Typhoon Tip

..ah, very vestigial ... it's just imho but ...I see that kind of cane-fusion mania as a modern model propensity to do this in the autumns.. moreso an artifice of modeling, in other words. I've been harping ... perhaps annoyingly ( lol ) but since the late 1990s, when model resolution and total platform expansion and ensemble this and all these different physics go involved, and then the temporal ranging of modeling really fell over the distant horizon, we've been seeing these exotic time range virtual plausibility scenarios like that. That's A B ... I think this 'potential' - already in place and thus humbly I suggest is already successful as early recognition we made awhile ago - is really based on a recognizing something else entirely than modeling behavior. I think it reflects a model hemispheric change in transition seasons, and I hypothesize it has to do with velocity in the westliers being augmented - and that is driving NE Pac tipping flow/ continental folding of patterns earlier in autumns ... This is causing cold loading events in the Canadian shield. I don't know if this is climate change -related... ? It's a fantastic question but...it could also be part of the multi-decadal Arctic Oscillation curve, which I believe reasonably well positively correlates with the PDO/AMO and the Solar Cycle... All three of these overlays show they tend to move together, and they all flag -EPO and -NAO/ flipping these neggie - The interesting aspect is that the NAO has been lagged and/or retardedly out of sequence ... but therein' is the velocity saturation in the flow...I think it is stretching the field and the NAO is fragile compared to the majestic Pac domain region and the latter I think denies the former it's blocking at times...when the flow is fast and that is favoring/sending a progressive signal down wind of the Pacific maelstrom. ...it's a lot of intuitive jargon and supposition - not averring this is 'the way of the world' just some thoughts.

Yeah... as an aside ... we seem to be in an era where ( perhaps 'synergistically' ) anomalous results are more so favored. It's interesting... but the word "anomalous" means whatever's in question is an expression of Standard Deviation, which should be rarer by convention. But what it is, is that we are emerging out of a period of relative predictability and climate quiescence...and perhaps indicative of a changing climate; these sort of things or more likely to occur moving forward. We have to remember ...statistics are based upon what has happened, and then we base a prediction/ .. event on that data set, but that by virtue of being in stable past, means that it may also be illogical to apply said data set to the present or future - But blah blah ...I just wanted to say that ... it could "powder" out ... It could - I don't think so? but it could ...because sometimes if/when an event is going to just pour over an SD threshold it just goes ahead and hammers the location completely out of whack to really put stank on it... So yeah, it's the end of October - we 25 F in aggregates getting even small of all things. But even in 2011 event, it was hard to get "that" kind of snow going and it's more likely this wends its way into a 31.5er if we really get to a synoptic event. I'm sure you/we all know this stuff..just sayn'

That's a great QPF impression of where the mid level frontogenic forcing is located... as at the time of this frame, there is a lagged mid level just max nosing N of that llv baroclinic wedge along where the cyclone is nodal... But that is UVM driving lift up the frontal slope aloft and causing that subtle magenta tinting heavy snow band to spill out along that axis there in interior SNE... It's not a declaration/ .. forecast for that to actually occur, just what the model is illustrating/ physical plausibility of the virtual event it creates. But, this sort of phenomenon DOES happen sometimes... and warm ground or not, if such a band evolves that probably 3 solid hours of S+ there and thunder clap or two as well, you'd be accumulating - probably it ends with glops clopping off the off trees and powerlines... and then star lit late evening we actually cement things over night.... crazy - but ... timing wins with that cold air availability working under "mid level magic" as it were

mm... not that same phenomenon - keep tryin' lol no I get what ur saying but exciting to cover the first is an entirely different phenomenon. It won't ( for me ) languish moods if it doesn't work out - because there is no codependency on it to modulate one's sense of well-being ...It's part of the psychotropic e-addiction problem in society/ civility regardless, covered recently in documentary et al - this isn't just me ...where people are depending upon positive feedback in a soulless society of shallowing narcissists... sounds like a good 'cultural implosion' model for a Sci Fi novel but tho I take liberties ( poetically ) in that description, the problem with personal reliance on the web for both re enforcing personally ideologies, to creating 'faux happiness' was covered in 60-minutes, and it documented elsewhere and is real - again..it's not just me. Although..I started noticing this phenomenon 10 years ago prior to it's popularization in marginal observation sciences... Anyway, I don't wanna derail this ... It's exciting to cover the season's first multi-faceted synoptic event ...nothing more.

