Typhoon Tip

This became identifiable really over the last 4 or 5 hours on sat too A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds is located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This gale area is forecast to move north-northeastward for the next day or so, and could acquire some subtropical characteristics before it merges with a frontal system by late Tuesday. The extratropical low is then expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coasts on Wednesday, bringing rain and wind impacts to portions of those areas. By midweek the low is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. coast, and could again acquire some subtropical characteristics by the end of the week while it moves eastward or southeastward over the warmer waters of the central Atlantic. For more information on this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

It is .. almost wonder if this whole scenario .. .with its vague at best, lower baroclinic mechanical forcing, is sorta exposing the models for why they suck - it's all over the place with shit into the fan spray

That's why this looked quasi severe prone in the Euro, three days ago ... It had that warm sector engulfing the whole region from mid VT-NH and south... It was then carving the S/W underneath that, which if that ever took place would have been about as extreme a helicity scenario as can be imagine without actually already being inside 2 mile wide wedge ... ha - No but, the Euro did pretty badly at 72 to 96 hours lead on today's depiction, wrt the position of this lead warm frontal position - which is probably more fairly a stationary BD front looking at the behavior of wind and sat. The GFS and NAM nailed this - Euro is suspect in hidden ways and seems to get away with shit...

It's almost comical ... The 'fix' then this ? - it's like, "Oh yeah - we'll see" and I guess we will either way. It could be a scenario where assessing performance is ultimately difficult and prone to "unfair" ... The models may not know what they are doing in picking lows and where/how deep they will ultimately be. This has been a buck-shot run-to-run poor continuity already, wrt to that aspect of where/what/how. This may be a deal where there is potential to generate but getting the other stuff wrong will limit that potential.

Jesus, Scott - ur getting obsesses with that serial killer

Personally ... I'm having a tough time with that. It's believing, when looking at the present obs/Satellite on-going trajectories, ...that is is going to take place. The utter lack or zero zygote identifiably even existing down off the Carolinas or off Cape Hatteras, then having one suddenly emerge, then mature to tropical storm strength over this immediate now to 36 hours .. I suggest that is all convective feedback driven - again, because this system lacks a lower tropospheric focal point(s)/axial for low. It's almost like the convection genesis lows are given carte blanche But we'll see I guess.

Frankly, you're not asking my opinion but ALL the models have been warring their own continuity of this thing, spraying surface lows all over a more generalized cyclostrophic box S of LI... It's an easy meteorological assumption as to why. This lacks a baroclinic gradient below mid levels... badly starved. The thermodynamics of the sounding over RUT VT are probably not significantly enough different than Cape May NJ ...or not hugely ( enough) different than the eastern tip of Long Island. ..it's a big slab of rotted CC autumnal air with a warm front that is - yeah - detectable but when that 500 mb wind max/S/W cuts underneath, it'll frontalysis and wash out. Which leaves pretty much no mechanics to focus/anchor a surface low. Think 2005 December. It was coherent where that low would bomb as the meso models had this sick thermal packing along and just S of LI, to the tune of some 20C across 50 naut miles. The low as going to track along that low level nearly upright frontal wall. This system is opposite that coherency. This doesn't have a low level frontal tapestry like that. It's why the model behavior .. The GFS is really just picking whatever thunder storm cluster - first come first serve - it sees in the fractals out around 24 hours, and uses that - but those initiation points vary every run. That's basically what this is. It's a lot of mid level potential over top a missing low level baroclinic instability... Part of it makes me humor inside that this is "over blown" - pun hopefully annoying ... because with out a stronger low level frontal "kink" points and elevated slopes to force UVM to be more proficient, that lowers the evac proficiency to drill a deeper surface pressure result. We're getting deeper results anyway ...but I almost surmise those are other physics left to operate with poor constraints. Little hyper fractal lows ...again, then picks one. It certainly is fun fun fun though. Crazy and entertaining ... We've earned it after that last 60 days of "Ishtar" caliber weather cinema lol

Yet the tide predictions for coastal Mass are actually subordinate for them two days ... Woulda been interesting to see what this sea sucker would do on top of local 4" of sea level rise and a New Moon, huh -

There's a moment when that occurs, just past dawn ... very fleeting. It only happens once if ever in a given autumn. This year.. not yet so far. The antecedent days features less wind. Then, a hyper efficient radiator night takes place... Decoupled and dead calm, it's 24 by dawn ... You step out side and the only thing you hear ...other than the distant white noise of arising society, is the flicking sound of the cold-air dead-fall just raining down. It's best if yellows and saffrons of orange and red hues, but this will do this with any stage, too. In some sense of a more discrete cause for this: maybe moisture in the leaf stems freezes, and as such ... it expands 12% with phase change. That expansion at last severs the last of any fibers that were fixing the leaf stem to twig, and so the leaf cuts lose. You can tell later that afternoon if this occurred, because you can see the old layer of dullard-colored leaf fall underneath a dappling of leafs still having their eye-pop. It's like a built in guarantee to deleaf the foliage, should the winds of autumn seldom return that year.

