Typhoon Tip

Ha hahaha... now we know why Jerry moved to the Bay Area looking at that totally fair layout - To then in turn 1978 the next year with him safely out there where he could experience the full fury of New England ... seals the intent and purposes of God.

rght, then this ...

Actually ... that one I think was a positive bust for the DCA-PHL corridor.

I mean can't you just see it there? haha.. That image just wants to write that - 10 pm 'teaser' by a young Bruce Schwoegler, " Twelve inches of snow with heavy blowing and drifting as winter storm warning with blizzard conditions set to unfold during the morning hours, furthering details at 11 -" 9 am, that satellite image.

Way OT but ... does anyone know? This is the famed PD storm of 1979 ... Was that ( say ...) forecasted originally to be a huge blizzard in SNE ? Just looking at this picture seems to howl a story-line of bust that must have been so - it just looks like getting screwed!

Right riiight, and both then and now were in solar minimums with a positive flux in UFO hysteria lol j/k

Yeah ... that's the whole discussion point - the frequency of dramatic short duration corrections. But re 1979 ... did it produce the same amount in areal coverage of snow? Were the ambient event temperatures comparable? There's some other attributes that might have made that less impressive, for one... hitting 80s in October, albeit rare, is even more strange in November, which is when that happened last year. And the warmth lasted was a week long - if that adds. But also, the duration was longer in 1979 between that occurrence of snow and the ensuing warm up. The point is short duration turn around, so comparing those two cases, last year was faster, but also ... more extreme ( perhaps) when including climate. Problem I can see right off the bat in comparing these two events is that the slope of seasonal change is like the free fall on a roller coast ride between Oct 1 and and Thanks Giggedy, such that 2 or 3 weeks makes a bigger difference in comparing which event might "win" the extreme correction distinction LOL. ... Either event was amazing, and 1979 certainly created it's own buzz for snow... then if it was 80s 10 days later etc etc... But what about the 1987 Capital District event in October that year. May as well throw that one in the ring and make this an all-out WWF finale... I can't recall if that was coupled up with excessive warmth right away or not.

Same forces in of lacking supplies appears to permeate an effect throughout all economics. One problem, there's no one available to purchase. But also, "seller" and "greed" tend to be compatible signs on the economic zodiac chart and thus makes it hard for purchasing powers to meet their costs....blah blah... I used to get cold calls and text from ...whomever or whatever outfit cleaved my phone number illegally out of whatever database ( heh ..), asking me to buy my house, as is, no questions ask, flat rate ...take money and walk. Those calls have suddenly stopped in the last 3 to 6 months. Others have expressed getting these calls. I wonder if they've also seen their frequencies suddenly fade as of late. These were 'home flippers' - most likely - targeting a prime market for that particular practice, here in Ayer. The "affluence ring" moving west of Metro through the 1980s and 1990s, has propagated outside of I-495 ( ~ ), now making through these townships between I-91 and 495. Ayer being one of them. This 'free money speculation wave' has really quite suddenly reevaluated the region substantially. I haven't Zilla'ed my own home/property value, per se, but it's true... 30 to even 50% over the market valuations from just 10 years ago has us wondering if we've won lotteries. That's HUGE... free money. But, why this appeals to developers and flippers is because going from a modestly economically depressed generational/blue -collar setting, into one with draw and appeal power ( for whatever forces ultimately drives speculation aside ...) means ( to them ..) there is a crop ( likely ..) of outstanding refinanced and/or troublesome mortgages. Natural assumption, people might want/need help in getting out of those obligations. Throw 200K at 'em, resident cleans out... flipper comes in, resells for double appreciation: edifice upgrade + the appreciation bestowed upon the region by said serendipitous speculation wave. It's a win -win really. There are those that want out; kissing those that give that means to do so, the kisser than makes 100% profit. I mean there are some places ... rumor has it, that were previously 200K closing at 480 and shit. man - So, I'm rambling subject matter "...yeah, every knows how this works" - but that's not my point. The calls have slowed and in fact, I haven't gotten one in 2 months now after a steady died. The problem is, it is going to cost too much to fixer-up and resell, or build new. Supply issues appear to styming matters?

