Typhoon Tip

It's not "over" either... Look, both sides of the question seem to knee jerk to extremes every ensemble cycle ... It may take a couple of week .. maybe even three - The question's really related to how spring will begin to arrive, subsequent early speculation about what form it takes - then, deeper into March. At which point.. it should be f'n over. I think there's been some local-decadal scaled conditioning to 'expect' winter to protract into the spring, but March is fickle.. and 1/3 of them have been above normal with embedded obscene heat since 2000 anyway. It just that over the last 5 years, that has been rarefied. It's really more like a signal that gets us a better chance for one of those 1/3 warm years ... in March Fairly? - it probably shouldn't have really be brought up in this thread - you can thank yours truly ... Pretty sure I posted about this last week when the GEFs handling of the AO clearly and concertedly, every member included, tightly aligned along a +5 SD recovery ... It's just that the ballast of that recovery starts ..now ( really ..) through March 1. We don't really do threads that are seasonal-based. If anything, last night's CPC as anyone can go see ...is even more recovered - with unusual concerted agreement. That looks like a warm spring hemisphere in that particular teleconnector out there into the first week of March. It's funny ... while that is happening the operational GFS looks like it cannot actually be a part of its own ensemble system - like it stands apart as an distinctly different physically scaffold'ed model design! It could not be more diametrically opposed. If it were more in disagreement out there toward week two, it would be modeling on a different planet altogether. I don't think the recent trend and current "panache" of its board of ensemble members like the direction of the chair in this case.. and proooobably are gunning for the latter's retirement for being too old and out-moded, and not seeing the direction of the company. ...Ha, I like that metaphor. It's like "Meet Joe Black," only the Reeper in this case is the combination the La Nina and the HC expansion working together, under and the inevitable return of the sun. So with every member having recovered all the way to +1 or 1.5 SD, and the PNA slipping negative... and the NAO neutral positive ... There is no combination of those larger mass field indicators that really suggests anything resembling the GFS hyperbole winter signal will take place... It attempts a monster -EPO, cold dump... setting up Canada to justify what it does every year at this time... pump out model runs that end summer until next Thanks Giving! But I'm being hypobolic The GFS does this every year around this time ... It's native physics some how, some way ...negates seasonal change. I think it is just uniquely qualified not to detect spring because the model also rages in a N/stream hard-on, most of the time anyway. It runs some -6 to -10 dm colder heights N of the ambient polar jet compared to all over guidance, at all times, beginning beyond D4 .. 5, and growing more discernible the deeper on in range. Since this modulation appears to maybe need a threshold out there...week two, its likely to see it last ..and then argue when it starts to see, too. There could be a storm with blue bomb/snow potential Feb 23-25th. The GGEM/Euro/ GFS ...and every GEF members carries a trough through eastern N/A during that time, and there is still substantive cold N of the 40 within grabbing distance ...

This just feels like a NAM too far northwest scenario to me and as it comes back Southeast in future guidance it may shave a little of the QPF off a typical buyers beware corrections for that model for things that are relaying inside of 60 hours. i’m also a little bit surprised honestly that the 500 mill bar looks a little stronger after keeping with the seasonal tempo going weaker ... this is the first one I recall that’s going the other way getting closer - interesting

Yes! I posted about that earlier today that it’s usually not much higher than 80% even in best case scenario do micro physical phenomenon ...kinetic energy upon impact and splashing you just can’t freeze at all then if the temperature is getting up closer to freezing you’re definitely not gonna be able to do it as quickly and then I’ll take even more away. I think in 2008 Worcester County had an average 3 to 3 1/2 inches of rain and what did they get out of that accr 1.3 1.6?

Almost like the system is trying to rush the backing off of the arctic isolation slated to begin in earnest over the next two weeks

I think it’s too far northwest too done that all year long it’s been doing it for 25 years

What’s strange about that… I’ve lived in this part of the country for 35 years and I dont recall that kind of confidence interval for ice in Northern New Jersey and Fitchburg mass at the same time that is a strange scenario

on a separate note... i don't think I've ever seen that much of Texas under a Warn headline - wow

Done when? what time do you think folks are extrapolating for - ... tonight? Tomorrow? ... Mid March in global f'ing warming with a La Nina spring climo - yeah... winters over

NAM NW bias beyond 60 hours

prolly not gonna verify as is ... obviously, but the D10 Euro's looking rather spring -like already. I still suspect this is a different spring complexion comparing recent years -.. I figure it for a move over in March... thinking the 2nd week ? But it makes sense to see early extended ranges start nudging the suggestion along like this - ...if we were waiting until March 3 to get a solution on D10 that looks like that 850 mb thermal layout...I'd be pushing things out to the end of the month. But this gives it time to fail ... come again...fail...then start to stick - Also, the AO still recovers to neutral or modestly positive SD out there beyond the 20th... and with the PNA trying to collapse ... I don't know where sustaining winter into March can really come from with this hemisphere of La Nina + HC being free to expand heights over the Americas ..They want that, then dipping the PNA may synergistically realize a bigger proportional response to the base-line statistical suggestion - That means weakly -PNA = higher heights thaan one might think. This isn't a March thread though... I still suspect February is good for at least 10 days and negotiable for another week after that ...

