehow avoiding/negating BL forcing altogether. That's what the voiding in there is about..It's about quasi-splitting the QPF field around the cyclone model when its cyclone is over North Adams Massachusetts - its particular rendition of that model has a bizarre BL that's it own physics are responsible for. Hence... 'feed-back' But that could be science fiction. I know what I just said is plausible... Either way, that null region was hinted by some other guidance' up to these recent runs, too to maybe not something to ignore. Plus... storm track climo is moving W-N everywhere all over the hemisphere as is proven in a host of papers I can refer folks too..and this season's correction behavior seems to either be coincidentally doing that anyway, or, is a expressing it.. So maybe we just need even more BL forcing than our experiences lend us to believing we need these days to keep lows from blithely modeling their way through veritable mountain ranges like that... jesus

Hah. Haha all I can hear in my head is Bonnnnng Now get out there and mow the lawn

Euro was trying to write that on the wall this morning too that was really close to an open wave bomb this morning

Part I Advisory snow Part II warning ice Part III advisory snow