Probably the 1 to 1.5" of strat cool moderate banding QPF rain helps more .. but any transition to snow would be wet and will contain a decent water content so it all helps to bring Humanity back from the dessicated brink of mortality ...

That is a fascinating coincidence ...or is it... ? It's wildly differing topically to mention: but...I'm noticing that there is always a tropical entity evacuating out of the lower latitudes of the SW Atl Basin when the models are kinking the the flow and drilling CAA events across SE Canada... It's hard to separate the chicken and the egg but it seems like the there's a super-set of equations that kind of signals favorable tropics prior to the pattern actually modulating into a continental buckle - ...just sayn' lol But yeah... there may in fact be reproducible "quasi reduxes" to this shit -

ah,..sorry guys - sure thx ... admin moving too quickly this morning ftw ! lol

yup! ...I cited these notions too earlier on last eve and how this has 'no margin for error' It's a phasing deal but doing so thru an unusually narrow longitude - interesting... There's actually three entities btw ... The Para G and oper. G are both coherent with Zeta remnants peeling S of LI ... Could bring some IB over the nascent polar front and then we "lull" ( maybe ...) whatever is falling at that time - probably goes to raw mist... But then the N/stream couples and subsumes the S/streams ... and #3 crucially as you said, 'legit cold' loading arrives .. It's hard to even pull a barrier/drain jet out of that synopsis, though there's likely to be 925 mb accelerations around typical topography. But the point is .. with whole region C-NE --> S seeming to wall at once, that signifies a deep-ish layer that means bidness' .. I could see people 44 F in light to moderate rain, then cat pawing at 39 when I see that... start going to parachutes at 37 in that look, shedding T's in a pulse and subtle backing wind direction. As an aside, we're seeing unusual temperature variance either side of ambient polar fronts in recent autumns. < 0 C 850s temps reside where mere 300 naut mi S still supports 80 F ...spanning along vast stretches of the continent .. Autumn extremes are not hugely unusual, but that 'not huge' is becoming 'more usual' in autumns since ~ 2000... 62 F like days with clouds and blase slope sun, and then 37 with cat paws the next day is deceptively non-dramatic and slips under awareness in a modernity that is perhaps too distracting/culturally to think of it as significant .. or perhaps 'jolting' is just becoming too commonplace in itself to take note of it. But the first 30 years of my life, it was not that frequent that mere 24 hourly temp changes needed to be nearing 30 F as frequently as it has in the last 20 years... way more common than it used to be. Even doing so spanning 72 hours.. it's relative to all temporal scales ... increased frequency of larger variance. altho today 'feels' like a step down drab Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air.

Oh it’s likely to be a notable TC ... it’s got that tightly coherent nucleus look garland by that pink nausea cold ... dumping ocean sodium into the the lower stat I wonder what the IOH is down there. Prolly gotta dive a half mile to get the cline waters under 80...

I’d still take the Euro at day 4.5 over all others.

Very little margin for error on that at the end of the week… it’s a “ flat wave phase“ for lack of better words… The whole thing between the N/stream and S/stream rejoining the former ... is being pancaked through a very compressed field but these runs ( Euro bites midway as others noted) still trying eek constructive sequence with good cadence .. other run cycles may be a bit more distracted Once again it’s going to come down to what happens in the west with the Heights; first the pattern dumps a quasi-close low into the SW than that feature gets bumped east… And then as it moves through the Mississippi Valley and starts to turn north east thru the Tennessee Valley it all depends on how much the flow tips Northwest over the Great Lakes; if there’s a better post ejection ridge response the N/stream corrects steeply and that’s gonna make all the difference in the world. Note this thing’s been on the chart for for five days I wrote about this and that it had certain hallmarks of being something that shouldn’t be ignored and I still think so what that exactly is going to entail ... we’ll see. Not gonna be shocking with that much cold air burgeoning into Ontario and then filtering/pulled into the circulation as it matures underneath that this would get all the way down at the lower elevations at least into interior southern New England perhaps the second half for synoptic snow in the air gaining some possibility Central NE easier

