Typhoon Tip

Sure - if one assumes the modoki this and the NINO 1+2 that are still AS effectual in forcing ... maybe - sure... I'm not here to make declaratives and aver these hypotheses need preclude the scientific process or nothin' lol - I'm just saying, Modoki shmokey ... personally? I hunch ENSO over all, thus certainly idiosyncrasies contained within, are being rendered less forcible to the entirety of the planetary integral. Oh,... I bet this is the insight of the young Met century that chaos will now go out of its way to happenstance/circumstantially make it only look less true by metaphysically constructing a dildo... I mean a winter that actually fits the predisposition. Everyone goes seeee ... lowers their guard, and the oceans stop C02 fixing and the extinction event is complete - muah ahahaha oh, sorry - wrong subject

Mmm ...yeah, wasn't gonna chime in on that but ... that seems to me to be a simple matter of 'momentum storage' ... Other intermediary obtruding forces can mask or mute (transiently) those forces that have a longer integrate curve/weight. It's like ENSO ( prior to 2000 I should add ) was like a revolving door, and summer temporarily holds the door against the motor, but soon as the kid stops f'n around and playing with the door, it resumes it rotation - This is a useful intellectual exercise - it sort of adds support to what I was just talking about - pretty much exactly, too - What does summer do to the hemisphere? It neutralizes gradients ( in general...) the ambient gradients are lessened...the flow unwinds and becomes more nebular because the velocities are less ( A is not longer motile toward B ) ... and that hides the ENSO by cutting it's integral forcing - It's almost a circumstantial proof right there ... if we extend the HC beyond the kiss-point of the ENSO with the westerlies,... that's sort of cutting it's integral forcing ability. Same thing in principle.

Maybe it is because the ENSO SST distribution is no longer AS usurping as it used to be in the total integrated machinery of the planetary circulation result. As an extension ... and possible connection to GW, coincidences suck in physics... usually, there's causality connection; and it appears more so than merely coincidence that recent ENSO events, having not been registering as impactful along/at normal climate pathways as they were prior to the recent empirically proven GW acceleration ..., is just such an annoying coincidence ...which by the way, the advent of those failures has been concurrent with recency - My hypothesis is that the expansion of the tropical/subtropics found here : https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ ... is at least partial in that causality connection. The longer version: The idea of that expansion of the HC isn't my personal work - so ...maybe start considering that ( not you personally but in general - ). But, changing the previous ocean-atmospheric modal exchange is as good as any initial educated/existentially rooted guess. It's just to gin up a scientific discussion if not actually process therein, to formulating theory as any I've heard... Which, unfortunately ...isn't a lot - and I admit to that frustrating me. These are non-arbitrary substantive observations being made by a much larger bevy of sources other than that just being made by me ... A ... flows toward B. There's a gap between just being statistically/numerically reliant, and understanding that gradient is everything in Universe. If there is no movement of A --> B ...entropy is infinite and there is nothing? This isn't mere philosophy. All actions and our ability to sense " reality" itself, are because of cause and effects an essentially infinite solution of forces attempting to get to a rest state... That includes both why the wind blows, and... one's ability to sense the wind blowing. This adolescent truism seems to escape us when it comes to the teleconnectors and the statistics; when we assume +1 NAO means this in the atmosphere for us, that sort of unwittingly acts as though that +1 is a force in itself. It's not. It's a result over time then averaged. But the nature of A is no longer stable. And that changes how A moves toward B ... That change = seasonal forecast pieces of shit for not seeing it. SO... tfwiw - ... If the HC band expands above the previous interface of the ENSO ocean-atmospheric coupled region, that is a whopper change in how A relates to B ( which in the context, 'B' refers to the domain outside the ENSO o/a realm) .. It's like ( haha ) a stable marriage. It's runnin' along fine, but then B becomes an alcoholic ... an abusive one at that... Meanwhile A is still doing what A always did ( in this metaphor, oscillating between warm(cool) phases of ENSO), but the changes in B ... means the nature of the marriage has changed - what we do when we ignore expanding HCs and GW and all this shit ...is we assume that B can be an abusive asshole alcoholic and it won't change the nature of their relationship. WRONG I admit to having noticed gradient saturation and higher velocities/R-wave stretching and progressive patterning bias over the last 15 to 20 years as becoming more discerned over the course ... but, this science publication above shows that said reality outside of said frame, is ALSO onto this - and you should be too This regressive reliance is not showing evolution or learning ... I realize that's hard to do in a pathology that is hardened across generations of other consistencies...but therein is the problem. We've lost the consistency - I don't intend this to be an admonishment ... people really need to start questioning the % forcing capacitance of the ENSO's longer duration oceanic-atmospheric coupled teleconnector when gradient changes how it integrates.