Keep in mind those are 2 mb isobaric intervals. Index finger rule works usually 90+% or so … 1mb ~= 1kt. Maybe 1020 delta 982 mb = 38 kt middle BL jet and let wind products and experience do the rest.

It could. … I am really just trying to raise awareness. -NAO’s over the western limb like this one are correlative with suppressed/southern cyclone routes. Meanwhile … model runs trickling in doing so/adjusting deserves consideration. But this is a storm developing toward the E. If it doesn’t stall/retrograde it may not be as bad for NYC even if south. I suspect ACK and the eastern end of LI are getting whiplashed. As far as coastal MA the wind/925 mb jet appears synoptic PGF mechanized … CCB but it’s odd vert sounding. This system may in fact rapidly transition into a hybrid, particularly in a NAM-like way S solution coup de etat … Im leery of Euro

That said ...should the present Euro run prevail.. suspect the best wind along the northern cyclonic slope would incur as that 970 mb low is retrograding W along or just immediately astride/under L.I.

The trend south may not be finished... Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that. It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage -

Subtle trends to ablate the higher QPF as this crosses now into the outer short range. Also, more than subtle trend in the American guidance to suppress the latitude just enough to spare the region the heaviest combination of wind and QP numbers... The 12z GFS really only misty rains and winds the region with the heaviest CCB core banding just clipping SE zones. I will draw attention that this is a west limb -NAO regime we are in during this thing, so a southern corrections are plausible. Even the Euro's hour 84 pivot SE - rather new in that guidance ... - may be a nod. We are also still in new version/release ... hm.. This may end up being a pedestrian impactor. Also, bearing in mind, big ticket phenomenon being normalized heading into short terms is an issue all guidance seem to have trouble with - it's been very noticeable over the past 5 years to the extent where it is almost dependable .. you wack some 30% off the top 'magnificence' of these D7 juggernauts - based purely on that rather dependable error, having this coastal/off-shore storm system end up a little weaker than the Euro 968 mb low from two days ago ...might not be a bad expectation, either.

Oh boy. This is either model feedback bs or the attribution buzzards are gonna be circlin

It’s a hurricaneaster

I thought it was warm secluded but that phase behavior fold back in after the fact. Huh

NAM may be too far N-W with that surface/lower troposphere but as is ...that 18z run is an interesting QPF scenario .. hearkens to 2006 May - though not synoptically analogous per se but the stalled CCB/WCB intersect that elevating the later into a back bent/TROWALing, bear some similarity nonetheless. And, over-top a forced ascent up-slope flow into the eastern whites would probably double that QPF it's already painting if that evolved that way. Thing about 2006 is that it was maybe 2 or 3 weeks out of cap melt and the shed was still heavy when that stalling/similarity took place. So.. prooobably doesn't result the same but ... at this time of year, the October variant may also be operating off a denser PWAT inject so -

It's interesting if not predictable watching that later 'big red spot' vortex start dampening out like that. I wondered this yesterday, if that thing might start devolving/morphing into something else. I mean it's not atypical for a double dong mid range to start favoring one end or the other as dominant ... Maybe that's happening here. Also, tough to ignore the emerging PNA look to the extended. EPS and GEFs appear in line for at least modest +PNAP, if perhaps in spite of La Nina. Although as we've noted, La Nina's tend to front load so ...heh, maybe we're on the verge of a rare Thanks Giggedy to Xmas winter ...followed by a January thaw+ CC signal, ...followed by a big blizzard bust in early February, before the annual 83 F on Feb 15 - yup ... that's the seasonal outlook. Forget the dissertations of peregrinated graphs and prose, and just go with that one run-on sentence.

As a winter storm enthusiast about to reentry into that season ... one should be happy that we are "setting a precedence for coastals" earlier on. At least per may experience - seasons that do that tend to parlay toward more of it as the cold season maturates. That may chap the asses of La Nina -centric seasonal footed outlooks... but it doesn't have to be true every autumn into winter, either.

Heh... yeah, different animal

This thing is also jumping around in the Euro guidance, ranging from ALB to southern NH to SE of ISP in the last 3 runs. Haven't detailed the other guidance.. But the lack of lower tropospheric baroclinicity isn't given the low genesis an anchor point ...the models are getting chaotic about where to put it over time.

that'd flood but not like Ida cinema .. . Guessin' not 14" of rain in 5 hours or whatever that was...

I think I'm losing my sense of autumn typology - what's it 'sposed to be like in late October --> November again? they've been so f'ed up the last decade. I mean, 4-6" snow'tobers, then 80 two-weeks later in November. But it's not snowing this October - that can't be right! Days get shorter with day-light and all, and maybe the air gets gradually cooler at some point - if I just focus on that, and ignore the climate land-mines going off around these reconnoiters toward winter. But then what of it... we'll just arrive into yet again, a disappointing shredded atmosphere of sonic speed commercial airline traffic in an overall HC compression gradient that rinse-and-repeat, at best, only weirdly fits whatever ENSO was leading. Finally, the polar wave # meanders around the boreal hemisphere to gives us our two shots at real storm event that only splits and gives Brian 45" in 9 hours, while the rest of us cryo-dust-storm our way to rationalized glory. It feels as certain as the portends prior to that Red Sox "forfeit" last night