Typhoon Tip

oops, wrong thread - moved...

you know ... from orbit - The storm enthusiasts should almost rather not wish the time away between these events - not that anyone is.. just sayn'. You went through this horribly long stretch... to the brink of sanity ... day after day after day of being stuck in a Pandemic internment camp, and having nothing to turn to - an active pattern would have been a poetically deserving recourse - but no... Folks should really appreciate the totality of this era ... which began, 2 weeks ago really and crescendos early to late next week - ... there's still some modest debate on-going about the 14th... bit more yet needed re the 16th ... All the while, that thing at the end of next week is less than 7 days away ... It really could get an early thread going for it... Perhaps as reward for your enduring perseverance ...this nickle -dime pattern- whether one of these ends up a headliner or not .. - is at scenario over the next week where no model cycle is boring. It may not offer what one wants to see necessarily ... but it will certainly keep you on your toes.

oh.. heh, right - like when you break it to pieces you get those tiny white balls - sumpin li' ghat

That product is also the whole week's cumulative - I don't have a problem with light to low end moderate events - that seems to be a correction staging point... others, like the 14th, have do-do to less even. The fact of doing so seemed to rub the wrong way, and as usually is the case... if someone brings in a lucid objective red flag to the fray, people knee jerk react to the facet ...as though it's - I dunno - some troll thing? to vanquishing everything ... but I'm not gonna get into it. I never said it wasn't coming yesterday ...

I think this is more what is likely to happen frankly ... although I'd be inclined to shave 2-3" off that layout This antecedent air mass appears too liberally eroded out by the Euro (00z) and this recent GGEM solution(s), given to phsyical limitations of having armed polar high N-W, while the baroclinic axis is clearly already S-E of the region.. Not sure why these runs are running up that much warm intrusion to the surface/lower sigma levels... but, even if they are right in principle with 'compacting' the front N into southern throwing distance, I suspect the ptype bands are not as liberally smeared IP that far N into the interior. Short version, there valid reasons to question the Euro( 00z) GGEM (12Z) Oh, that's the whole week's snow - okay.. I thought that was just the 16th

is it still in 2nd place over all - lol ... always been a mystery for me how it scrapes that performance

Lol - I don't know what those are called in all honestly. You know ? those tiny little 'dandruff' sized balls of white that bounce on the hood of a car. It'd need to do that for 20 days to get an inch worth, but they're real. They're about the size of a single 'grit' ... I dunno. It's like the pixie dust Will was mentioning above, only it gets balled up - balled pixie dust maybe

Discrete interpretation of the CMC to me isn't all cold rain and ZR though ... no way... Firstly, the model is doing what I and other's have been mentioning... smearing impulses together and making the whole period between Sunday and Wednesday in the game. Prior, it was 14 or 17 ... Now, it's 14 ... polar cloudy lull with grits or even flits along with a nagging cold breeze, then this CMC has Monday with S-IP-ZR-R transition but look out! The 16th impulse runs up on it's heels.. Meanwhile, the Monday late day surface has a meso/ .. lead wave look squiring seaward of the area, and will invariably draw cold air back south ... 'Mess' is probably the best work for it - and it's an Asperger's paradise of focus figuring out the timing of all that cluster f -

That’s funny that’s phasing potential I talked about that over a week ago - it’s been in the guidance and now getting into this near term and it’s trying to pull it off now- its incomplete this way ... If the N stream would come on down and really capture ( subsume variant of phasing...) we could go the other way. I think it’s owing to the fact that the flow is so fast that it’s really hard for the models to process that delicate stream interaction of wave mechanics and so forth… Which probably also means that this isn’t the final say solution. But I wouldn’t trust the GGEM anyway just sayn

