Typhoon Tip

Those highs have sped up in guidance like 90% of the times when starting D5 <-- inwards... It'll be interesting if this one bucks that solidly dependable trend -

seems like the models are selling a scenario where we get these Lakes bombs, followed by a low end snow here, rolls right back into a warm up and Lakes bomb... rinse repeat

Man, eastern MN is setting up for a Younger Dryas blizzard with that -28 C air sitting right there and getting sucked into that circulation like that. How about wind gusts to 55 mph, temperature of -15 F, and shattered snow dust down to 20 feet visibility blue dimming

Ha - I didn't' actually tho ... It was a jest to encourage groaning lol.

Just fired up a threat thread ...

That ICON model likes the D5.5

I've been wondering about that too ... but, the stall in it's track...loop back and rapid decay, is not a full recurve ... I wonder how much of it's flux is really getting into westerlies compared to the idealized model. As an afterthought... Recurving west Pac TC's is typical of either about to, or in, late Phase 6 - early 2 side of the RMM/MJO wave guide. What is interesting, is what Ray and I were just musing. The present MJO is indeed in those phases, but, it's not in the Northern Hemisphere's side of the Equator ( according to document/publication). But, since this Nyotoh isn't 'technically' succeeding in recurving... it's weird - In any case, the reason that is stalling there and not actually succeeding in smearing up on into the westerlies, is because the WPO is out of phase. That's related to the highly coupled circulation mode coming off of Asia from what I'm seeing - which blows big donkey balls...because I believe until that happens, we have to bootleg winter appeal here because the other major telecon players are not really going to be in a hurry until we can get that to break-down and send the roulette wheel rotating around into a different wave # ...

Just my 2 cents: nothing's changed since the observations posted two day or so ago. The telecon's ( GEFs fwiw - ) are empirically behaving with acceptable error - looks (~) like > 80 some odd % ... which is fine for < D10. That all means it is helping determinism to employ at this time. The MJO ...being south bias of the Equator, probably is less factoring over the next two weeks... ( as an aside, I still believe personally that the MJO's forcing ability on the mid latitudes is being partially absorbed by the HC shit.. but that is secondary/after consideration to what Ray and I was just discussing - ) So, all else being fair and unfair... +AO/+NAO/-PNA ( and it is noted, the individual members are unusually agreeing in magnitude - oy!), ...normally, that would not be the preferred converging telecon signals for winter weather enthusiasts, to put it diplomatically. BUT, I believe this 10 days has to be adjusted due to the fact that the PV is pretty significantly geographically biased over our quatra-hemispheric scope. That's loaded the Can shield with -20 to -30 C 850 mass roughly 2/3rds the size of the contiguous U.S., and is packing the 850 mb thickness gradient right down to 45 N ... The immense velocities above that at 500 mb ...it's all part of the compression, too. The D6 flat wave next week ... First of all, that is remarkable that all operational guidance ( except the UKMET which I have not seen ) are, with this exception of meaningless noise ) essentially handling incredibly fragility with that. The flow leading, around ..., and after it, is is like a flea between two elephant asses terrified for its lift.. It seems the slightest alteration in flow that powerful would have an equally handsome impact on embedded features, so being able to maintain that little weakling is pretty delicate handling there. Interesting. But, that sensitivity works both ways...Despite the cutters ...any one of them can modulate along the polar boundary, and because the gradient is large, smaller adjustment N or S in the track streams ... Lot goin' on folks.

Oh I see - sure ... 'indirectly' -as in...after all physical processes have finished restoring, and the total system state is at rest ( entropy), the HC's scalar dimension is what it is. And what it is or has become rather, bigger than it was in 1980 - Think of it is as 'after the heat has been added to the integral'

separate matter entirely ...

Something like that I guess. heh... But the momentum distribution - I suspect .. - matters. You know, whether it's straddles the Equator on both sides, or is biased N vs S..etc. I am not absolutely certain that entirely limits the other hemisphere from exertion when it does, but I suspect that is the case. As an indirect/fwiw the PDF's author goes out of their way to mention the S bias and it doesn't seem logical for them to do so if it didn't matter.. ha. Anyway, flux moves polar-ward from the MJO latent heat release axis as the wave and its attended convective mass(es) propagate along - not toward and through the Equator - sort of think of it as an atmospheric asymptote

The MJO's wave is propagating on the southern side of the Equator

What is the state of northern Eurasia/Asian cryisphere ?

According to the weekly PDF/publication that summarizes the MJO ( found at the RMM url), ... I wouldn't be inclined to think this apparent emerging wave strength does much for the Americas. The ballast of the wave momentum, according to them ... is over the southern lapse region of the MJO latitudes. In other words, ...it's not really intuitive that it is forcing much on the north side ... Which, as an aside, I think the MJO suffers do to HC absorption too... The wave may be damped by La Nina circulation foot-print in these phase 6-8's, ..so seeing this one emerge is interesting in itself, - I get that. But, neither may be as effective in forcing the wave distribution of the westerlies in present climate circumstance/era.

