Typhoon Tip

ha hahahaha ... 'cosmic tip'

the 7th ... heh .. may be just a juggling and logistics thing in the runs, not sure, .. .but the best fit for timing the telecon modalities out there is the 8/9/10th of January. then this arrives in the 12z eps mean? .... yeah, i think y'all might want to wait a day. anyway, this is about as deep as there will ever be a signal at 300+ hours from an ens system. i was actually going give some time to this in that thread i started this morning but figured it'd be too much. this is like real wild territory there

i thought he was talking about the 1/2nd ? either way, the op was on the western edge of the envelope with the 1/2nd. doesn't matter much ...the mean was still only snowing ( maybe ) during the ending 1/3rd or so .. but like you were saying, there's colder variants arriving from other guidance. boy, 126 hours ... seems the model all-over-the-place-ness is worse this season. i think it's the low frequency waves in a high speed flow issue

yeah. you know i'm not sold and/or trying to sell a cold solution outright ..but this scenario has the hallmark of a coastal collapsing mix line thing. it's a ways out there at 130 hours to be so precise - of course. but this is a very negative tilt system, which means we rotate the cyclone model aloft some 45 deg, and that implicates a cold N flow with still some lift going on - has the advantage of chilling the column late.

I was going to start this thread a couple days ago when asked, but ...alas! Xmas got in the way. Happy Holidays... Moderate interior snow is gaining merit both conceptually, and via deterministic methods, for Jan 1/2 - this is still an evolving scenario but the ceiling isn't very high for now. ( yes there's perhaps a more important signal later toward the 8/9/10th; letting the 'Jester January' thread handle for more comprehensive discussion for now. Jan 1/2 is not settled in my mind as far as which side of marginality that evolves. Firstly, the advent of a system in the flow at that time has gained enough signal strength from both teleconnector monitoring, but in the spatial/synoptic handling in the ensemble means to warrant confidence. The logistics of Pacific wave injections has been problematic, particularly in the GEFs system. We're now around 6 days out on this, and while the EPS has been stalwart consistent without deviation for over three consecutive days worth of run cycles means, the recent GEFs are more so onboard - to mention, the 06z GFS showing a fuller commitment to a Miller B, albeit middling circulation/depth ..but this is still an evolving total scenario. Edit, the 12z just came around to the colder solution so am opting to use that as it quite frankly makes the point ... Lastly, this Jan 1/2 is actually the inflection in +d(PNA) that first appeared in the telecon prognostics some 8 or 10 days ago. I realize that folks were focused on the 6/7/8 period. but frankly that was the 'intra modal' signal, and those tend to lose out in time... as the modeling period shortens; I suspect the recent attenuation, with emphasis repositioning out toward the latter signal around the 9th is the better fit - hint hint, that's quite a signal out there. **One aspect that I think needs to be considered is that altho the NAO phase may or may not be spatially represented in the modeling depictions, subtleties in the behavior of the modeling cinema bear suggestion that an influence lurks. There is/has been some backward exertion in the field among the various modeling system when attempting to impinge N-E of 80/40. This opens the suggestion to an east tendency in future guidance... I saw the 06z GFS ( oper.) do exactly that ... i think this event is for real. I also think there is a medium potential ( so not great mind you - ) that it has a chance to be a 'collapsing to the coast' type of event - it's been a long time since we've observed a scenerio like that, and it's not a major ordeal. But it could be a back half 1/3 or even 1/2 cyro profile, as dynamic height falls associated with a period of better deepening as it is exiting, work over the top of modest but crucial chilly marginal air mass mid way thru and onward..

good post, but i'd suggest one small alteration to the bold above. '...this board is addicted to the model produced cinema for a thrill' - otherwise spot on... lol j/k sorta i do offer there is usefulness in identifying 'probability nodes' within a general pattern evolution, however. for example, folks want to get past the 5th or whatever ... however, that is actually 'intramodal' there is less mass field restorative forcing once inside the relative stasis of a pattern mode. it's at the onset and outset of the pattern inflections where things get interesting. which is why in this case, dec 30 - jan 4 is the better fit. it's just that those systems look to arrive in a rotted polar air mass ...during this latter leg of cc no less. heh. one thing that's hurting that range is that we've pretty much lost the operational representation of what was originally a better -nao demo. it's blown away and that's why these systems are cutting and/or are too warm - tending to be that way as of late in guidance.

