Typhoon Tip

Overall though .. the complexion of the hemisphere has changed over the last couple of days - last night's oper. Euro doesn't carry the previous rhea membership at all the same. That well advertised mid month +PNA/-NAO is still there but there are straying GEF members and the mean is less, too. Plus, seeing the EPS tending to normalize the neggie nodes in the flow, and the operational Euro ...some days even looked good out there. It's just not carrying the same panache in misery shits that it looked like we could be dealing with when all this was on the charts and indices a week ago. So, perhaps the seasonal forcing is going to win this race after all - the Euro does look like it's being forced to wash out gradients ... we'll see. The operational GFS, as usual... takes the first 4-6 days of its run to scrub out that weird warmth it can't figure out what to do with, such that it can get the hemisphere back to November by D10 ... where NCEP thinks it should always be for some f'up reason.

Everyone's favorite! Nasty powerful BD front slams through the region during the evening hours tonight - ... 'specially Kevin. He's all psyched. But, at least we will have the flag wobbling laze faire balm of today. Probably makes 77 to push closer to historical numbers around climo sites - what are those btw? I dunno, seems we've had some weird hot weeks in Aprils in the last 20 years - despite them overall still averaging the 'cruelest month'. It may be some of these days are out of reach. But tomorrow ? Whole 'nother world behind the front. I wonder if it strata bum packs down the coastal plain clear to NJ if the NAM is right -

There'll probably be a bit of as surge in vax counts.. post ~ April 15 at a national scale. I think I've read or heard chirps that states overall are opening up to the main bell curve mass of population - or the remainder after the vulnerable ( comorbs) and AARP+ age groups have had their chance to get poked. But ... there's some recent idea whether a lot in the 16 to 55 age range will even opt to get the vaccine? The news media machine et al could be manufacturing a 'crisis there, that isn't as significant though ... again ..and again, and again and again ...because they need lies to maintain operating cost and pad the sociopathic wallots of their Industrial captains.. But, somewhere in their 'social engineering' tactics there are kernels of truth ... We just don't know if there's really that many %, in theatage range, that are going to hide from immunization of this .. ? I bet we see a surge in vax counts though.

I realize you guys are just on-going through colloquy on the matter to pass time ...nor asking for a rant. But duh? Isn't this ( bold above) exactly what the "MSM," ( did you mean MSN ? ) ... CNN's, Fox News, CNBC, FB ( before they "supposedly" grew a conscience) wanted all along? ( right now you're going, 'yeah yeah, we know.' But I still wanna rant lol -) The day the "Industrialized media conglomerate" figured out how to convert thumb swiping these filthy germ glazed portable devises ( or mouse clicks ) into money, we were doomed. We haven't seen or heard veracity hailing from the Code of Journalistic Integrity since. That all begin technically when the Internet began to slope humanity. But now? There so much deception that ( ironically ..) it is like a virus that fools the immune system such that the immune system can't see through the mimicry. The target audience, 7.5 billion 'photo-electrically addicted cattle' of the world, most probably don't even knows what that code is any more. But Journalism Ethics and Standards was supposed to ensure no bias, hence, trusted information. I even catch NPR 'spinning' ... but CNN and FOX are just unreadable. Here's the scary part: more than 50% of the biomass that takes in their "designs on reality", believe it out of device box. They are like little birdbrains sitting in a nest with their beaks open pointing at the sky at all times, waiting for CNN and FOX news to swoop in and drop another "kernel worm" of bird food information. (Gee, how do you really feel lol) It's not all that hopeless. I mean, though there is a lot of distrust, that's really a sign that objectivity must exist out there in more and less measure. When was the last time anyone's "trusted" shit? In fact, 'social trust' is a key detrimental factor that is tearing at civility; we live in a very schismatic time... with fringe ideologies using the web to formulate these cultural islets - and that's whole 'nother digression at sociological scales that starts in the imagination and end in anarchy. We need consequences for bad decisions. Modern convenience ... wipes the ass of bad decisions - ultimately, enables people's break from consensus norms that always were based in common sense, if not instincts, ...certainly heritage method and culture of ways and means that actually worked toward proactive survival. All that is missing in the butt-wipe convenience of modernity, that affords people the ability for "recreational outrage," ...and these media sources want you outraged, ... so you keep glued in. Turning the Pandemic's interminable ability for fear and infinitum of ways in which a prone civility can be jolted into a profit cow, HA! - it really all came along at the perfect time in history. ... decades of wicking the system to the point of near mass delusion, and most per capita addicted, then the Pandemic happens ... Oh, its real! I am meandering a little in my point here, but this is what drives paranoid conspiracy theorists into orbit ...where is that profit going? We probably really just went through the greatest transfer of wealth from one sector of western economics to another, in history. And those that received it ... they really should give it all back- or they are greedy with no redeeming value at all. 0. And though there isn't a hard conspiracy ... it's like the Bobby Axelrod affect - you really wanna keep that in entertainment and not have those types really pulling the levers of society.