Fits the lower priority narrative that's seems to get buried in the din of CC attributed hurricanes and wild fires... regarding shorter or nested duration "whip lashing" affects ... It's a facet I often sense is forgotten. Like last year's more extreme/obvious example of this: 4-6" snow on October 30 ... a week later it's in the 80s. It seems like - perhaps provably even... - 50 years ago, it's a hard freeze and packing pellets in the air later that afternoon and a 72/50 bath a week later, and everyone's all abuzz at 'how dramatic was the change' ... Nowadays ... 6" of snow --> 84

Global, in the title "Global Warming" means the entire globe - just to be clear. Maybe you mean relative to some shorter time scale ... perhaps one that is native to just this present era ? Just thinking about that ... The d(x)/dt terms are more crucial in identifying the reality of systemic modality. Not the x terms. X scalar values are but a 'snap shot' of present state. LOL, the GW title doesn't say ... "Global WARM" ...it says global warmING. 'Ing' means change, and change obviously requires time. The Arctic is "torching" - subjective term anyway ..ugh. It's warmer than normal, and increasing, even relative to present era. The 30-year mean temperatures are rising in the Arctic domain, and that time span is the standardization by the Science ambit, to mean present era - I suppose if we scale an observation interval down to just a week or something, maybe ? - but at that scale, there's no real practical use for climate studies, because vagarious noise, 'in the weeds' of momentary events, become the visible horizon. Beyond that horizon, larger damning truths cannot be seen. Lengthy aside, why the 30-years ..? I guess to have some kind of conventional order in the science of that matter. 'Getting sort of philosophical here but, there are no real 'boundaries' ... Nature and reality is about logarithmic emergence or decay rates of change. Outside or internal forces become sufficient to modulate a given system: the imposing force may be so weak it takes Millennia to observe change; or, so overwhelming that the changes manifest very quickly. In climate, we may express in urgency, "Global Warming is happening at a startlingly fast rate," but ... that is in deference to the typical rate of change for climate systems, overall. They tend to not really be observable down at the almost instant geological time-span of a single human life, and if they are, something huge is motivating change. Even though ... we're still talking about decades. Basically, there needs to be a kind of instruction manual in how to interpret climate change, and there definitely needed a better PR handling all along. I have been arguing this for years, one of the fundamental biggest hurdle in the climate awareness space, is that there is no real sophistication, frankly 'intelligentsia' in the PR/dissemination of the scientific findings. It's gotten better over the decade(s), but still needs work. It was egregiously indelicate and tactlessly handled when the findings could only do one thing, impugn a global machinery that 90% of the population had become inextricably dependent upon, generation's deep. Between the head-realm of utter untenable "esoterium" of the science, to ...well, everyone else, its pith needed to be winnowed down to a prose that is both accessible, but 'undeniable' being crucial. What we got, instead, were dire headlines and/or liberalism rank involving moral damnation, cynicism and shame - that was the original framework: excoriation in multi facet ways, attacked the Industrial world's foundation, while offering no alternatives. What they did, rather, was only to alienate themselves from the discussion with their artless approach. I almost consider the climate change crisis as a failure of National and Global Security ... It is becoming clear, there is going to be a huge population correction, either by choice ... or force ( it's like "Gaia" is giving Humanity a choice like "Gozer" in Ghost Busters: "Choose .. Choose the form of the destructor") ... But, humor and metaphor aside, the lack of vision of Nat/Global security et al, in taking the subject seriously decades ago - it's hard to know where the origin of that incredulity was. But, you better believe, Climate Change IS not only a National Security matter at this point, it is in fact a World order event. Intuitively, a goodly amount of it was/is probably related to human limitation? Particularly when facing issues where an "incalculable specter" is completely speculative, humans won't typically register significance. They'll be polite, nodding, "Yeah, it's pretty dire, huh." But no sooner when the source of warning fades away from ear-shot, "...Heh, another one of those -". Compounding further, complacency will replace any amount of immediate arousal of urgency that successfully elicits. Because... 