Didn't we have a pan-regional event a couple season's ago... it was a sleet mess. My front yard had 2.5" of sleet that next morning when I keyed my car. I was amazed... I mean, 2.5" of sleet is a pretty hefty water stoked event, and to have all that be clear pellets was really something. I remember the run -up to the event thinking it could bust snowier ..roughly the N- half/arc of the spatial realization, because the logic at the time was a very cold antecedent air mass, might pile up deeper in the sounding east of the Berks'-Whites topography, ... etc..etc..and make the soundings rather steep/frontogenic loaded... That would tend to compress the latitude bands of ptype S ... you know - cold rain- ZR-IP-S ... But it was the same sort of thing from HFD to almost CON NH... IP everywhere.. big dose of it. I don't think this is that. I do think with the high pressure and general +PP arced W-N of the area, and the B-C zone slicing SW-NE well enough S of our latitude, this really should compress the ptype bands more so.

There it is ! Lol ... now I can go on with the rest of my day

Yeah.... I get that every year roughly now... this week actually. It seems the aviary community is responsive to the solar cycle ( perennial oscillation as cuing perhaps ?) .. The solar min begins on November 8th ...and ends at Feb 8th at 45 deg N. I am not sure what metric is used to define/ .. calculate that time delineation - but that is the duration. Maybe it has to do with flux/irradiance... watts/square-meters .. I dunno. Contrasting - naturally - the max is May 8th to August 8th. So of course the transition seasons are in between. The astute reader sees the 3-month periodicity of each. I think of the first day of "Sun Spring" to be Feb 8th. Climate lag ( which is a 300,000 page novel of reasons for 'lagging' ...), we don't really sensibly taste the seasonal change until much later - or are not supposed to anyway, any year between the Younger-Dryas climate motif and approximately the year 2010 ( lol ) ... Just being droll. But flora is perhaps in part evolutionarily programmed by both sun and climate, and appreciative warmth isn't noticed until later by human registry. Birds are different perhaps - I digress... Every year when this time comes ...the aviary fauna around my neighborhood pops to life at dawn. It doesn't seem to matter how cold it is..either. They did that on Feb 15 in 2015, when we were getting dystopian 850 mb -EPO conveyors in between 30:1 cryo bombs on the coast. 7am... birds arguing out of window and darting too and fro. I always thought that was interesting... Like, how the insides of cars don't need heaters mid day on sunny days post that magical date... Like clock work.. got in the car yesterday ... it was 28 F at the time outside in the ambience, but it was maybe 72 inside. That was not the case when it was sunny last week.

Lol, I was just thinking about that - In the last 5 years, maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it. I piled out of my office one afternoon in mid February one of those years. I wanna side 2018 before the March collapse and snow reminded with cruelty. Earlier that afternoon, while I was pecking away at software code, my door was ajar to my office. I more at unconsciously became aware as their voices Doppler'ed up and down while passing by , " - so ridiculously warm outside I .." - unintelligible fade. I mean, I knew it was going to be so ...all things considering and who we are as nerds. But that - heh... no one has shown that week of extraordinary weather results with nearly the appreciation it really deserves, ever since, if you ask me. March arrived, and the "phew" psychology for the weather community seemed to quietly bury its significance - something has ... Anyway, I did not really honestly anticipate what would become of my sensible weather destiny that afternoon as I piled out of the office. It's one thing to intellectually process the model guidance and see it - "feeling" it on the skin, ...entirely a different spiritual significance. I froze, in awe, slowly turning my eyes back and forth begging a toe hold on reality, standing there mid way through a proper winter month, at 42 and change latitude N, in New England of all places... mid 80s That was an absolute first for me and still ... the idea of having a diurnal height ... 45 to 50 F above normal (mind us, 'normal' in the ~ ides of February is ...what 38 ) that's hard to wrap one's mind around intellectually or spiritually ... I don't know how to really scale that. I mean, what ? "Half-a hundred over climo" ...?? what does one say that captures that. As hard to do as it may be to finally accept that ever happen... and allow it to be quietly buried as just one of those things in weather-life... It happened in mid March the year before. And before that, we had heat in April the drove temperatures into the 90s - although that took place rather dramatically in rogue hot-month back in 1976 I believe it was... 4 days in the mid 90s. Dr. Colby and I geeked for a few minutes at the obs directory from that April and May that spring, and there really wasn't ever a recidivism of colder climes at any point... it was either 65 of mid 80s pretty much from April 10 to through June - don't recall exactly ...maybe there was a couple or few days worth where it slipped back to 45 but they were brief. See that's different though ( intuitively/ .. existentially) It is different because that was a stand alone spring ( overall ) looking at that previous 50 ... 100 years perhaps. Until 2009 ... that years, and since, we've had our share of blue bomb snow events in spring...but we have also registered some uncanny warm episodes that are outlandish. By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn' Lol, I was just thinking about that - In the last 5 years, maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it. By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn' 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5