I feel there’s some wish casting ... sort of going on.

Yeah I mean after all this .. there’s a reel palpable stench of not taking this seriously ... I wonder if a kind of culture war between those sort of incredulous and absent of urgency and feel an imposition vs those not getting sick lol

I agree with Brian ... And it's all a problem with our 'people,' the people of Americana, too - when we're told an inch we expect a mile. That 'narrative switching' ? That happens quite a lot, while the inch is becoming the mile in the "congress of public opinion" I swear ... at some point, some thing will come along - if perhaps needs to - that is going to forcibly humiliate society down to reality. You know what it reminds me of ... Farside cartoon from back in the day. Ole Larson at his best... he depicts to tattered ragged desiccated desert wonders that happen upon a brackish pool under a single palm, an oasis of life giving drink awaits ... and as they're kneeling down to sip ...the one turns to the other in hesitation and says, "what? - no cups!" It's not funny when the end of days is upon us, and 99% of people hesitate expecting a cup of miles.

Slow moving atmosphere ftw - we cash in on nape kisses today and tomorrow. We shits Sunday though ... and I'm not ready to toss a mid month cold enterprising event - in whatever form that ultimately insults. We are being extraordinarily blessed to have had this many nape or balm days, either kind, during any month that begins with "ape" and ends with "ril" But I think ... 20th give or take, we put it behind.

Maybe given time ..aspects about this pathogenic agent will be learned, that make it more manageable as a 'shut in' ailment - rather than admitting everyone to a hospital bed as an earlier recourse ? I know personally four people that have had this C-19. Two said it was 3 days of couch time amid a total of 6 days of general malaise. One had a head cold and lost taste and smell for three weeks but said he was out doing stuff in the yard straight through it. The other guy was worse... he hadn't eaten much in 10 days, and carried on with intermittent fever episodes during... having trouble even drinking water. Dehydrated... lost 20 lbs. But then he was able to start drinking and eating, and the fever went away - he just had a lingering cough that would not resolve fast enough for his wife not to freak out. Heh...so he goes into a med stop, and the doctor there had him on a banana bag IV for a 3-day gurney stint within 45 minutes of walking into the waiting room. He swears it was over precautionary and that he was on the mend. I mean...does it strike you as interesting how the early claims for comorbidity seemed to be adjoined by a host of other unknowns? None of these four gents had co-morbid anything as far as they knew. Four cases, pretty much unique in each case. It's not like other pandemic agents of past horror, where like everyone has a cytokine storm this, or hemorrhagic fever and bleeding that... I've heard of few cases where some J. Q. was a marathon runnin,' organic eaten super hero... ends up intubated in ICU, with last rites murmuring off to the side only interrupted by the whimpering of wife's immeasurable pain... Guy miraculously comes back against the odds but point being, it seems evident that there's something else peculiar about who/how ..what is needed at the individual level for this thing to be very dangerous. Genetics...blood type.. pissed off god ..who knows. And it's probably more like comorbidity only plays a role ... but just plays role. Maybe if science/medicine can figure out that who/how and what, this becomes more like a stay-in ordeal because they'll know if you have the X-factor that puts you in deep shit. Also ... I was reading that many of these things tend to evolve toward a less injurious strain given time. It makes sense biologically ... it doesn't make a lot a sense for an illness to ultimately kill the host before it has a chance to transmit its descendancy