20 years later, no one's life has changed at the rate of melting ice - 'how bad can it be?' Enters the other problem with advocating the gravity of climate change - no one actually feels the weight. In those earlier eras it had no natural, corporeal advocates ... which is to say, those that appeal to the physical senses. You could not really taste it. Nor touch, hear, or smell it. Most important of all, you could not really see it - the most important sense to the human psyche, per all science of neurology and neuroplasticity needed to motivate awareness. Ha, just being droll. Very recently that has been changing. The sight of wild fires and red skies, and smelling their smoke thousands of miles away on the other sides of total continental spaces ...is a little arresting. Pandemic pestilence, to hurricane ravaged coastal regions ... where the atmosphere is handing out Cat 5 tropical cyclones like Pez. Rats pouring out of urban substrata, up stairwells, driven to high ground as flood waters attempt to float cities away ... etc. These will at last appeal the senses. ..And suddenly, media begins to represent life. A zeitgeist of urgency is at last aroused. This is not a accidental cultural modality - it is because climate change is finally be advocated. But during the first 30 .. 50 years of the denial arc of climate change's disaster novel, these evidences were not available to bus stop transience, water coolers in offices, to policy makers and society sculptors; and it will never be available to the sensibility of corporate leading sociopaths. Beyond that limitations, society moves and security-type agencies were never truly connected to, or giving enough weight ( in their on-going practicum ) to the science community. They were always in the room, as a bottom priority. I mean, we've all seen the trope in Hollywood's disaster cinema genre. The Joint Chiefs and higher ranking brass in closed conference room of heated exchanges over the impending doom. A quite mascot dork in wire-rimmed glasses, sits comported in self, shy, afraid, apprehensive socially in that setting to dare express the reality troubling this mere representative of the scientific consortium: despite all preset egos and conceits, you're all going to die. Nothing you guys say or do matters, if your are removed from the equation, is his/her internal monologue repeating like a haunted calling. Climate change, left to its own devices, means extinction. How does the dork raise his/her hand amid that specter and pomp, what is really an intractable circumstance, when limitations in human evolution, which blocks urgency unless it is 'sensed' is purely contemplative, and the brass in that setting can see no further. Yet, what they can hear of and see demonstrate foreign sovereignties pointing their mass destruction... etc, instead. Ha ha, you know the fastest climate change there is, is a hapless planet whose hosting gravitational binding star happens to be only say ... 100 light years away from an adjacent ticking Super Nova. The instant that star Nova's, they have 100 years before they suffer "instant climate change" A time in which they have no idea that it's happened, only that it can - sound familiar? We are in our 100 hours - The reason I'm contemplating aloud is because I have a long standing concern about the Darwinian catch-22 of our species - perhaps ... a philosophical digression into another field: The Fermian Paradox. ...which I wont get into at depth. To paraphrase ( perhaps sloppily), it boils down to a basic contention: 'If the cosmos teems with intelligent life, where are they all?' Now ...some aspect of that may be limited to human perception of design. What I mean there is, we perceive and think of telescopes and electromagnetism as means to communicate across grand distances. But, this may be a limited scope, one biased because ... that's the way we do it. However, alien technologies may not have evolved, or necessarily needed to do so in the same ways and means, that we precisely do. Yet, they are equally ... or more importantly, are vastly more advanced in their capacity to manipulate their environments. The idea here is, whether by our means or theirs, Stage 0 to early Stage 1 civilizations, usually don't manipulate for the better - they tend to blow them selves to kingdom-come before they become apart of any bustling interstellar thoroughfare Sci-Fi fantasy like that of Star Trek. ... Perhaps, too few to qualify a description of 'traffic'. We don't even see or detect the echo off their graves. ...This is a Pandora's box of paradoxical musing for a joint, Southern Comfort, and mild night around a campfire. The self-annihilation model is the most, perhaps intuitive, popular explanation for the Paradox question. But, I see us as a species where Darwinian modes endowed us with the gift of ingenuity and problem solving skills, so capable of engineering wonders that it unwittingly invents its own demise. At least in one case - should that prevail - this climate debacle may be how that all happens - at least for us. And it sucks! Not just because ...well, it means our death for one easy reason. But, it's like watching Grady Little from the living room in the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees. It's the bottom of the 7th inning. The Red Sox are up 5 to 3, in what was pretty clear to the intangibly aware, was a pivotal momentum game in that series. Pedro Martinez is/was hands down the Red Sox ace ... I'll give the guy that. But when Pedro was only 1 out, and the Yankees had guys on 1st and 2nd, it was time to go to the reliever. No - Grady signals the time out... carries his midriff to the mound, and lets Pedro decide if Pedro should come out. Of course... the Red Sox went on to lose the ALCS series. There are those of us that know we are in the 7th inning as a species against this world - and we may as well just be yelling inaudibly at an empty living room.

