Typhoon Tip

yesterday's cold front limped through and finally gets paralysis between Hatteras and Bermuda ...Soon it begins to retrograde W-N as a warm front, while going through frontalysis - it's remnant structure diffuses thru during the day on Friday. The MA to NE, east of Appalachia transitions into subtropical balm for the weekend. There should be rain in that transitioning window of time. How much or how little.. Then on Saturday, has to do with convective sensitivity in tropical air. But, these types of laminar stream-line Bahamian conveyors can sometimes set up training albeit narrow repeating CB conduits. Heights rise from an unusual direction. It's interesting that this has been prevalent in the Euro and GFS and their ensemble means for four or five days worth of cycles, during the Sun thru mid next week time span. Get's harder to knock that consistency as mere noise. It's an odd behavior, frankly - some variant of Bermuda/WAR ( north of normal spatial layout) retrogrades west from the Atlantic but doing so such that Bermuda its self is below the ridge space. I don't trust anything the models are depicting after D6 in this scenario/guidance layout, because the whole thing of it is so highly unusual with that +6 SD 850 mb plume under non-hydrostatic heights so high they must be tickling the moon's ball hairs over lower British Columbia and the northern Rockies ... yet negative 850 mb temperatures suddenly over PHX-LAX ... The 00z runs seems to be spraying continuity turds into the fan.

Saturday entry is possible ... but it may be an 87/76 steam bath at first sunday looks impressive in recent Euro runs with 93/74 type look

Oh m g at the 12z Euro. it's almost comically hot - I mean, jesus. D4 to 10 is interminably unending, everywhere, along and S of the 50th parallel across North America, thru D10 and seemingly beyond ... I'm actually toasting my bun visions over the western grill at that look. I think coastal locations have been dodging the acetylene torch. Modest yet critical shallow marine climo flow won that battle on this last week's headline event, but this appears now to be a seasonal problem - I think Weatherwiz was wondering about that a while ago? Anyway, that heat this next week is precarious yet again, and every bit as extremes. In fact, it is further N to include more the whole west if anything. Plus, the deep layer non-geostrophic heights/ridging being also slightly N of climo is setting up a weirdly easterly - albeit light flow, still easterly - anomaly underneath the ridge node toward La and Frisco. I can't imagine if that were ever enough to take that Central Valley air mass and send over the coastal ranges down into those urban areas. Bay Area canal winds might collapse and my f god they'd just up and spontaneously combust if that happened. I don't think it ever has quite that way - I'm a reasonably talented Sci Fi author - lol... seriously though, it seems just looking at these charts and means like the synoptics are trying for something extraordinary. Not that the heat the rest of the area has experienced isn't already, but it looks like the mechanism that keep the cool pacific boundary layer ventilation moving in so that civility can even exist there ... could be at risk of shutting down or even reversing in that D5-9 window.

you may be west of the gully stream steet flooder rain axis - But, the radar has an ANA look to it, with light to moderate shreds from PHL up to southern NH and ... well, I guess it's just not a softball game and hot dog at the park type of evening

kinda interesting. There a cluster of general sheet lighting and embedded downpours in moderate rain over eastern CT and eastern L.I. and Sound that's training up behind those cells. SE Mass may end up with a water surplus- haha.

Because my life has so much functional purpose and deeply transcendent meaning ... Synopsis of A "Bahama Blue" Pattern, By Jack Handy

Yeah...maybe Martha's Vineyard can get a tornado ... bein' it's far more intuitively plausible that location would over anywhere on the mainland of New England Seems like the last 3 years has been a weird Cape Cod/Island micro-alley

Tomorrow's a gem... lingers some the next day.. then, 'don't get use to it' cliche hugely apropos. Euro and EPS mean/blend ( but admittedly the oper. version is maybe 10% more amplified as is typically a flat error potential ) essentially illustrate 6 straight days of 74 to 94 up your way ( 74 being Mt bird poop and 94 in the valleys' ) with 60 to 76 DP until the end of the run. The GFS, while eager as usual to break it down/start to by D8.5...does have 3 days of it too. Heat wave's a -brewin' How big it gets probably is shadowed by Oregon to N. California's melting off the face of the Earth headline that seems inescapable in the guidance too. I just wonder if this is going to go down as some kind of hottest summer ever. I mean, June at the climo sights down here ... assuming a Euro solution, appear destined to end +5 .. +7 ... That's a huuuge number for a solar max month frankly. I mean, it's easier to rack up that kind of numeric in February, because the stasis has more room in the upward direction - but in June? Tell you what - you ( proverbial you... not you personally) don't want +10 out of July. Trust me - that might represent a problem.