I'm sure others have mentioned/ .. are onto this, but my turn of phrases - The operational 00Z GFS/ 06Z GFS blends illustrate an interesting emergence in the handling of next week. The Sunday (14th) thing ...it appears almost like it, and the 16th ...possibly beyond, the model is trying to morph into one protracted light event, with multiple nested intervals of enhancement to moderate. I think this velocity predicament ...driving along progression tendencies, which should in fact tend to 'stretch' fields along the vectors of the streamlines ... that lends support for flat scenario anyway. What we have is a fantastic baroclinic gradient that exists from the TV- off the MA ( ~ ), ...meanwhile, the ballast of the mid level momentum associated with the polar jet, is situated W-N of that surface to 800 mb frontal slope. the restoring wind into the jet ...is up that slope. that's the basic canvas from Sunday clear to latter Wednesday ... it's in all guidance... The Euro/EPS appears to be suppressing the boundary a bit more between the Sunday and Wednesday ...more coherently identifiable impulse/waves along that same axis, and this shuts it all down and probably even offers a sun shot through cirrus in a nagging cryo breeze inbetween ... I think that ows to that guidance having a tendency to curve all surfaces ...or hold on to them .. but the GFS is could be too flat. Hard to say - either could win, and the variances are not huge in a win - loss scenario enough to really impugn the other models performance. but, that variance is the difference between that lull being more described in the EPS/Euro .. where as the GFS camp may be slate gray skies with grits and freezing drizzle , in between two or three impulses of light to moderate snow/mix bursts. In summary the GFS seems is trying to do a weak Feb 1994 surface analog - a "fast flow long event" by virtue of having the boundary statically positioned idyllically for a steady-state WAA draw up the frontal slope, with local time-scale enhancements... Whereas the Euro wants more of a break in there. Either solution could win... 50/50 at this particular assessment point ( to me )

... but in folks' defense ... others overreact. they take mere observations as absolute and gospel ...no other option - the previous mode must not count or doesn't exist heretic worthy of lord of the flies retribution lol no, they're just observations. i mean, that -AO starting at -5 or -6 and ending up +1 in 5 f'ing days isn't something that should be ignored - now ...that may be over doing it? sure - but it shouldn't go unnoticed. plus, frankly this is a hemisphere that is presently spring loading ( pun intended! ) by an erstwhile suppressed (la nina+ HC)/2 influence... if released, booinnnng - these latter factors could even 'synergistically' make a warm spring get out of control ... "could" - just an observation. relax

This is a really good point actually - ...gotta be aware of the maintaining error in the tele's ...

not me

yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses - you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing. overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ...