Oh I know - I have it muted until I see a bat leave a Sox bat, or a Sox pitcher strand runs just to catch some crowd noise but otherwise their hard on the ears.

Uh no ... I was just thinking about this - it won't change my opinion that this game was played by ( really both ) teams playing shit baseball. I mean I guess if your team gets the W ? But it was bad day for the Sox when they were up 7-1 ... Slew of bumbling errors and bad pitching and frankly TB didn't look much better. But also, the previous was supposed to be funny guess not huh

It was like the 'Count Rugen' ( Princess Bride - ) torture chamber game. "...The concept of sucking at Baseball is a century old, only here, we're not sucking Baseball ... we're sucking life. We've just sucked 5 hours of your life away. We hope to one day go as high as a whole regular season, but we really don't know what that would do to you. So, let's just begin with what we have here. And remember - this is for the Schadenfreude of the front office, so please ... be honest. How do you feel?" " ...eewwhahhahhhaaa" " Interesting - "

What a debacle Ha... feel sorry for the duped fans in that caldron of fumbles down there... 4 1/2 hours to end in clown show - it was like on purpose, just to steel 5 hours of lives

o k ...they got 'em on the ropes here. Bring one in -

That's actually an amazing look to me. If one's bag is for a stormy-ass winter. Holy shit! ..and there would be arctic outbreaks in that, too. That's in the mean? If that happens ( imagine pass tenths) it meant there were frequent cross-polar jet anomalies. May have been flop over/PV split events, too. And those cold arrive upon base-line baroclinic gradient that when in rest state is just waiting to be another CC attribution event case... I'd also say/remind ... the HC shit is there. That warm glow from the Iberian peninsula ...all the way around the Atlantic ..through the lower M/A, ...all the way to off the west coast is a non recessive geopotential anomaly. I.e., ain't goin' no where. That is the statically bloated HC. But, over particularly the U.S. ... it would be 'compressed' ... which means, there'd be a tendency for fast velocities ... That can be pain in the ass for other reason - I guess cross the bridge, though. Also ..with the QBO in a favorable phase/projection... you kind of wonder if the Euro's AI engine is maybe influenced by that. The negative phase correlates to a base-line negative Arctic Oscillation. some out there in the wild wild word of winter weather prognostic arts... are using the La Nina ( west biased..) map-over to really amp the ante, but ...I still have miss-giving about either ENSO state's ability to force (as dependably) as they did 50 years ago ... due to the HC expansion/ .. ongoing CC stuff. But, even NCEP has admitted in the autumn outlook for ensuing winters, more than a couple of times in recent decade, that the stochastic nature of the EPO-NAO drape of indexes makes them problematic to warm(cool) outlooks; they can subsume and become dominant in the NP-Lakes .. -NE latitudes across the continent, regardless of the intents and purposes of the honest forecaster lol. So in short, I don't know if we need the map-over when you have three basic statisical packages lending to a cold winter. Solar Multi-decadal polar index neg mode -QBO. The La Nina isn't zero modulator - no. But, it only adds, more or less. I dunno... Seasonal outlooks isn't my thing. I don't typically do them, as I suck ..and don't feel I am right enough to be certain I wasn't lucky. But, I do engage with long lead event/threat assessment with some limited success that I don't believe is pure chance.... Anyway, I just think this winter has cold available to it, over our side of the hemisphere, as a pretty easy call. Degree of extreme? meh .. leave that up to others with more sack then me.

You took the bate ... heh, or technically you didn't, because you didn't read the article? If that title of that article ... carefully sculpted to induce a mouse click or a thumb swipe reaction, were the whole thing, ...than yeah. But when one reads it, they intimate similarly, that it is in certain regions more specifically ( It's not you - media is feckless with ethics. ) It's a stupid title. CNN ... FOX ... BBC ...these "IMC" type media members of the general conglomerate, do that on purpose. They make some statement that is obviously outrageous... and it prays on people's reaction to open their articles. There's an economic engine in doing that ..blah blah.. See how it works? they are not wrong... but they are wrong - because that title is correct, winters are colder. ...they just leave the following out of the title. "This new study indicates that the warming in the Arctic is having a significant impact on winter weather in both North America and East Asia..." Which makes it even dumber is that ... these regions may in fact have warming climates in their winters, but they are slower and less pronounced than in other areas. So they leave the relativity of it out, too.