Word! ...it's pretty much when I grew up as a fantasy Met into an adult pragmatic Met - lol... Before then, the specter of gaining 50 F in 12 hours was just too magnificent to believe... Since then nothing is amazing - geez It was 12 F at 8 am with flurries under very light pellets ... at 8 pm it was 61 on the monitor up at the UML lab ...while white noise turbines straining trees. And as you said, wind-whipped fogs shrouds being yanked off snow banks ... Students were pouring out of dorms to rejoice in the faux nature of the warmth ... energy and love for the loss - I mean..if one is a winter enthusiast. I think I was shaking my head in awe at one moment standing wondering how in the the f that was possible.. Yeah 8 am the next morning I think it was it was like 30 but cold enough to recement- ... Seriously, it was lessen in not being plugged into the the temp on the dial, when there is 0 polar high N of the region.. The high was retreating overnight and abandoned it's own decoupled air mass...so the cold was very low level... probably only 2000 feet deep with a hugely positively sloped sounding over top I imagine... But for those of us privy to our local climo ... all you need is " 1 " in polar high N and it disproportionately takes 12 to 18 more hours than even a quantum scale resolution model to admit the the cold is in place ...so, we get a payback on barrier jets and tucking when our moods fixed on keeping the goods and there's like any drain available at all... It just sucks when we get that going in early April -

Won't speak for William out of hand ... but, we are definitely talking about 1993-1994 winter shenanigans either way ... the paper he mentions exists... i think now I recall it but gosh... 25 years and counting isn't high on priorities any longer. it's not likely "as rare" as we may think .. it's just that that Jan deal in '94 was like really tall.. the warm layer above 800 mb over Logan

Hmm... that D6/7 scenario .. since the para-G's jest 18z yesterday, every cycle is pretty locked in on a scenario that offers the season's first real synoptic winter complexion. ( Don't want to get into a subjective perspective debate; I realize we had the western ME thing a week or so ago ..but that was elevation reliant and really more meso-beta scales) Now, .. obviously the para' model is in experimental/beta, but some non/less conventionally popular tools are latching on now... That ICON and the GGEM ( 12z ) fits, and when considering the GGEM warm bias at this time range ...and the fact that it parks a 1030 mb nascent polar high NW of Maine and arcs the llv +PP down into the damming/barrier jet climo ...heh, I don't think the GGEM's totally liquid in that scenario frankly. Plus, as I intimated, the PNA is sharply rising then - that's a native H.A. signal, particularly when the positive NAO is afoot - and those two tend to run along in a modest anti-correlation, so the notion overall has the statistical support.. What we have here is a +NAO that is west-based in the hypsometric layout. Concurrent in these models that are tipping into an an early consensus (?) is thus a strengthening N-stream jet aecing over SE Canada .. That creates a confluence flow structure, under which indeed we find an arm of gathering polar +PP ... this is becoming increasingly evident in the guidance I've seen ... ICONic, GGEM, GFS, Para-G, and Japan.. haven't checked the Euro but my confidence in that guidance beyond the D4.5 range has been rattled recently ... I haven't seen many individual members of the GEFs just yet, but the trend/blend is subtly deeper upon deep layer approach D5 --> 6 ..not unusual for the GEF camp/oper. to have to back off progressivity leaning toward nearer terms... bear that in mind. The other aspect I'm intrigued by is that if you go look at the Kocin et al and other examples, it is not unusual to have an antecedent quasi cut off low plunk into the SW ...then, gets kicked east to intersect with the N stream ( said )... times well... ( for run, kind of like a tossing b-ball ahead and running and jumping to catch and dunk/self ally -ooper). *Not* intending to suggest a K.U. event here... just that some of the players in a round-about sense bears some precedence - obviously, all of which are formulaic at this time. D6 is late mid/range on the cusp of extended.. granted, but is substantively better performed than a D11 ...