"get over" what ? dude ... you imagine confrontation too frequently and then smolder - it's annoying more so than your stubbornness and frankly I don't give a flying f if you agree, don't or think who is right or wrong. And by the way... I am not wrong about those statement I made regarding the model performance/tendencies therein - nor the veracious application of them. We're done -

I'm not entirely sure you are getting my point frankly - it's not about 2-4 or 3-5 as a snow call - the point is, these have been normalizing coming in from mid range all season. "Highly doubt" is not a substantive logical counter point to that former fact, and the former fact ( unfortunately ...) is. Ya gotta give more to offset: - performance trend - fast velocity flow/progressivity not lending to bigger payloads I'm just trying to keep equal consideration for less - maybe call it devil's advocate, only in this case ... the devil is reality .. well, maybe objectivity

mm hm, but ...the lack of consideration for dimming trends is like what Scott was complaining about earlier - I see the same thing.. Lucid "counter extraordinary" posting content ... ignored or ridiculed. Like, it seems there are veracious reasons to assess even "3-5" ..or, even "2-4" may be more like it .. For some reason, that doesn't get the same accolades - lol ... sorry that's funny. true, but funny

I actually thought it was a tick less with QPF - Also - there's some morphology in the 500 mb S/W layout. As the 17th's S/W gunk is rising over the SE ridge wall/interfacing it's structure is stretched(ing) compared to the previous run. .. the 00z run was conserving more curved structure. See ... I just keep seeing the seasonal trend to diminish the strength of these features showing up in these on-going guidance behaviors - less than noticeably without bothering to do so. I dunno - where's this one going to end up. Plus, the Euro tends to correct flatter going from the outer toward inner middle range, too. Looking just beyond there's a sig L/W axis trying to set up around 100 W whilst the SE ridge is still pretty well anchored ... so given these destinies, the wave registry is shutting down on this 17th system - I think there will be something there ... I'm just quite unsure it will be all that significant. So, we have models over-assessing in that range as one thing. Then, synoptic limitations in there that offer doubt in their own rights - should we "choose" to look. Seems to me the objective thing here to suspect this ends up not as big. We'll see. Everything I said is true, but if this run happens to nail it - it doesn't make what I said not true. It just means the mitigations halted. I don't think these mitigations are going anywhere though. Seasonal model performance trend doesn't lend to them exactly nailing a robust solution on D6 ... And the fast flow /SE ridge shit? ha, seems is the new world order lol

12z GGEM looks like a low end warning HFD to Boston's metro west -

Hopefully you're kidding ..but gosh no - no, the use of those products is more symbolic. They are 'hints' that a warmer regime "might" be formulating and given time, it may bust through the dying AO proxy on the flow. Which I think the it's been heavily influencing above ~ 50 N much of the winter. It seems the blocky nature up N is in a weird incongruity wrt to the fast paced progressive flow sliding by underneath to the S. The hemisphere appears unusually strongly split between the Ferrel latitude circulation type ( roughtly above 50 N ...), vs the lower latitudes where the expanded HC is being compressed and we are seeing velocities/ progressive tendencies along the interface - not sure what your level of understanding/background is... but that's all more so than less, observably defining this winter to me. We don't typically see west limb -NAO blocking nodes with 140kt 500 mb jet streams blowing from Frisco to London underneath - that's unusual..

I do wonder though.. could that be sign of an end to this winter - just an early speculation here. Not all at once per se ..but that's the turner - This year smacks as not being like the last several, where there was onset NAOs that crippled Aprils and May for warmth. Granted, it's only entering mid Feb but usually - in my experience - when the Earth wants to do a region a different idea it starts hinting its coming. These are like those hints to me ( blw ), but they are hints I am intrigued by because we have ( La Nina spring climo + HC expansion ) and those two, together, are a bit of a constructive interference behind this spring's pattern. Whenever we get into that sort of "emergent" resulting stuff, the 'rogue' wave effect comes into play; we don't know if the synergistic result end up more than the sum of the individual players - by definition of course... Mapping those too effects over each other ...this could all end in a hurry, and it may not be a good spring for March snow. Or ..lol... watch, it'll be a +10 March with a single two day 30" bomb that has nothing to do with blocking - ... Kidding, but blocking or not, 'canon ball season'