The last 5 games ... seems they've gotten some pieces back and also Sale .. It seems (maybe) their recent 20 day "slump" was more circumstantial. They recharged mentality with good rookie fill ins, now Sale is back ..and they also got "Schwarber" - not sure how to spell that name... Those two are helping right the moral; I don't think it is coincidence the last 5 games have had a different electricity. And maybe these wins are falling out of that charge. We'll see how this series with Tampa goes. So far today.. wow.

Right ... like we said "...There are times to be aggressive; that's not one of them...." Nomar was good [ probably ..] at determining when to be aggressive. Then there are other times when patience at the plate is needed...to be selective - if one can be..- and not wasting swings at garbage chasing that burns up strikes when your clawing to get back into a game and you got guys on base ahead of you and already 1 out. This is ...just baseball theory 101. The Sox need some of that selection mentality at times, no question.

Not to be a snarky dick ... certainly not to you, per se - But the answer to that 'yelling at us' bold question up there is obvious, and despite the popsicle headache, scientific thesaurus requiring prose that surely follows in any article ...they could sum it up in one sentence: Climate change doesn't happen linearly ... Slightly more expanded version: it happens in frets and juts and starts... Sometimes... seemingly linear increases(decreases), too, but all of which will also be interceded by episodic regression back to some prior state, ...a time in which irresponsible mentalities will [predictably ..] attempt to use the slide back as leveraged counter-arguments, until the next bursts of change takes place and proves the longer vision still resembles change. We some all those up, they equal +2 C over the course of 100 years... And in the case of the ASI ... years where the Sept nadir is lower than other years, may also go a decade where the nadirs are uncomfortably low, but not as bad. ... but some year IS coming where it will be worse That ...in summary, is why - Now ...I am not attempting to excoriate an article as agenda-biased without having read the thing ... it's jut that the above answer to that bold question, in a vacuum, is clad.

It's interesting how diametrical that impact has been when considering the middle latitude of North America, too - While we are in some - perhaps - historic warm season rain anomaly, there is a surge in awareness underway in national lime-light media about the dwindling/ .. plausible extinction of the Colorado River. From economics to sociological ( and their subjectivity of one another ..), to the ecological impacts, how it all relates to CC being of course couched in the science and sentiment of the zeitgeist.. included I was just looking at the satellite's mid day hi res visible full loop and it is remarkable, that you could leave Des Moines Iowa and travel to San Franciso, ... if you could do it all in one day at 200 mph driving speed ( lol ..) you would never see a single cloud of any categorical type spanning that entire span, nor searching 800 miles in either side of that line... You know... I hate to say... the only way to really correct that "geological apocalypse" - as appears to be looming in the near future - is to have us ridge out all winter... Warm and never snow ... or rain much at all, and be balmy. While a semi permanent trough relentlessly bites into Great Basin region, and siphons off the GW exaggerate PWAT footprint of the total tropospheric miasma, and does what CC does best, in that area - dump their 50 year quota in a single season. That's probably what will happen...eventually.. I mean maybe not exactly that way - but...that's what this CC shit was modeled to do, and is proving true: it corrects violently in huge staggering proportions, then, ... the region beaten within inches of a species diaspora ...certainly stressed, goes the other way for another 4 decades or whatever.

