Typhoon Tip

Study your water vapor channels over the Pac ladies and gents ... That wave space contributing to this fervor is still 42 to 48 hours from coming inland over California... It's probably okay - I mean, the days yore and having waves suddenly emerge as potency ... ( almost lol buckin' for a refit when the wave came in..) the last most obvious case of that was that 'boxing day' storm back whence - that one seemed to reemerge pretty quickly when the relay over western N/A land-based physically realized sounding sampled it - may be coincidence in that case... Anyway, I think I'm seeing more 'over-assimilation' tendencies if anything in recent years - but this is coming like straight off the oceanic basin and the only thing presently between it, california and japan is open seas

Yeah I dunno... "as is" ...if this 12z version ( and frankly ... comparing the last 4 cycles are the same ) ...anyone N of about midriff CT-RI are getting virga and dim sun despite the QPF paint -

Ha ... when I was but a child ... up until 10 minutes ago ... I used feel that 'crash' sensibility in post-storm-mortem. Lol - The problem is, big powerful systems are - quite literally ... - physically exhaustive to the atmosphere. It takes time to gather mass ... and the big ones, those big juggernaut storm events of lore ... they have a lot of mass requirement ... It's like Godzilla spinning up all that energy and than spraying that plasma at Mothra ..and then the monster visibly collapse in a weak heap to regain its strength - those artists of cinema are mimicking nature. More time also exposes any systemic evolution to ' chances for bad interference '... so in that sense there is also statistica philosophy/rareness in how to look at it.. It almost takes rare luck, too? You have to get lucky that interference allows the time to gather, first.. .then, after the storm happens and the energy is used up, etc..etc.. So there is rarity of all necessary parameters coming together in the right proportion in space and time without other shit gumming up the works. - just asking a lot of chaos to not interfere negatively... Such that the jets are perfect, the moisture content is ideal ... moon and jupiter are rising in the Seventh House ... haha... but you get it - ... Then, if the reality is getting lucky, the "atmospheric super volcano's" and the magma chamber empties. You gotta wait a few millennia for another Yellowstone eruption to recharge - the atmosphere has a fuel-expenditure budgeting requirements. It really does... There's also a kind of ( for lack of better word) transcendent aspect to this love. The models have a kind of prescience about them for these big dawgs - or perhaps more so people do. I've sensed things before the models show them. We noticed this and had group discussions in FAST when I was an undergrad, how big historical events tend to have unusually long lead vision or appeal ... almost like, while the ongoing daily modeling grind of events pop in and out of the uncertainty river over time ... some events seem to be impervious to the erosion - stones in an otherwise uncertainty stream. The 1993 March event had a 10 day residence in the guidance/MRF ensembles ... which is pretty damn spectacular considering the state of the art of modeling 30 years ago.. "Sandy" also had this long lead kind of persistence ...sometimes faded some.. but I recall "having a feeling" two weeks... no lie .. two f'n weeks out, that something like that may transpire - ...there's something about these things that is definitely "synergistic" - it's like the gestalt of the times drove Sandy to realization .. then, the models started honing it after the fact. I think 1993 was like that... So was 1992 - for me anyway... - ...and I know that 1978 was ... I'm sure there are others where there seemed to be a signal that emanated out of the ether before the numerology counted - ... interesting I later began to dread the lulls afterwords and learned that big events lose their fun if suffering an extended tax turned to angst for having had the stormgasm of satisfaction - weather is horrible wife! This got long...sorry... I just wanted to say that as a winter enthusiast... I am a much bigger fan of nickel and dime patterns... steady diets that are non- exhaustive of large scale dynamics

Just also ... those perceived limitations are based not on the future - but on observance of recent trend and verification and model behavior ...sort of blended - Again again again ...that does not mean we can't change for the better. We have to be really careful here.. When we're dealing with 'edgy' flows that ride the fence of either positive or negative interference ... it take less to tip outcomes one way or the other. Nuances become proxy in such delicate matters ... Example, ever so slight post flow ridge response in the west gives a small amount of positive interference back to the wave ejection... The Miami Rule lurks there...but probably what happens is that you get more wave potency along a narrower latitude. - needle threader... Which by the way, this is already gone from a big up the EC Miller-B to needle thread as it is...