Front's limping through Ayer ( for reference ..) as I'm typing. We have dark bases in a general over-cast, humid still but underbelly skud tendrils are moving ESE while everything else above is still SW, so it gives the allusion of a drift undercutting. It's not a lot of momentum on this thing at the moment. Be that as it may, WPC is also analyzing the front right over us here in western Middlesex, and it slopes down to eastern CT. It seems to be out ahead of satellte baroclinic banding/leaf, ...almost smacks as an ana cloud deck. interesting. Not sure but this seems to be doing everything it physically can to make sure your bold can't happen LOL No one asked but tomorrow is going to be about 74 with 1,000 mi visibility in an atmosphere of unknowable RH - that's like a +7 SD 'good' day. The exceptionally rare 11 in the 1 to 10 scale

Mm... I realize I may be a bit of maverick intellect in this discussion when it comes to the ENSO modulation of the winter hemisphere but no - y'all are way too far weighting the ENSOs, those that are particularly of the < 1 or > -1 in the crucial domain space(s) "correlation" - which I put in quotes because that correlation itself HAS TO BE CHANGING. Ugh - ...Unless we want to deny climate change. Climate, is an aggregate occurrence of events, divided by the number of those events. Those occurring events, before the average takes place, are guided by changes in the environment. Like, duh duh duhnnnn - a warming world. This would be true in a cooling world, too. Just happens to be, the Earth stowed 3 billion years worth of fossil fuels into the lithosphere, and a single force comes along ( the "Anthropocene Epoch" ), and threatens to reactivate all its reactive volatile chemistries back to the environment in 1/1,000,000,001 th of that former span of time - mm yeeeah, I'm gonna go ahead and ask you to come in on Sunday too, and admit we are in a global warming problem that is seriously going to f'up seasonal climate at middle latitudes, and it is likely already happening in our life-times ( I love that escape tactic). Just a hunch - Part of the problem is, there is vernacular gap related to sloppiness of terminology. We probably shouldn't call it climate change? I mean, sure, the climate is changing for those outside the Industrial enabling delusion bubble, that is. But we should probablycall it, changing weather types leading to changing averages that are no longer infer-able. Because this longer wordier approach drills it in that the system is not responding to climate change. The wrong way around and isn't proving useful to the masses. But ... I also realize, the baby elephant in the room that is growing is that people want to engage in seasonal prediction; which by definition requires' predictors,' and without the ENSO mantra and narrative to canvas, people don't know how to apply any paint to that discussion. They don't want their fans and followers to open their seasonal press release and it's entire content reads, "Changing climate means the methods for prediction are no longer valid. N/S ...so enjoy the outlook! " But, it all unfortunately means we are all just speculative rubes defaulting outside the cutting edge that separate plausible, fancifully worded fiction, from more likely truths. So here's my rube take: For the 100th time, the Hadley Cell is beginning to expand it's termination boundary ( which is amorphous - it's not like a 'curb' in space like you see on the edge of boulevard ... ) beyond the ENSO tropical nutation field - that limits the ENSO's direct forcing ability ( general physical interfacting ) with the main band of the westerlies. This is not John verbosity and jamming my own bs down people's throats. I've cited both source, and personal observation/anecdotal that supports the former, sourcing. It empirical from other sources et al in the ambit of research, as well as formulaic presently. But, I am probably a maverick relative to this social-mediasphere. It's just IMHO, but evidence has been out there for awhile: higher ENSO reliance is old school.