i was referring to the operational 'model magnification' aspect wrt to amplitude. a s/w and resulting affairs are attenuated something like 15 to as much as 40% over whatever is embedded in the late mid range+, over time. it's really an aspect i factor in. anyway, the ens means are over doing these patterns out in time. the operational runs are over doing embedded features, after that fact. in principle, it's an issue with modeling tech in general

mm, relative to this 2 week window, incoming? absolutely - that would help the white glovers' case however, i advance that the op runs are as guilty as the pattern selling by ens', but with embedded emergences when they are there. just sayn'/adding

aah ... there should be no game. the reality is failing returns on optimistic outlooks ... period. that cannot be controverted ( argued against...) because it is the reality. anything else milquetoasts in an attempt to either evade that reality, or white glove it - which frankly aggravates those that want to engage in this social media but have to wade through this amelioration thing the point is ( altho there's sarcasm in that, too...yes ) modeling systems are very drastically short on productive results, given both qualitative and quantitatively supportive outlooks. it's fair enough to suspect that this aspect, too, will end up yet another canard pattern.

i'm kind of fighting off the temptation to fall into Ray's bad attitude ... tired of ogling these amazing pattern Rembrandts only to have whatever emerges in time ... all but dependably becoming a head-game of diminishing returns. in a lot of ways, it's like the modeling systems are gas-lighting lol

yup . also, to reiterate the 6-7th still has the better 'conceptual cold' look just given to the evolution, et al ... 'Brooks and I have been discussing going back. but that's technically gaga range

i'm considering but i'm pressed for time... i have to go to a ham dinner in a jiff. maybe tonight when i return? it would have to be another "experimental outlook" as though i'm keen on an event around the 2nd/3rd, i'm far less sure it will be the "type" of impactor folks want to read about ... hahaha. by the way, the only thing that is off putting about this particular mean for any sane winter enthusiast is the fact that it's at the end of the run and thus liable to change. But even so... therein consider this amplitude at this time range - i'm like whaaa

yeah, the more i've analyzed the hemi this morning i suggest the gefs merely strayed for a day. there's weight coming from other telecon that offer less support. it happens. it's not an indictment before anyone gets started with that vamp, not at this range. we've seen the eps do that before.

yeah .. i mean not to oversell it - just don't ignore. that doesn't have to modulate a ton to be the first player entering that time span. i feel pretty confident - more so than climo for this range and modeling ... - that there'll be a system then and there but lots of time to iron out the marginality

12z eps and operational euro are more emphatic about my jan 2nd system actually existing on the map - heh... that's important for one. but, the operational euro's position thru ny state is a warm/west outlier relative to the ensemble mean, which is in fact, deeper than its 00z depiction, and also more se, taking a low along the climate track that typically does well... also the ensemble mean is showing that a cold solution at 850 mb is on the table i think we should be at minimum not flouting this energy here in this range. it's 7 consecutive eps mean cycles getting 2 mb more coherent per, and this is still 200+ hours, while the 850 is getting ticks colder.

gefs migrated though ... ...I mean I get what you mean with the 'ptsd' barb. that's funny by the way, and quite true. see, people don't realize that sardonic humor isn't conveyed very well, not in a toneless written media, so they only achieve sounding like trollic assholes .. i kind of get this image of a person typing with a smirk grin on their face, thinking they got the room laughing along with their grapes, when really everyone's going 'you're a douche' anyway, the gefs may come back.. there are some east asia/west pac arguments that combined with the mjo projections ... sort of make the gefs recent move come under scrutiny. the short version i'm personally more in the eps side for generalizing the pattern foot. we'll see as far as meat, the better hamburg is probably the 5/6th like we were saying the other day, but this one on the 2nd is still there. for what it is not worth ( which is a lot of not worthiness haha), the 00z euro skynet model is mix miller b with the 2nd, then a mix/snow for the 6th. who's with me!?

haha LOL ... hey, in the spirit of the empathic diplomacy ... choosing words delicately here. altho- it's true that that a modulating -nao is in that noise out there.