Lol, so basically they all suck shit -

and again... yes, Will is right that the GFS tends to do better in faster flows... but, it also is "too fast" relative to that fast flow too - It's too fast relative to any circumstance - so the underlying canvas is fast and that does happen to placate a model that has a fast error - flirts with making it right for the wrong reasons.

Oh it's not going to stop doing this shit in winter 'kidding me -

People need to realize that it does that on the other side too - ..i.e,. it raises heights too emphatically over eastern N/A when there are settle-out depressions in the hypsometric layout over the west. I wonder if the big D6.5 to 10 warm spell isn't getting a 20% kickback or some indeterminate amount, too -

Yup! thanks - wonderfully illustrates the curvature (amplitude) bias I've been annoying people with for 4 years ...

Yeah ...I guess in fairness the other guidance' have a "dent" running along the pressure contouring out there S of Bermuda... Probably TPC will have a new yellow X around 55W/30N .. should this next cycle or two continue to carry said dent west.

I would hedge the earlier time tables on Saturday ... Whatever takes place, typically in progressive ass-end of testing range for 747 weather patterns try to blow whatever the models are indicating half way to England before the next cycle of the given model even starts processing -.. They never get the timing right and the systems always end up outpacing by at least a little -

ECMWF Inc. ...may need to start redesigning their 4-D variable secret recipe for the new era jet rage

CMC is new ... it's organizing the garbage out around 55W/25N into TC and moves it rather climo anachron west .... threatening a SSE approach to the EC

It's an interesting turn of phrase 'recency bias' I know you don't mean anything by it ...but 'bias' tends to imply an attitude against something, particularly in the parlance of an internet "water cooler" social media diversion - haha... but yeah ... I like to rely upon trend quite a bit. Trend awareness is equally fair as a word choice, and is actually a wise factor in any deterministic aspect of weather forecast - range and domain notwithstanding. Particularly, when a given trend can be rooted ...or at in the least suspected as being, causally linked to x-y-z ..etc. In this case? I think there are reasons - valid - to assess the trend of recent winters may repeat? And I mean to put the "?" on that.

You can actually see that in the 'art' of weather graphics when peering over the 500 mb v- ...The positive vorticities swaths begin to curve or bow such that the southern ends lag back SW... That's absorption happening. Here's an example of the resulting positive sloping... random interval off the 12z GFS to illustrate the point:

No arg from me... I said just yesterday or the day before whenever that was that this might be a good year for NJ Model lows ... Miller B's fits in with those. We just gotta make sure the ambient flow doesn't end up with too may hypsometric lines ... because that is synonymous with huge wind as a base-state. That's bad for S/W's because their local wind maxes get absorbed -