Hey Don - thanks for all this recap and refinement in data delivery. Always appreciated ( and fascinating ) in/during significant event postmortem "... The June 2021 heatwave was among Phoenix's and Tucson's most severe June heatwaves and their most severe heatwave this early in the season. This heatwave developed as an extreme upper air ridge evolved during an era of rising June temperatures and an ongoing drought. An extreme heat event commenced at Tucson on June 11 and it commenced at Phoenix on June 13..." Quick comments, one anecdotal, one observed/philosophical, respectively: One ... I've often mused that heat waves in July and August, as extreme as they are, are actually manifested under an' insolation disadvantage' - so to speak, compared to that June 7 thru July 7 span. Those latter ones manifest in a more favorable circulation medium, but are missing the pinnacle solar. Don't say that to the dead souls of 1995 Hades On Earth Chicago heat wave that didn't make it - unfortunately, the enormity of that event is still a false equivalence to the absolute scalar potential of what "could have happened" if all that set up on June 20! That's another in the myriad of those interesting sort of 'tendency checks-and-balances' that miraculously save Earth ( and there are very many in other physical domains ). Seasonal lagging by a month or more, protects the hemispheres from the hostility of the hottest potential; at the other end, the deeper cold arrival tends to occur when the sun's already coming back. In a 'hippy' sense, Kumbaya for life to have those extremes tend to soften if we want to get into the Goldilocks discussion. But, sometimes these "rules" break - Two ... The 'heat dome' out was was actually the ridge that gave us the unusual five days of 90 up here in NE U.S. the week prior; it retrograded toward the west and slipped right under Chicago ( while changes in a Rossby wave order rolled-out over southern Canada ) to where it then re-anchored over the SW. This all reminds me of non-lineary wave arguments.. For the general read - the ridge it's self is not like an object being moved around in circulation super-structures. What's actually happening is that the forcing that creates the ridge is moving west; that force is non-linear wave function/forcing. It has to do with transitive wave-mechanics, where on-going activity at point A acts like a wave-guide and drives the emergence of wave structures at point B, with no apparent or observable connection between the two points in space. You get that in fluid dynamic systems...etc. As a separate point of interest, when no observable connection results in sudden wave emergence in the ocean - for example - this is can lead to rogue-wave phenomenon. And so the ridge really was forcibly emerging west relative to the flow - it gives the allusion of the ridge bodily moving west. Troughs do the same - in fact, ridge-trough couplets compose a single wave length, but the non-linear forcing can favor one or the other. All retrograde motion is in fact 'support shifting' It's why those are the most difficult leading times in deterministic Meteorology, because retrograde is synonymous with non-linearity activity and that is by nature .. 'invisible' as a governing motivator. These take place more frequently in the atmosphere, because the atmosphere is less dense and is moving faster. My personal 'hypothesis' is that the biggest events take place when non-linear, and linear wave forcing mechanics super-impose constructively within the same spatial domain. The linear is infer-able via the EOF suggestion/correlation ( teleconnectors like PNA ..AO/EPO/NAO/WPO ... MJO etc...although the MJO is in fact a wave strength index; being MJO is a wave, probably does play a mathematical roll in inducing these...). Non linear contribution is the 'positive bust' so to speak. Or, in other facets, for lack of better description, it is like that 'feeling' you get that the EPO is going to balloon - then it happens. But why? It may be some form of intuitive insight as to these 'spooky actions' at a distance - rip from Quantum Mechanics but is seems apropos. Non-linearity may in fact become linear, too, through the physical boundary of the emergence, the other side of which is synergistic result set hat has become real.

It’s in the soundings ...you can see the marine layer in the soundings. Yes it numerically lowers the Cape; it has to thus affect the thunderstorms. That’s just math. I’ve seen radar after radar after radar lose strength when crossing the streamline analysis were the interface is as far north as southern New Hampshire during the south wind contamination earlier is warm seasons. But in principle I agree the distance from the water certainly helps to counter the stability factoring. I bet you have a problem disk in your lumbar region; you should go to the doctor if it reoccurs like that. But then again he’ll just tell you to have a $50,000 surgery

I went over the handle bars last year but was luck. Scrapes and bruises... People need to realize even at 15 miles an hour things can happen really fast

Ur kidding right? - I think those back pain meds might be havin some fun with ya lol. No no dude absolutely plays a huge factor. But it also depends on other factors like time of the year because by late August the water is less a negative impact on that. We have also seen 10s of negate stability decimate thunderstorms when it comes to CAPE it’s that sensitive

Probably all they did was extend a fiberglass rod and flip a circuit break/surge protector. I was told by journey man they try either automated or manually when the power goes out and if that doesn’t work then they send a crew out. An hour seems a little brief they probably flipped the breaker.

Top 10 day on Wednesday

probably but not a certainty -

just took note of that. interesting... I also noticed they shear off the hashing pretty abruptly E of rut-bdl New Haven line .. Can't say I blame them if by climate alone. But, we seem to have generated some decent CAPE here from BOS-HFD and points N ... I'm sure E CT and Providence are lower with the marine contamination; and I wonder if that start intruding farther north to overspread eastern sections - it almost seems it really should.

I noticed the Deer Fly population seem much more than recent years. Wonder what's up with that I mean usually, they lurk in the shade. So it's hot and sunny and you wander under for a break and you get these helicopter blood recons doing mobius loops around one's head and shoulders. They seem to have evolved a recognition to land on ones back of the neck as their preferred target .. yet still need to circuit around a bunch of times to get up the courage to land. This years there can be as many as four or five of them doing this and there's air-raid sirens going off - jesus. I've noticed flowering vegetation did really fantastic blooms this year. From the Lilac shrubbery sizes to the carpeting Alpine Delphinium, just neon colors in aromatic bundles. Bumble bees were plump with big yellow saddle bags slowing their flight speeds to ... well, bumbling. The blue in the blue sky days - not like today ... - has been usually pristine. Could it be that the 20 to 30 % halting caused by the Pandemic era allowed enough environmental cleansing of industrial farts to clear and detox the air ?