Boy ... I betcha he feels 'inadequate' standing next to that -

For some narrow band this could be one of those events where neither icing nor snow makes the Warning cut ...but the impact proves those distinctions irrelevant -

Can someone get on the horn with nws and let 'em know their websites hosed for afd's ? ah, they were probably updating -

That doesn't seem right - I mean, that nearly matches this thing's fast movement and oh is that's cumulative for 85 hours then? I'm asking because that requires a lot - duh... But we don't really get proficiency in accretion that utilizes all the QPF. I think it's like 80% ... I almost think of it like that weird riddle-question about should you run through the rain, or walk, because if you walk, you spend more time in the rain, but if you run, ...you collect the rain drops you would have missed if you were not there, so which is better... ( you know? that riddle-question that makes you want to punch the person's face?) With icing, ... light fall rates in very cold temperatures end up light pingers...but...bump it closer to say 29.5 .. and the proficiency at accretion is very high ratio ... maybe better than 80 by some. But step up the intensity of fall rates and splashing and other micro-physical effects, like kinetic energy of impact and increasing LH of phase change.. Either way, it's not like if 1" of liq equiv falls, there's 1" liq eguiv of riming - But I guess if that 72 to 84 hours worth - Thing in, Pivotals attending QPF doesn't show it appreciably collecting prior to 06Z Tuesday across the region... so, that seems to suggest this product assuming whatever falls accretes - I wonder if this is flat rate -

I like how the Bend of Texas to STL is like a 16 hour drive in constant Warning ...

.... man ( lol ) ... it's really going to be something of a rather remarkable achievement by the atmosphere ... when/where collectively, as the offices across the continent necessarily created this dizzying array of higher impact headline tapestry ... ...we here in New England only set by and watch that same atmosphere finagle a way to f' it all up for us by the time all that bottle necks into the NE. By the way, that's interesting seeing Warnings down to the Seattle shore -

This is what this looked like to me yesterday as the course of more likely outcome - whether that's the course of least regretted gamble ..heh... not sure - but just apriori existentialism having lived through this climate for decades, combined with actual theoretical Meteorology ... not surprising this run re-emerged after the 00z may or may not have attempted futilely to refute the former two supplying "objective wisdom" ... It could still bust more IP and knock that back... We've seen 2,000 meter tall sleet columns before ..albeit rare. But cold temperatures win in the low levels...I'm personally > 75% confident of that given everything, regardless. Oh, but, relative to what really falls, I'd maybe take 2-3" off the top of that along the southern half of the snow, and maybe actually add 2" in the N half. The southern aspect will be 11:1 snow with IP hammers ... and that'll keep it in the 6" .. 7.5" range ( I think..) while this cold, likely being under sold ... will beef up ratios closer to 15:1 so those 10:1 numbers could actually be low N of ~ Pike. Something like that with IP/ZR in CT/RI seems to fit climo too for this sort of smearing event/isentropic ... but the ice shouldn't be undersold where it occurs, either; that looks like a narrow axis of efficient accretion with this beautiful supply of undercutting tuck winds/ageo drain set up.

Yeah... I mean... this is kind of a mesmerizing 500 mb look, run-to-run, and distracting. Hasn't even gotten into those age-old, tried-and-true local studies crap with burrier/"tuck" jets this, and index-finger-rule model error for BL resistance that. Those super uber detailed popsicle head ache aspects that always win ( btw ..) that simply will bust ZR lines farther S... Whether that means more IP depends more on mid level stuff. This has a protracted front side grits, freezing dz, flurries and light snow... from there, one of two options in my mind: it's either going back more snow in guidance, or a mostly ice verifies. This is not raining... that's total bullshit bad modeling - straw man..just sayn'