Kids are very adaptive though - at least they/we have that going for them. Not in all cases, but by and large, ...it's why they can roll down a hill on purpose for fun, when/if an adult twice their age engages in that act it is usually unintended and may earn 'em a stint in traction. Lol, ..but in mentality they have neural plasticity until 21 years of age ( ~ ) that embarrasses the best of adult learners. You got to go back and put yourself into a mindful perspective, in its proper place in history. Perhaps all things being equal - or not .. hate that f'n saying - if we are to add in adaptability on one side of the scale ( to off set if not ameliorate damages perceived for these recent 18 months of disruption), and then on the other side of the scale ... add unknown death toll Ah. It may be worth it to consider a broader weighting on either side of balancing when 'proper' historical perspective is considered. Society was charged with finding the best course of action ...maybe they didn't. Maybe not as bad? But keep in mind, when this first came on the seen ... I used the expression recently "soft apocalypse" and I think in retrospect, those proportions actually fit for what was going on in the earlier era of this. No, this was not a Dino-ending comet streak across the heavens, nor a CRB from deep field astronomy so powerful that in a flash, it wipes out all biota living within a mile of the planetary lithosphere ... It wasn't something of a truly 'hard' or immediate population correction event. It really was a slow moving unknown mortality wave - That's scary for one - even for 'adulting.' But all bravery conferred, it puts any decision making apparatus of any era ..regardless of political this or competency that, under extreme duress. Stop the mortality first. December 2019 at the National Security research Division of the Pentagon ... that may have been the top priority - or what/where/whomever was panicking - ... in doing so, probably was a recourse that was paramount at the time. "Once we get ahead of this thing....," then we'll dust off and deal with the slower moving casualties later. We are here now, later. And questioning that judgement - ...I mean I'm not trying argumentative, but it does carry a soupcon op for 'hind-sight is 20-20' I guess this was going to be a learning curve for humanity. It's the first time in human history that every nation of the espoused "developed world," actually got on the same page and agreed upon a common vision and philosophy in a unilaterally globular directive that was not for the purpose conflict ( World War )...its really a watershed moment in our evolution. It is...probably something that will take scholars and historians a few decades or whatever to formally declare ... but, in using technology the way we have as a total unity, it really is one of the greatest achievements of human kind. I think a generation of children who are adaptable ( in general...there are always exceptions), will probably be alright in the long run - we hope. Maybe all this is has to be part of that trajectory -

Isn't the 'herd immunity' theoretical relative to circumstances of virulency anyway - ? I mean it seems intuitive to me.. herd immunity should depend on the nature of the offending contagion. I mean, what if an infectious agent can say, ... stay in an environment on flat surfaces much longer and remain viable ...or in he air, and travel in the jet stream ( speaking of SciFi...) and strike the Tibetan Plateau goat herders when the origin was the Navajo Nation Reservation ... what's herd immunity, then? If this new variant is more aggressive and able to transmit, that should move the herd immunity requirement to a higher percentage.