Know what ( as I bun myself - ) Keep that 190 sfc to 700 mb flow cranking. In fact, the entire flow out there in the guidance tenor thru D10 could really send the coastal oceanic SSTs from the VA Capes to Cape Cod soaring. Last I checked that region has reversed a cool anomaly into a warm one, already. SO, additionally cumulative surface stressing over time will push the warm surface layers into an ever- growing mass, and then with the sun? The only way to cool it would be evaporation but in the absence of continental low DP type air, the quasi-coupled atmosphere-water DPs are going to probably end up matching. So while the Tuscan sun blazes away for a week over that anomalous southerly flow, we could see some pretty fantastic beach water temperatures from Cape May to the Islands up our way - Then ... we cane muah hahahahahahaha Seriously, I remember in 1998, the water temperature at Narra. Beach was near or in history. I remember leaning over the causeway wall as the water clapped and rolled around kelp-maned boulders, and from the 20 or so foot vantage the water in the shallows was beginning to take on that more translucent form of blue-green tint, even cleansed enough to see the sand floor through some ten feet of ocean water - hard to typically in the Labrador current. You can tell it was kinda of still not there but trying? The swim temp was above 75 F if even warmer than that, and we were bouncing around in the waves for like 5 straight hours. If anything were feeling kind of hot from all the physical exertion of marathon boogie-boarding. Man, ..memories of being young enough to take those gut punches. That was back when the hot-dogs still caused colon polyps and coke hadn't moved through the formula change. Don't miss the cigarette smoke wafting past ...though it was of course okay at night, we'd be candid in Tiva's, torn now out-moded utility shorts, white shirts, buttons partially open to flaunt tanned abs, cigarette in one had, coconut rum drink in the other, hopping bars along the shores roads of westerly RI. Man, we'd still be playing beach volleyball by noon the next day. Different life ... now a point of light out there from vantage of an aft observation deck as this star ship called 'Wasted Journey" unrelentingly speeds toward old age, exceeding the speed of no-time-concept or awareness while years click by at relative speed of seasons.

KFIT 84/72 and being 10 mi E down Rt poop I can tell you the dragon doth fart -

Yeah, I was trying to figure out how and why the NAM was ruining the low grade heat wave that seemed imminent last Friday. Friday, it looked like one of those unsung 89.5 rounding heat waves, Sun - Tue. We ended up doing 90 at KFIT and KBOS ( didn't check anywhere else ) Sat too. And yesterday ... But today KBOS probably can't. One can see why on sat and sfc obs. The flow is veered into 190 and is thick . That warm fog and strata is the coastal marine/land tussle. That effect probably stays situated but may en road to N CT/RI.

GGEM also keeps the BL flow SW the whole time E of ~ Appalachia despite the compressed obtrusive -PNAP jams in. It want's both. Looks like that is a stressed construct; those don't usually last in operational continuity. I mean, if we didn't have: an exit La Nina seemingly bursting it's remaining influence might through a hemisphere that has shed the winter compression soaking and higher anomalous velocity ( ambient geostrophy suppressing and/or distorting the ENSO typology); at present, a deterministic GEF suite's PNA falling; a cadence in the operational runs that hints at timing a Rossby reposition ... it wouldn't be so believable. But seeing as we do have these compounding/converged telecons I think this is hot summer anyway, and these sort of early heat signals shouldn't be ignored as mere noise. But, by saying 'don't ignore', we don't mean load up the wagons and abandon the farmstead in 1934, either - just that in general, above normal is favored and in order to get those above normal temperatures, sounds like these will tend to emerge in the guidance chorus.

0z GGEM is 180 deg, diametrically out of phase with the Euro over the Lakes/OV/NE regions on D9. But the Euro is actually quite a bit more amplified with the WAR/latitude hybrid ridging S-E of LI than it's one EPS mean, which looks more maintenance of SW/Bahama conveyor.

That 00z Euro run shootin' for a top 3 warmest June of all time if that D4- 10 verifies. SW deep layer flow under rising heights for what essentially amounts to the last full week of the month, under +16 C at 850. Could even be Bahama blue pattern for two days with excessive DPs swathing up the coast. That then morphs into a continental heat wave as heights blossom to 595 dm and bubble west under LI on a west retrograde transit, cutting off the theta-e but drafting in 18 or 19 C's Iowa air in a deeply mixed ... oy It's one run and frankly the model doesn't have a lot of synoptic continuity with that look so it is what it is. But oper. GFS seems to have shedded some of it's cold height bias and is pulling/retrograding WAR west as well - noted that yesterday the GEFs PNA was crashing beyond D2 at varying rates of decent among the members. We'll see... but, in either case, the only aspect separating just a substantially above normal torridity pattern, from a deadly heat-wave in those looks, is a mid level shear axis out around 100 W. It's cutting off a W/SW N/A heat release/inject from homogenizing into that - otherwise that would make the entire U.S. from Chicago to Portland ( ME) unlivably hiding from some kind of a naturally occurring weapon of mass destruction.