Your ICON model loads a SWFE snow CNE up with implications for at least some ice inter SNE at D 4.5. Not a particularly big fan of this model… But it underscores the point I was just making I feel

Mm there’s a fly in the ointment for an out-and-out warm shits pattern though. Variance is getting rather extreme across the mid latitudes of the continent, N-S across that mean polar boundary. Your mixing and snowing within 50 miles on the N side … nearing 60 on the S. Moreover, it’s vacillating like an unmanned firehouse every other run. The reason for that is because (we discussed this earlier ) the +AO/ strong PV structure is displacing/biased axial node(s) toward our side of the hemisphere. That’s a crucial bias; it changes the map a bit. It’s compressing the height south and offering all kinds of confluence contention … also pressing cold air unusually far south under very fast Westerly mlv jets. If it were not for that we probably would just go inferno… but at least day 5 through 11 or 12, I don’t think it’s going to be as cut and dry as a straight up Pacific dominant pattern. It could … sure. But there is hope for winter enthusiasts.

D10 looks unrealistic ( Euro ..) but that overall between D5 and the end of the run ...that's a wild 5 days of changeability. Much in concert with what we were just discussing, with a very fast, gradient saturated environment between southern Canada and the OV... D7 is a SWFE --> Miller B that happens so quickly that there's really no time to change that event from wintry to straight rain in the interior - ...but christ details at this range for that type of synoptics is utterly futile.

I would rather not experience two light-moderate events where I am being "de-membered" ... but we're all in here for our own reasons, I suppose. kidding, but you know...some of it has to do with being used to getting snow earlier in recent winters ( I wonder). One gets that 4 out of 6 years of goodies, they kind of start wondering where it is when that inevitable seventh year may come back to normal. I can tell you growing up between Michigan and SNE and throughout my adult years, ... man, the 1980s were absolutely butt bruising trying to get a white x-mas done. Not because of Grinch this or that either. It was like planetary-screwed... It just didn't kick in until after xmas, and I was told by High School teachers ( dating myself - ) that I February was our big month ... and from what I had experience through the early 1990s that was closer to realistic. Thru that time, we only Currier&Ived maybe 2 white xmas ( I think ). Otherwise, a lot of brown ground ...sometimes frozen ground, Decembers of boredom lore - I betcha we wouldn't be having this discussion if this was 1988. We would be making winter predictions for Jan - Mar.

Ha ha ha... well, keep in mind, ... we're sort of in making chicken salad out of chicken shit mode here. It's like, what we got to work with.... but it at least it isn't zero. Namely, the biasing of the PV on our side facets. Remove that, and we may go December 2006 really fast. Cross that bridge... Until then, this is misleadingly balmy ( as in, not as much so as it may look at a mere glance):

Well... the current D10 EPS ( 00z last night ...) polar stereographic layout is a whopping +AO... But, the PV is off center wrt the geographic NP... That sort of skews the extent of the positive anomaly down a few decimals or even a whole SD because the AO domain geography is fixed, and then the EOFs are calculating the atmospheric aspect as they move around that fixed 'umbrella' ...I think it extends down to 67.5 N but I'll have to look that up again ( I always forget needling things like that...). Anyway, point is, ...it's a powerful +AO in that D10 layout, and since it is on our side of the hemisphere ( biased ), that avails/enters a colder look to the NP but warm in the MA... as you noted, the gradient between the two is rather extreme. As far as what it takes to 'bridge' - well... for one, lets weaken the PV/ lower the Arctic Oscillation. The GEFs evolve the hemisphere similarly, but skewed/biased west overall slightly of the EPS. I don't see the EPS beyond D10 - Scott I think mentioned that week 1 of the Weeklies may segway off that range...etc... But, the 12z GEFs layout is similar to the 00z re this subject.. In either EPS or GEFs ... it is interesting because both have this +AO displacement look, with the lower nadir height node(s) off center the pole toward our side. The GEFs in fact does this right out 300+ hours. In either case, the PV is in tact, more so than not. I don't know if that means no winter-like corrections to the dailies, though. That crucial displacement/bias on our side, means confluence ( to me ...) episodic across lower Manitoba-Ontaria-Quebec. The storm track will run up under that and you're right - could be you know like 15C variance at 850 across 200 miles of baroclinic zone as it probably rolls waves along it. Almost wonder if if 'icing' chance are above climate... But, if end on on the south side, we go above normal ..big time. The mid latitudes are f'ed hard from the Date Line to off the EC, so ... this subtlety about the AO may be the only hope.

You know what ... I get why your saying this buuut... storms have had a tendency to over produce. In fact, it's been getting rather dependable. If a storm looks middling, you get more points embedded that majored. If a storm looks major, you get like what happened to Brian last December...etc... you know? So, if Dec were to punt even up there... three storms could quota the winter norms inside of a 12 days in January, and you'd still have that perfunctory March yard stick storm up there.