Yeah ...good point .. I haven't been breaking down to the state level in my daily hand-throwing frustration over numbers look up efforts. It's a reach for the iPhone moment I do on the couch while the Bruins are - usually - coughing up a late lead to lose at least excuse imaginable. Although they held out on the Caps last night and that was huge win, albeit a bit of a anomaly in how they did it. good sign.. But, also don't really follow the projections/ .. modeling either. So basically everything I wrote was just morning coffee cranks - haha

Actually it's my fault that 'hot take' sounded myopic like that - What I left out, I should have discretely stated: the area of SciFi I'm describing is a sort of sub-genre at the "formulaic" end, story telling aspects at the ah ha moments of discovery. That's the fun meat for formulaic SciFi - where the protagonist zygotes the course around a truly novel idea - the 'noveling' itself, is getting crowded by fact... because discoveries already having been made. 'Sides, hyperbole or not I wouldn't suggest shutting it down - 'everyone go home and just exist'.. haha.. funny tho. But, writing cyberpunk sub-genre ...agreed, there's virtually an ad infinitum of cause-and-effect consequences yet untapped, when it comes to imagining positive and negatives in how science both affects and effect people, at both the individual ...but then integrating whole groups...communities, worlds and realms. That's not really the space I was thinking when I wrote of difficulties imagining new discoveries.

Oh man.. it's utopia out there... 64 here and actually, despite making the observation that late yesterday a BD of sorts 'smeared' through ... we are actually now 1 deg ahead of yesterday ...Insane bounce back ... Calm, and totally clear solar sear. The low yesterday was 40 to 44 within 10 mi of Ayer at multiple home stations - so likely valid by shear weight of sample size. Las night was 35-37 so... 8 or 9 colder. Despite the lower launch pad, we are actually warmer/ing if not by scalar value, definitely in rate of recovery. Yesterday we topped at 70 or 71 just before the scouring of CU demarcated the west penetration of Labrador rhea... It looks like the wind field in the various guidance sans any such BD or s-breeze penetration repeat, so ...we may put back the 3 or 4 degrees on the highs today that were stolen from us yesterday. ...My god, it's a Asperger's paradise of analytics out there - It all goes away next week... Man, that GGEM 00z solution drives a 959 mb low just too far E around the 17th-19th of the month. But, just the overall tenor of the runs, don't really appeal like today ( and probably tomorrow...) will happen again for a minimum of 10 days. But like we said last night -it's been out there for a long time, and at least the first week's worth of it has failed to verify - it does lend some notion that it may all be over-selling its self in the guidance some. Heh,... kind of like the antithesis of that shit summer that chases a ridge in the guidance that never seems to get inside of D7... then, on September 15th...it finally does warm up but of course the sun is setting on the season so it's a gip -job for heat enthusiasts...

Lol, .... not speaking for the man, but it's pretty clear to me he's talking about a sociological time-bomb ...

Yesterday was a 20K case load set back on progress... I check the numbers, ..daily, for morbid - ... 81 K ... which was about a 33% ( ~ ) increase over the previous 7-day average NC/day, was a bit of exhale ugh'er I'm wondering if this B.1.1. variant ... espoused by the incendiary headline tactical fear mongering of CNN's spin machine as being substantially more virulent for both harm, and contagious ability, is the cause for that tide of cases .. may need a few days to make that determination - ... I "think" the vaccine is proven still effective against it - so.. it's like bum timing in the war against this Pandemia. It would have been sooo much more convenient if this new more virulent strain waited to surface when there was say ... 35 or 50% immunization canvas, because then it would just be CNN headlines and not possibly a deadly race.