yeah ..that's got to be it, the one I'm thinking off. I was up at UML at the time and remember it took up a whole class session in discussion in FAST when we got around to it after the intersession.. . because it was like a 7 or 8,000 foot tall column b-52 carpet bombing sleet chunks while that S ( it was only moderate steady snow where we were in central-N Middls) .. .But these were big sleet pellets... punching holes in the new snow pack weird.. And it was knuckle stinging cold in that event... I think it was 22C on the station monitor with moderate sleet and S- at the time I looked.

Late autumn / .. early winter ‘93 was a comedy of greedy grinch going to far .. It was as tho it couldn’t resist stealing that much more with that +NAO it torpedoed it’s intent to ruin winter. NAO positive anomaly grew so extraordinary this establish a strong NW static conveyor N of the Lakes region that was confluence with the Pac mean jet ... oops ... grinch failure. although “grinch” mean specifically as it all relates to Christmas .. but it think the first in the series of winter storm was between then and NYears. fast flows transporting angular WAA up and over said confluence-related llv cold ftw! It’s way we had so many very tall sleet column type deals. I remember one storm the (then) ETA FOUS was < 0C at all there sigma levels 800, 900, and 980 mb in an inch of sleet with 4-6” of OES from growth underneath ... That was the first winner I had ever experienced where storms were repetitive almost like clockwork ... every three or four days we were under another winter storm watch ... sometimes watch’s would go up when the storm in play wasn’t even finished. You know that’s kind of a subtle sort of unnoticed thing and that we’ve had a lot of winters with that repetitive storm behavior. since then .. it’s almost like that was the flip of a different paradigm as far as that behavior

Meanwhile the Para G has a blue bomb into the Berks and central NE .. Models in general I’ve been flirting with something in that timeframe sometimes more efficient than other times in phasing other times keeping the wave spacing separate and shear it out… The flow being fast does favor shear but there is enough cold air around and with that rising PNA like that there’s kind of a pseudo-Archimbault look

I wonder if it might be worth considering these QBOs at relative values - comparing +1, vs +10, vs +20 ... -1 QBOs ...etc, to the solar min, the PDO/AMO multi-decadal oscillation and ENSO. I keep reading 'a +QBO during this' ... or aa -QBO during that' ... but it seems one should not auto-applicate the QBO just based on whether it is positive or negative. As we know, the QBO is a top down mass oscillation phenomenon... where +20 equates to a strong westerly wind flux, .. +1 is a weak... Moreover the index moves from +20 to +1 to -1 and -20 ... and back, repeating every 20 to 36 months or so.. Is a +5 QBO during a solar minimum the same correlation result as a +5 during a solar max... ? It's obviously hugely complex - requiring a team of Aspergers types with a penchants for pattern recognition to ferret out, granted...but, it seems quite questionable to me to just apply a +7 QBO to a solar min that is extraordinarily strongly negative. This latter may "overcome" the anti-correlation of +7 with SSW ( for example) and drive either a SSW anyway...or, maybe it is an SSW with a slow downwelling... I mean, jesus - there's a science fiction novel there that is actually too plausible to just be pure fiction! Or not. Earlier this year ( I think it was a 2nd time this has ever happened ) the QBO abruptly broke cycle.. It slipped back negative as January turned page and continued, only resuming positive over this summer..and still is so.. Boo ya! But will it remain that way... Since 2015, we've suddenly registered two of these occurrences ...which never happened since the 1950s. This adds uncertainty ... ouch

I almost wonder if the season either coughs suspicious features or we end up with designations quite late... The frequency of DJF, 'is it last season or the new season,' type occurrences has increased since 2000, globally ... I am unaware of any research into causality but I wonder - could the expanding HC have something to do with this ...