Yeah... and like Will mused, not the whole way ...but much of the time. This has been happening more frequently since the early 2000s. As an aside - which I find totally cool man ... - there has been recorded, a marked increase in near or at record air-land relative speeds set over the oceanic basins in the last 15 or so years. I mean, think about this physically ...a 60 ton aircraft has to fly at a certain speed to maintain enough lift to offset gravity and keep in suspended at intended altitude. If not... those on the aircraft tend to 'Value Jet,' and they don't want that - ..heh.. Anyway, keeping it simple. For head winds, this creates lift at relative throttle position, because as the aircraft moves into a headwind, that arithmetically moves mass over the wings that the engines don't need to provide by forward thrust. When going the opposite direction, this becomes negative, and the aircraft has to thrust more - fly faster relative to the ground - in order to push the same mass over the wings and create that lift. SO, ... west to east flights have been haulin' ass. There have been like ...3.5 hour LaGaurdia to Heathrow London flights. It's been pretty interesting.

Boom! exactly dude - we laugh uneasy, because that was a problem. In fact, I know why that happened last year. ...or at least I really have a hypothesis. Opposite of what is happening now ( since Nov 16 -> how long it lasts, notwithstanding). Something I have been noticing as of late ... the lion's share of colder height anomalies over this polar stereographic perspective have been over our side of the Hemisphere... Below is the D10 EPS mean just to make the point, not a forecast. And it may be too much of a good thing so to speak. This was the other direction ...I think the western Pacific through Siberia was very deep in heights last January, ...during that 2.5 week span in which we saw gradient become perhaps too relaxed as you intimated... Why? who the heck knows...but the 'global wave #' might have had something to do with where the PV tended to slip off the axis - if you will - and meander to where it did back then, and recently.

Perhaps ... perhaps not. But the specter of winter 'abeyance' is certainly there and trending... I realize you were probably answering back to the prior poster's pessimism/hyperbole/jest to some degree. But ... that AA phase of the Pacific is showing up in both the EPS and GEFs after Dec 8-10 pretty brightly. There are differences between the two, in how the westerlies orient upon approach to the western continental forcing, but by and large, I've seen big warm ups begin that way. Rising heights N-NE of Hawaii, when both 55 N and 30 N are fully integrating ...doesn't typically go too well for winter enthusiasts over eastern N/A. With modest negative anomalies in the EPO domain space? The prior posters 'hyperbole' is understandable if not necessary. I mean I don't give a shit... I really don't. I see it objectively and just say bluntly what things looks like. Of the two below, I'd personally weight the PNA as 80% of the forcing ballast in determining precipitation and temperature anomaly distribution, and let the NAO modulate like Robbin in the Batman relationship. Lol. Anyway... What I'm seeing is that the verification (vague green curve ) has been well-enough aligning wrt the bolder black line, which is the verification. So, the telecons have been verifying reasonably well. So what can we glean from that? Good question - ..we just got done musing in that Winter thread, how these telecons have seemed less able to drive said P and T distribution, as a recurring confidence rattler. I think we just suffered that, actually... If you look back along these respective curves above, note November 16 through very recently: in that span, we saw a rise in the PNA, and a tandem fall in the NAO. Normally, ( in 1980 ..heh ), you move the PNA from -.5 SD to +1.5 ( or a near total index change of 2 SD range), there is some kind of larger scale synoptic distorting perturbation requiring a restoring event - ...that means, a storm lol. Yet, these were ineffective index modalities - which I find interesting. I think we got the cold, part of that.. My personal suspicion is that the observable base line wind velocity, which really in theoretical arguments means the heights are compressed ... , as being pretty culpable in limiting how individual wave spaces behavior, can interact/force against that background canvas - it gets really heavy Meteorologically having to take someone through vorticity equations ...but if the ratio between the larger synoptic value, and the individual wave-space value, approaches 1 ...that means there is less ability for cyclogenic responses in the atmosphere. Well...anyway, ... when the flow is compressed, it is fast, and this robs away from the small scale impulses. 'nother way to look at it, the above +PNA/-NAO movement was below the threshold, a threshold that requires greater anomaly magnitudes when the flow is compressed.

For general readership: If perhaps more so for numerical convenience than anything else, NOAA climate convention situates December cleanly as a winter month. Not intending or desiring to get into any qualms about it ( I realize the discussion is personally skewing - ), but, winter = DJF, spring = MAM, summer = JJA, autumn = SON. Obviously human conventions vs the year-to-year atmospheric behaviors seldom align. It "seems" like folks bend opinions based on the advent of entertaining model solutions, and/or whether there is snow of air and ground, as metric for winter. If people use "snow" as a winter determining metric, then some years winter starts in February... Other years, in October. We could either go that route, and just have it annulled every year when winter happened to begin and end, if ever. Or, we can be grown-ups and just except that winter = variability that ranges from shit we like to shit we hate, and shit in between, and that's just life - but this latter tact takes the fun and 'purpose' out of this engagement, huh. I'm sure Will or someone of the like could crunch the numbers and figure for the last 200 years. Create some sort of mean snow-density graph. My hunch for NJ would result like Jan 14 to Feb 20 as a scratch conjecture. SNE is oh Dec 26 to Mar 6 say. NNE might be Dec 3 to Mar 24 - 'Course, the last 20 years probably stand out as a disruption - more so than any other 20 year period in history? One wonders...