The Euro might be giving a faux impression of amplitude on the 00z run .. if one is using the thermal fields, ptype as impression guide. The 500 mb was in fact slightly weaker in the vorticity layout by the time 84 hour is then relayed onward as whatever that 'smearing' that's left is, that is nearing 75 W, wends its way along a slightly flatter trajectory. Seemingly trivial that does connote slightly weaker deep layer mechanics - but that weak mechanics alters the trajectory of the stream lines exposing where advects that gunk through New England by 90 hours... more ENE as opposed to NE in the previous cycle. That, believe it or not, has a counter-intuitive way of being a warm solution. By virtue that trajectory being a little bit closer to the actual lower b-c axis, - that still more proficiently materialize the 850 to 700 mb restoring jets blowing up the polar side of the elevated frontal slope.. causing a net warming in that layer. I've seen guidance et al do this in the past.. Until the 500 mb comes sufficiently E to really ( finally ) commit to coastal ..effectively cutting off those elevate warm intrusion layers... and then the scenario at hand flips into a cyclone model proper..blah blah. This ain't there yet ... but.. If this comes a little bit more SE at 500 mb on the next cycle, this may flash back to a snowier solution NW zones ... and we'll see where it goes by late tomorrow's runs. I'm not sold on IP/ZR to RUT VT in this ... I've been seeing tendencies in the models, ..across all of them, to tone down amplitude relaying from outer Mid range to inner time frames...and given the SPV layout up N and confluence and all that jazz.. .it seems the correction vector is not really pointed at a BTV 500 mb wind max transit... Maybe? sure - but the air moves like water and tends to find the pathways of lesser resistance. The other aspect that stood out to me in the overnight runs is that the EPS signal Scott pointed out a couple of days ago has been occurring in increasing frequency across the bevy over various guidance, which is to close the gap between the "new" Monday isentropic initiation and wave. We probably could end up with 2-4" of snow NW ranging to substantive pirouetting SUV glare icer SE and probably we've been ignoring. The result in the GFS is almost no lull now at all... This could be a 30 our ..36 hour ordeal by virtue of the fact that the axis of overrunning and subsequent book-end "main wave" are running up parallel and is thus is a long corridor between 12z Monday entrance ( SW- --> NE) and exit some time on Wed... OT: The late weekend system may not go west... I like the Euro's depiction because in the models that are trying to take the surface "quasi" primary into eastern OH and vestigially into western NY, whilst only vague commitment to secondary ... all that? They are doing it while the 500 mb is dramatically in a decay sequencing of it's mechanics and the entire trough axis is zipping shut into a shear axis by the time it actually all collocates with the Eastern Seaboard early Saturday ...that means the support is attenuating rather discerned and it seems these guidance may correct toward flatter solutions as that time nears and cleaner deep layer integration emerges in future cycles... that's my early assessment on that end of the week ... There may yet be another event around the 23rd. I mentioned a week ago I thought February is a cold wash ...still believe that... I do suspect however we may ( more at seasonally ...) break harder than recent year's March's toward a spring ...given to festering La Nina + HC planetary footprint lying in wait... albeit merely presently suppressed by a dominating polar signal ... Once that appears to neutralize ... leaves mid latitudes nakedly vulnerable to the former - ... supposition for now. But fairly certain GFS won't be the guidance species that is very well adaptive to the vision given that it thinks there is only once jet gradient between here and Alpha Centaur and that's the N stream ...even in July ..

The 18z GFS doing everything it can to meld a Monday overrunning start up/lead wave in with this to make it a day and a halfer

18z ICON hints at a cyclone split like back in Dec. ... steins CT out of half of it heh

LOL... the secret to a good troll post: it has to not already have been covered -

Oh ...I think you're meaning Tuesday and Friday combined - Kev? as in, Tues = .5" Frid = .5" Together = 1.0" ... Still doubteful for me. .5" pushes the tin in this case because to get .5" it'll have to come on in heavier dose due to limited time of each event - they are movin' and truckin' man. And, a goodly percentage of that ( save for some really isolated pocket perhaps ... not enough to substantiate a headline) is likely bouncing or snow. ... I think a median glaze amount is ... .25 to .33" somewhere's in there... But, this is all us wasting time in minutia over a situation that could easily tick more snow... I really don't think this can come NW of where it is now frankly - no way. Because although the SPV frag is trying to phase more in some guidance, it is also moving too much in the x- ( E ) direction on whole, so it's as much a suppressor on the track.

Yeah.. no one asked but I'm pretty sure that was a neggie EPO, "neg-like" PNA...and a positive NAO year... actually very much so in the latter. 1994 In fact, I recall up at the lab ( UML ) Dr Colby doing a FAST 1 demo about the vortex over E Canada ..becoming so extraordinarily large and dominating it more than less backed SW and enhanced confluence as a semi-perm feature over lower Ontario. It was in a way a pattern so f-ed up wrong, it went all the way around and ended up good - hahaha Anyway, then these flat Pac waves were seeding the wedged cold every 48 hours ... That was an awesome stretch - in my top 5 favorite 'stretches' ... That period contained the weird OES IP storm.. In Acton, we had 1/4 mi visibility ... 1/2 of which was OES snow attributed, with beautiful aggregate clusters falling whilst some other percentage of the visibility was mitigated by insane sleet. It was like 17 F too - I was a kid then ... I was pissed thinking it was personal - like... " if this sleet were only snow too..." - how you get into that head game. But looking back, never saw that before or since ...it's got its import by rareness alone. Pretty amazing to later see a warm layer at like 700 mb with the soundings slopes that vastly left that deep in the atmosphere.

Something like that ... sure. Plus, we have IP and snow and pixie dust and all kinds of weird shit that has to be figured out - ... big ice. ha - There should be a "big pain in the ass" type of storm characteristic established in the on-line social dystopiasphere - who's with me!