time sensitive ..but this looks like one of those BDs that doesn't analyze at WPC .... nice arc punching SW https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

yeah no ... we're all gonna be eaten alive.. Nah, this more like a pattern perturbation deal... I mean, there's probably a kick-back on 'some' level or another because it is happening over that canvas, but you can have this on this particular date in 1955 just as well... Not that anyone asked but man - I'll take 75/61 until Nov 15 then let the hammer fall... That said, no I don't think so Kevin...? But don't shoot me - I'm not hugely confident on this winter frankly. I "think" as the winter approaches ...we'll see greater suppression/exertion by the N-stream as the dual nature of the exaggerate easterly trade band super -imposes constructively over a La Nina...and that may actually allow one of these ENSOs to show up in the winter pattern - something that's been not as readily observable over recent anomalies over the last 20 years "as much" as they used...to, ..blah blah... Pretty sure that's a dry pattern with about even vacillation between warm and cool departures... I'm actually starting to wonder if this is a good ice-storm year ...but, I've been thinking that every autumn for the past 10 years and only one year did we seem get more icing and that 2017 ... but that icing was also the .37 accretion failed to warnings ... fast flow repetitions for the loss if one is into that sort of thing.

amazing ...as I've so rarely ever seen this - the weak side of the warm frontal arm is just dangling 2500 miles from any cyclonic node thru the our particular climate region like this... the sucker should be down in Va!

You know...actually? - if one evals the total synopsis from the eastern Pac to the western Atl and all interstitial shit going on that connects between .... you could argue if that were a month from now, it'd be three pulsed ice-storm with micro bouncers mixed with freezing drizzle in between... But, being that it is by virtue the 2nd worst time of the year behind the no-man's land April ... it's too early to bite on a cold solution .. .

At risk of being presumptuous about what motivates your thinking ... it may not be a bad way to go, Kevin. I could see one basing that on recent years. It's been a recurrent autumnal theme ... +PNAP hints or even observed ...loading Canada - and as I have opined at length in the past, since 2000 really, we've seen more than our fair share of Octobers either featuring snow, or patterns supporting snow. In fact, hundreds of percents more so than the previous 200 years of climate. In my own life, the first 30 years of it I think I smelled snow in the air twice and saw it once in October, splitting that time range between Kalamazoo Michigan and interior eastern Massachusetts. Since 2000? half the years... verified. Boom - I guess fractals can repeat and give illusions of pattern that break down but we wait for that break down to get us back to the Octobers of lore. In the meantime ... it won't be this year... nope - the snow the other day counts and we've added another October to the till when considering the regional scope - The thing is ...one cannot dispute trends, particularly if they are consistent... I don't know...maybe Will and the gang have specific numbers but it seems to my own experience this has been repeating in autumns... By virtue of only half the years since 2000 yeah...there are exceptions ... 2014-2015 ( I think ..) was a puzzlingly horribly protracted warm autumn that ended up in that wack-job February that season... but since then, we've been back at it -

I wonder if it's a combination of factors... I've read that both seasonal daylight/solar dimming triggers the evacuation of Chlor. ... which is green pigmentation, and that exposes the others ... those being xanthophylls, carotenoids and anthocyanins which are the yellow and oranges..reds... And these are awesome when they are in combination as you get some orangy-reds and saffrons hues etc. But, also cold ... I wonder what the physics of each is though - obviously, temperature and daylight have a plausible physical relationship - it tends to be 'warmer' during the day ( for example) so it is logical to assume that a seasonal hemispheric loss of insolation would lead to cooling so duh. Also, I've never read that dry antecedent growing conditions parlay to colors very well ..in fact, the opposite - but ... as far as the others, we seem to have had both. The early cool nights.. But the light part: my personal suspicion is that smoke may have been involved. I personally noted that the sugar maples here in town started flashing over to orange and yellows toward the tail end of that continental smoke phenomenon, but ... we had not yet endured any kind of nocturnal range of temperatures that were substantively low. Some species were triggered at/along my latitude here in SNE that may not have been associated to cooling. interesting...