can you run that regression for prior to, then post ... 1990... say .... or 2000, separately ? granted the sample set size is not inspiring much confidence in the latter interval - I still want to see the result. you've got all instances in there ...judging by the shear number in the scatter plot ( eye-ballin' ) that's like all ENSO deviation demarcation events going back ... I dunno but a long ways? I don't think the ENSO states are "as effectual" in modulating the winter patterns since 2000 as they were prior to that for a bevy of reasons that I've opined ad nauseam and don't wanna get into at the moment... But, it may also be that there's just not enough scatter plot ballast since 1990/2000 in to be of much use either - hands cuffed by prediction vs having to wait on verification in that sense I suspect the warm ENSO events have more memory than the other way around, particularly prior to 2000. But, because the other way around is more likely the base state in having "normal" unimpeded trade wind sea-surface stressing, that tends to keep the NINO 3.4, 1 and 2 regions less than EL NINO ... The base canvas would thus 'erase' the modest NINA events by virtue of merely absorbing its signature into the ongoing circulation of the hemisphere in those scenarios... NINOs however, might be more observably lingering ... just a hunch but also a digression -

Yeah...I'm seeing this as error prone in both direction - making it difficult to parse out a "correction vector" if you will ... heh seriously, ..the Euro somewhat more than less subtly at time, carries on with a tendency to carve the flow back W too steeply at Ds 5 .. particularly D7 + ... It then ends during Ds 8-9-10 with either too much end-state meridional structure, or... has to pass through one that was too much so ...correcting back flat by 10 - either variation, I see the Euro do that all the f'n time. Yet, as you guys joked last week ( and I agree frankly ..) you go to any verification scoring database and it's like all accolades and polish ... Maybe it is just something that it does over the box of 120 W - 70W by 40 N ...so inbetween the seams of it's testing domain ??? Just an idea - Anyway, what the Euro is doing is dropping the hammer - perhaps - too mightily in keeping with that tendency. So, we end up with a historic warm spell in the OV and NE regions. There's some flirtation out there with a BD but frankly ... even though BDs are a fact of New England life and we should expect them ( regardless... ), that deep layer general circulation set really does not support a very convincing one... Otherwise, that's a recipe for the latest hottest October temper ever between Dayton OH to Boston somewheres... It had this on a run ... yesterday - I think it was the 12z... So, it's been fiddling with this... But again, I need to really see this inside of D5 to bite because the Euro tends to have to go through said correction two-step - not always but we'll see. Thing is, ... you get to 79 on D6 in that with that warm front ..dry warm fropa too... But the atmosphere then starts caching kinetic charge ... and nights start elevating launch pads...such that by D3 of that stretch... you could be in the mid f'um 80s! ... relative to that animation it has... That's obviously a half bubble off the plumb line to go out and forecast that at this range, but, that's relative to this model run. The 2-meter depictions on that cycle definitely shirk the potential - it would be warmer D6.5 out to the end of that particular run. Meanwhile...the GFS ... it's bias is the other direction.. I mean, perhaps literally too - not just figuratively. It has a velocity surplus that is being missed by everyone, because the flow everywhere is also ... in a velocity surplus. Really incredible as a separate bamboozling phenomenon... but I'm onto the damn thing. SO, it ends up stretching the longitude of wave features so dramatically... it either ablates warm penetrations, or... gets so extreme beyond D6 that it flips into the next wave cog and the pattern rolls into the next configuration entirely... And that is almost like what is happening here when straight up comparing the D9 Euro to the GFS from 00z ... That synoptic variance would have almost a 25 F sensible difference/consequence for the NE on that run. We'll prolly end up somewhere in between ... which is banal and uninspired boring weather -