Outta left field Monday morning MJO quarterback: In short, strong phase 5 should equal at a minimum a cooler tendency, Lakes/OV/MA/NE. Advil version ...Gotta remember to check your seasonal composites. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ The Sept-Oct-Nov ('SON') correlation with the MJO suggest modestly cooler than normal for the eastern Lakes/OV/upper MA and NE regions. Right now the CPC's forecast plotted, GEFs members strengthen the wave between late phase 3 and early Phase 6. There's a lot of spread, but every member is robust. The mean is towering the wave magnitude above median, and given the integral beneath the arc of the wave trajectory through the RMMs is so large, it would be spending a considerable amount of time there. In theory, longer means adding more ballast/momentum to the super synoptic 'gestalt' of the circulation. The EPS has this 'bloody show' but not nearly as robustly. Still, a blend of the two clusters supports a medium wave dynamic spanning said spaces. Offsets and philosophy: Personally I have noticed that MJO presentation has become less obvious in recent decades ... perhaps owing ( conjecture ) to the same reasons Pacific SSTs/ENSOs also have become less coherently represented. Hypothesis: I believe the expansion of the HC is engulfing the trigger points where these OLR/convective forcing would typically interact and force R-wave distribution at mid latitudes. Both the ENSO and MJO are equatorial phenomenon with amorphous boundaries. They extend some 15 to 20, N vs S of the Equator across their respect anomaly periods. The sustaining HC ( which is also an amorphous boundary where it terminates with the westerlies) has expanded well beyond the former. Metaphor, when the sun ages another some 4 billion years ..it will begin to swell into the red giant phase. When that happens, it will bloat to the orbit of Venus ... perhaps even Earth .. HUGE. The orbits of these worlds will no longer be relevant .. because, they will be inside the sun. Most likely, disintegrating and becoming part of the solar guts that will soon after, eviscerate out into a planetary nebula. When that happens ...they no longer will have any gravitational influence on the surround orbital plain that they once controlled. The 'HC' in this metaphor is the red giant phase. The ENSO is Venus, the MJO is Earth. ...just in case this cartoon isn't obvious... But in geophysical concepts, because the the Hadley Cell has grown to a point where it is homogenizing the atmosphere [ perhaps ] too far N and S, these no longer can interact with the gradient of the mid latitudes. If they are not apart of that gradient, they do not exert on the flow ... It is 'as though' they no longer exist, being the point. But they still do... Keep in mind and spirit of objective scientific conjecture, we are not talking absolute switches. Nature is a matter of less vs more as modulating influences in any given system. I am not in a position to delegate a team of grad students into gathering data and juggling derivatives on white boards, nor do I have access very readily ( or time ..) to engage in these pursuits my self. I am saddled by life like anyone. But, I have a gift for making broad stroked insights ..and having to then wait for those who do have wherewithal to inevitably release their formulaic works ... demonstrating that said insights were essentially correct. This kind of station in life is what I refer to as the KosmiK dildo, or the "Michigan J. Frog" effect. The irony is, I am not only originally from Michigan, I bear some resemblance for the shear fact that I've never been kissed by a princess... It's funny how that works. whatever...I know I'm right about this ..better than 50%. The HC is simple f'ing up the mid last Century correlations with these air and sea, Equatorial teleconnector fields. Another CC attribute.

Not a huge fan of swinging at the first pitch when you got 'em on the ropes with man on 2nd and 3rd and one out. They keep over and over and over again doing this ... ending up in a pitcher's count ... then it's onward to leaving said men on 2nd and 3rd, wasted. They just keep doing this- and these pitches they are swinging at are usually chased ...questionable as strikes..etc... Stop swinging at the first pitch assholes! There are times to be aggressive; that's not one of them. Make the f'er pitch

I've never seen this before. The GFS was too far NE across the Basin in the early days...but by D7 lead it corrected.. In all, the blend NAILED Larry's track guidance from 8 days out. Other than very trivial nuances that really don't mean anything - there's not been substantive deviation. There were a couple days of left correction but in the time, those were not nearly enough to matter or really change expectations. Amazing. Track guidance in practice and science has certainly improved over the years but I wonder if this is just an easy scenario for the technology, too. We are not typically that confidence in a D8 position over the MDR - lol

I will say, day-10 Euro range uncertainties, notwithstanding... +22 to +23C 850 mb temperatures over Michigan on September 15 is rare. To mention ...nested in ~ +2 SD circumvallate region that really encompasses Iowa to New York beneath the 40th parallel. It's eye candy for warm weather weather enthusiasts, if nothing else. I'd like the see the EPS and GEFs means not going the other way with the non-hydrostatic heights. I opined a while ago and won't get read ( tl ; dr ) ..etc... But, with evidence to speeding up the flow in the ambient hemisphere, already ... I don't think these notions are stable.