You didn't ask me but ... your post sort of provides a nice platform for which one can rant and bitch about this stupid p.o.s. ... Which it is to me... There are three issues with it that are bugging me - 1 ... the 'synoptic canvas,' which includes three metrics in itself: orientation of r-wave construction and d(morphology); timing of individual impulses - hugely also modified by the former; speed of the flow. The bold there is key for me ... I'm waiting to see/giving the flow a chance to change - so far...I am not seeing that, but there is plenty of time for that with 6 days of lead..granted. But the speed of the flow is detriment, as is... As is also the timing ... which we have discussed the 'buck-shot' Pac in a flat flow causing wave spacing issues .. that is also not really resolving very well for me. 2 ... the heights in the deep south... GOM/Florida .. off the SE Coast are running hot and this appears to be anchored at hemispheric scales.. In other words, there's not merely a deep wave in TX building those heights from latent heat flop ... the hgts are high prior to and during these waves ejecting and gliding overtop like rocks skipping off a pond. Even if d(morphology) - delta pattern/change, were to catch up here and start effecting more amplitude/positive/wave interference ... that factor would then "emerge" as a shearing mitigator. The 00z ICON solution shows this without even having .. the entire positive vorticity field is pulled and stretched into a 'continental ribbon' - if you will ... looks like a parade streamer. That is the flow speeding up in tandem and "absorbing" the S/W wind mechanics... that's what that is... ( I call this the Miami Rule ) ... It's not an absolute neggie wave interference... The narrowing of the storm structure and the speed up over the last 4 or so cycles of models ... smacks as related to that.. but it's hard to separate that from just a having a firehose hemisphere anyway - 3 ... that high pressure up there - assuming it is more correctly handled... it is not being assessed as a BL inhibitor/magnitude there in at this range. No way... If that high is right..and this thing comes off the MA at that polarward angle and speed and size... it will hygroscopic annihilate a flat middling faster mover. All these can certainly change in 6 days ...duh, but from where I am sitting... this looked this way yesterday frankly, and seeing these models "shrink" the storm size and speed it up/progressive ... fits better for now.

ICON’s 500 mb is succumbing to the Miami rule ... that’s why it’s smearing that out.

Start a thread and grow up Jesus Christ… Either that or start a new December thread as things got over 100 pages pain in the ass

The storm for Christmas looks like the much better option actually ...

I think Will or someone has a snow chart they can throw out ?? Make me a liar I won't mind..But I do recall getting dissed by that sucker ... I think there was a meso band that was like Willamantic CT to Acton to ASH ...that was noticeably screwed

As far as speed of a storm itself - non issue for me... Of the many jaw dropping snow events I remember, two happened inside of 6 hours...and both were just shy of 20 " ... 1997, 2005... Both put down a 7.5 in one hour ! Big choking deposition rates can happen with extreme rapidity given the right circumstances -

Slowness ?? ...who's talking about slowness.... Oh see why you think that - no, I 'm not concerned with the speed of the storm motion itself... I'm concerned with the synoptic speed between Japan and England...hahaha... seriously though - it's getting the damn event to set up so ideally base on what the models are doing with a fast, inherently non-deterministic flow regime... Two different things -

I didn't forget it ... ha - had some nasty meso neggie bands that kept snow totals down...and disproportionately awarded SE zones with 40" or something... I was in Middlesex midriff region ...Acton, and we got 9" I think so pedestrian.. I was thinking that storm fails to peer with the big dawgs because it did that - But it's subjective of course -

We've talked about this 'conditioning' aspect many times in the past but yeah... Those of us that remember the scorn and spurn 1980s ... a 6-10" was a juggernaut rarity.. We had more than a few storms that decade that were billed as ... " the biggest event since 1978' " and well, I guess 10.4" was in fact the biggest event since 1978 until 1992 or thereabouts... Oh right - yeah..... I guess Cape Cod got clipped by a couple of whitecanes but ... don't get me started on 1987's debacle January that year - the famed 4th period blizzard warning that verified partly sunny in 6 F cold while the Cape was denuded of all life... Anyway, those that came into sentience since that decade which ..probably is a considerable population of this type of social mediaspheric engagement frankly .. they don't realize this handing foot deep snow events out like entitled Pez dispensing ease is unique to this ... auh... maybe it's a climate change thing - I dunno. But it's not the way anyone older than maybe 33 thinks as normal - If you're a 24 year old you only have donut stuffing machine impressions with just a few bad winters... And that's what's interesting about the winters in the since 2000 era: two of the worst winters I ever recall happened since 2000, ...in an era where I've 300 % more snow than I remember spanning decades prior -