1993-1994 was barren of any snow thru Dec 28 ...then all hell broke loose and many sites over eastern SNE would go on to laying down their greatest snow season in history because of what happened after Dec was lost. it's an open a shut case... a dumb case/debate to begin with, but just fwiw - ------------------------- quite the the guidance source battle. You intimated there was a conflict yesterday? or someone did. Anyway, conflict is the first description that leaped to mind when comparing the EPS vs the GEFs mean ( 00z) this morning. I lean EPS and suggest this system is real ... at least more real than the paltry (if at all existing...) GEFs. but again, I'm not sure if the troposphere will modulate ( in guidance ) colder as this time period gets closer. In theory ...the NAO derivatives of both sources enter a statically negative value from about 3 days from now, out to the end of the 360 hrs; spatial synoptic handling would have it manifesting over the western limb, too. Meanwhile, that is not being very well represented in the operational versions of either the Euro or GFS. That's tricky...because for one, that means that it can reemerge at any time; small correction vector is suggested, pointed at suppression/colder even though it may or may not be presently seen. The other aspect is that these operational layouts, having less NAO ... they don't offer enough suppression and cold, so these systems are cutting inland in the recent operational tenors. There are two main aspects to contend/resolve for me. The first is whether the ensemble mean of the EPS is more or less correct than the GEFs with the Pac across N/A. The 2nd is whether the circulation mode over eastern Canada doesn't exert out of seemingly no where ... seeing as there's a memo in circulation telling that department it's okay to do so. I will say though that the GEFs has almost completely lost the +d(PNA) that the EPS still has. There's quite a lot of tension and implicit impact differences there. Yesterday, the GEFs mean still had, albiet more modestly, a +d(PNA) heading into the 2nd of January(ish). As of last night, it's gone. It's really been a remarkable feat of engineering watching the GEFs forecast system work to eradicate it. So now ... yeah, conveniently the GFS is no longer out of sync with it's ensemble mean. It doesn't fit the MJO comin' around the bend out there in 7 and then moving through 8, however. Nor the Nina foot print that's "suppposed" be strengthening through this period - these latter aspects according to the MJO desk/CPC. "...• An MJO signal crossing the Pacific tends to be associated with a pattern change favoring increased troughing over the eastern US. This pattern shift has recently become quite prominent in dynamical model forecasts for early January....." They both are -EPO out there toward Jan 10... and also have the negative AO... these are actually correlated well to phase 8--> 2... putting all this together ... it seems there is room for the GEFs to be wrong here - or more wrong than the EPS. But I have to fair and honest, having the GEFS/GFS now together ...mmm The thing is...I'm interested ( tho less than two days ago, admittedly) in the Jan 2nd/3rd-ness becaues typically ... events take place closer to the entry and exit temporality of large mass field changes - which is what these telecons are designed to mark in time. The EPS spatial synoptic cinema fits that expectation - for now.

every one of the waves the gfs progresses through flow that is being impelled by blocking to slow down ..( eh hem ), is preceded by +pp n-ne of maine, yet the gfs takes cyclone after middling cyclone right through it - these gfs runs as of late have sooo many issue with them, from the super synoptic continuity breakdown as of late, to these nuanced idiocy discrete aspects like above... not saying the euro products are better per se, but i still suggest the eps mean - which has actually improved during the day - for the 2nd(ish) is our next more significant system. it may also be led in short duration by some sort of a disturbance prior to the slow down around the 31. this does not speak to ptype.

it’s more than that the entire hemisphere in the gfs has been rotated clockwise since 12z yesterday by 30 or so deg. one should be able to perceive that using the animation above ‘differences on or about the 3rd’ if you took the eps mean on that date and rotate it clockwise by that approximation the two means line up.

it really never appeals to me to begin with. no one's asking me for my opinion of course, just my commiserate contribution if it is like this while lacking any event cinemas once we get past the holidays i really just hope for cc to fight back and go shock and awe early balm and end it

I think it’s related to the expanding hadly cell phenomenon

in principle you were right though ... - just that feb 3 came to mind. point is, this has been rarefying

for 270 hrs out in time, to mention also the erstwhile coursework of discussion ..data et al, this is a fantastic signal - and it is in both the gefs and eps

the gefs ending frame is shockingly amplified at the wholesale hemispheric scope on this particular 12z mean - i've not ever seen that at this range, frankly. it's 360 dopey hours but ... usually by d10 the noise of the members is transforming the mean into a annular structure ... but this is just weird what that's doing