Halloween nor oh I think you mean the "perfect storm" - which I refuse to capitalize because of the cartoon provinciality in calling it that ... ? That was also Sandy ... btw - Not that anyone asked or needs the lessen ... but all these fit into that ilk, really. There are no true reduxes in nature; analogs are what they are but are never 100% Anytime the large scale circulation evacs a TC out of the deeper SW Atl Basin tropics/subtropics, pulling it up to where it is vulnerable to ... and exceptionally rarely succeeds, merging vorticity/physical fields into either a severing mid and upper level cold core low ..or trough capture in general, you are essentially dealing with similar ( to varying degrees) area of event spectrum... I've been posting about this the last couple days ... the autumn is the time of the year that this is likely to happen if at all, and amid the likeliness ... most of the time it is just in the models. For one, hurricanes need to be present as an initial concern -duh.. But, particularly the mid to latter autumn, when we start to see trough incursions probing deeper in latitude over eastern N/A, do we pass through a touchy modeling period of time. Every year we see this .. Usually - well, used to be ... the GGEM was the more guilty. Back 15 years ago, that model couldn't resist! Every cycle between ~ Oct 10 and Nov 21 seemed to wrapped up a D12 category 3 hurricane inside a rampart of baroclinic moating .. It was like the physics of that model had a duality at times. But, you know... it was just taking a real phenomenon that can happen in nature, and assuming it was happening far more frequently than it ever does ( in the virtual realm of its performance ). Out in the real world...return rate's prooobably like I don't 1::70 years for snow involvement? Just spit ballin' .. I don't think we very frequently see full on fusion deals - certainly not 1804's ...my god. ( so I guess in that sense, we are due? ... unless Sandy counts.. ) But, anyway.. if the perfect cartoon ( it's almost like the era was still a bit green/bush-league to the notion of fusion phenomenon so that perfect jazz had more cache ) is the storm you're thinking of the capture of hurricane Grace into a cut-off low S of the Maritimes was October 28-30th of 1991 - otherwise, I don't believe I recall a 1993 nor'easter other than that other rogue event that also got the notorious 'storm of the century' earlier that March.

Euro heh. Wow

yeh meanwhile the 12z para GFS explains the concept of not buying into seasonal numerical instability in the models out at 300 hours - poof Something may be there - like I said...they models don't actually "make it up" ...

Man ... tomorrow and Thursday makes today's pricey shit-show almost worth it... If the NAM's profiled numerology is right - The FOUS has Logan supporting 77 for high temperature in JJAS ... not sure about October sun but either way...mild to warm. The wind angled off-shore, and only breezy for a change - not a this proving ground at an emission controls - I hate that. The only way to get 73 F to be chilly on Earth is here in this p.o.s. SNE climate curse. Anyway, ceiling RH < 30% both days? Talkin' euclase emerald skies bathing us in 70+ .. MOS is only 70 to 73 at some typicals but ... not sure if that's climate weighting ... the raw numbers support more ... whatever -

Yeah in his defense... some sort of training warm frontal wedge convection appears to be going on in his vicinity https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/world/un-natural-disasters-climate-intl-hnk/index.html

it's too much - sure... Glad you picked up on the sarcasm - tough to deliver that ... I do think the world is warming and I do fear thresholds and so forth but come on - look how the models took the planet of Venus and crash-landed it into the Pacific Basin ...it's like minus 10 SD La Nina which is outside the theoretical bounds of Terrain physics or something ahahaha

...Since you asked me and care so very deeply how my opinion affects you and all ... I think this could be an N-stream dominated winter, but one that wends its way to (climate signal + average cold)/2 = ... take a f'in guess how that parlays snow... it's like a N-stream dominate winter superimposed over a planetary hockey-stick (denying ...) climate modality that doesn't end well for winter enthusiasts ... oh, not for decades. Okay, as we know in climate science, it doesn't move on a predictable slope though. I'm starting to wonder if might cross over a threshold ... years before Will's take on things that a 'no winter scenario' here won't set into until beyond the visible universe of our life spans -- how? because we arrogantly ( as human tendency ) keep expecting a slower deal merely because our egos get in the way of the fact that just because we can't imagine horror unfolding tomorrow, that means it can't happen. But, threshold happen by breaking at stress points... and boom! as they say in Ebonics, 'we be f'ed' Not to be alarming or nothin' but Mad Max's setting was the year 2021 muah hahahaha. The U.N. isn't holding back today ... 'the earth will become an uninhabitable hell to millions' .. Somewhere between those two futures lurks the inevitability smearing of our Currier&Ives portrait of winters - ...maybe

The obvious ? that's a global warming depiction there ...when every single guidance source has an unbalanced warm/cool ratio ... that's a warming world - sorry.