Are you talking about me ... or the previous poster - I'm not making any sort of distinction predicated upon any bias or 'cynicism' with what I posted - I'm merely stating an observation ... The science and discovery are leaving creative writers behind. That's just one example. For muse: Robots ...like "Gort" from the classic, "The Day The Earth Stood Still" ... were very primitive, but paved where the next 20 ...30 years of fiction would emerge. By the 1980s the Cyberpunk sub genre of SciFi was born ...Writers got free reign, honing the 'visionary science space' right down to the sophistication of cyborgs - seemingly to the point of real theory and not just the fiction of "Robocop" - big budget obsurdity, but plausible enough to suspend disbelief to the target bourgeoisie. Soon after, "Data," depicted by the uncannily on-point performances of Brent Spiner, seemed to reign it in with a statement, 'That's pretty fun, but this is 'who' the idealized model would likely become.' Now ..out here in the real world, M.I.T. engineers in robotics have recently demoed dancing 'bots to actual syncopated rhythm, ...inexorably leading to Neurolink or those like it. Which intuitively, if one wants to make an artificial human brain utilizing the human brain as the natural model ... they are going to have to successfully engineer something like those "neurologically linked interface-able" systems at some point or another along the inCREdibly sagacious forethought in whether we we truly want or need our species taken over by self-aware A.I. What if that spontaneously manifested 'self preservation' as an unintended, emerged consequence of complex synergistic operating system...? That is the key - consciousness is created 'synergistically' as a result, a gestalt, of quantum scaled interacting wave dynamics (energy); and so nested intrinsically in there is thus, the "uncertainty principle" - ... So ... hate to say the trope but it is unfortunately, apropos - we are fiddling with aspects that took a billion years of evolution to create, and it is a realm where the more of it that gets exposed, only engenders more questions of its ultimate power - So, for someone that is a sci fi writer ... what can one contrive that isn't already been done? Lol.. interesting - but the purpose of sci fi is to extrapolate plausibility based upon actual science - usually the application of the latter. Well it challenges the imagination if science fact is winning the race to those destinations.

It's becoming increasingly more difficult to contrive science fiction in a world where science fact competes with, and in so many ways, outpaces the imagination.

How'd you get in so early ?

Interesting ... if perhaps otherwise tedious observation about the last 24 hours. I think a weak or nondescript/ .. defused backdoor front actually came through unnoticed yesterday, disguised as a breeze boundary. It's presently 7 to 9 F colder than this same time yesterday across eastern/NE Mass ... And late yesterday afternoon one could see a defined boundary scouring CU out, as it snaked west through the afternoon. And the late day hi res vis imagery showed low cloud and fog shrouds moving due west while the outer fringes of the old ocean vortex higher levels were still rotating S. So, there was an undercut flow that diverged/diffluently peeled west and pulled inland in the afternoon. Probably a hybrid between breeze/Labrador rhea, also with weakly defined BD. I wonder if means the high temps cap short of forecasts today ...or, does this mix out for large diurnal

“Worrisome” - in what way exactly ? Technically ... it has been colder - there’s an aspect of relativity in play. Because without the blocking we might’ve been 80. Nina springs are typically warmer than normal… And they don’t actually, typically feature blocking like this - It’s a bit of an anomaly, relative (also) to that climatology The blocking is most likely related to a sudden abandoning of the higher velocity jet anomalies that we had all winter long and when that suddenly relaxed we pass through an interval where residual latent heat delivery to upper latitude will cause blocking nores to flare off. This happened similarly across the last five Springs ... last year claimed much of May with snow flurries at times. It really seems to me like we are super imposing a blocking episode over the top of the warmer than normal hemisphere (mid latitude’s ) and this is kind of what we get… We’ve had North flow here for the past four days not much to show for it except seasonality give or take…

Greed is ultimately insolvent ... That’s the real issue.

Most leases can be negotiated tho, and it is in the better interest of the landlord or rep for property share holders to do so because legally all “binding” agreements are based upon a presumption of liquidity ... If the latter freezes the landlord has two options .. they can either impose a fee and never get it because of frozen assets, or they can work with the client to reduce cost measure to try and work it out- a pandemic, forcing companies to close doors and reduce on site staffing by mandate outside of their control certainly qualifies as special circumstances. I mean you’re talking about a “soft apocalypse”

I think part of the problem is that we have been looking at gloom and doom and dour synoptic layouts on these operational models in the deep mid/extended range for three weeks and none of it has actually materialized yet or verified very well. But as far as the GEFs are concerned… The Tele con layout for the cold stormy pattern wasn’t really supposed to be here until the mid part of the month - granted that’s getting closer The Euro trying to get cute about it now so we’ll see. Seems like it’s a bit of a race between seasonal change and the last hurrah of winter with that index layout-which one is going to win mid month 50-50 chance