...I also just noticed a subtle backing off of the GEFs PNA decline ...and in fact, it tries to swell now in concerted fashion among the members later next week.. It could be that we are seeing an over correction in the PNA go back a bit more positive ... That's code for gee - can we maybe get a western ridge to pop just a little more as that thing gets ejected? Hey, what's that analog site - I'm wondering if 2003's on the list ...certainly looks on the surface like it should be ( pun intended )

What ...? oh ..heh. 'shoulda kept with the ball bustin' - you were winning

Interesting ... I guess that storm did actually get down to respectively ... Hm... I swear I remembered that being a weaker - it may have also been a situation where the damage was already done - so that this was upon exit and not really doing as much as that looks suggest - I remember something peculiar about that storm as being superb snow generation relative to its look either way.. But, this is the 7th and 12z

oh I don't problem with the event... it's getting that set up - I know your busin' balls it's all good... But the flow is too damn flat and fast for me to trust... I'd almost be surprised if this didn't turn into something else... Maybe more ? hey - how about that... who with me!

yeah... I was just getting the numbers out there word! I think I was 22 but not sure... 18 anyway -

Here you go on the 6th, 12z ... all that trouble from a 1004 mb low ... 15 to 20 " worth - don't have to have very big intense bombs all the time... Sometimes you max out one or two metrical values and viola

So... here comes the boom ... surface high N and low Miller Bs up underneath - or gets ready to at 12z here on the 5th... Note it is not an overwhelmingly powerful system... but, that high up there was f'g'n cold man! ...and this thing rollin' underneath just absolutely was flawless DGZ glide

Ah ...gotcha -... yeah... truth be told, all these storms have some sort of analogical relationship... I mean, cold north warm south moisture involved ne wind ... they all got that going for them... lol

That's one of my most favorite transition weeks of all time... Here was a infamous traffic snarl windex event that heralded in the cold that set stage for the system later that week... That inocuos trough and green smudging there was the most afflicting 1/2 to 1.5" of snow of all times. I-95 was a parking lot that morning and it took people like 4 hours get to the office. Temp went like 37 to 25 in white outs squalls like immediately, and the roads flashed

I'm the one who said that to him back then by the way... Out of the mouths of babes and onto television -- Yeah, that storied storm - you're talking about December 2003, 5-7th ?? - That had a bitter cold air mass packed into eastern Ontario. I remember the cold exerion down the coastal plain/damming and burier jet ... just insane. Enough that it sandwiched the CF all the way down in, ..well, almost to Sandwich.. Exaggerating to make the point here but it was like 42 F at the Sag. bridge and 22F more 5 miles west of there - something like that. I know it was 19 F up where I was living in Winchester Mass at the time ...which is actually S of Woburn down I-93 ... I think we got 18" of pow pow out of that and managed a bare ground x-mass - haha

Once there ... sure! I mean I'm not trying to be a deb downer ...and I realize I'm hammering this point to no avail ( lol ...) but I just don't like the shallow N-S coordinate while raging 100 to 150 kt mid tropospheric jet and flat PNAP ... transporting open longitudinal waves off the Pacific like that whole lead up is. It may happen...okay. Fine... and I agree, as is? That's a fine tasty look. I tell you what *if* *if* *if* that pattern morphs successfully into that configuration ( for the folk reader - ) you wouldn't need a hugely powerful system to create a prolific snow result. The kinematic structure is quite superb in that set up ... that's a 'snow machine' look .. perfect 700 mb easterly anomaly running up over a steadily backing wind with depth... NNE over interior .. very cold column... wow - I just don't like how we get there... Hope it does though - this is some seriously boring weather otherwise, huh

Heh ... at least it keeps the wave open at D7 passing the the wind max thru the upper MA and S of NE ... That's a reasonable good fit - problem is...getting to that point first. That D4 --> 5 ...well, assessing what's coming off the Pacific ...let's get that ironed out first. I mean this thing comes from well west of California to S of NS and the wind max's trajectory doesn't really vary in the N-S plain by more than 1K naut miles... pretty cool actually - like a rifle wave ...