Typhoon Tip

Nice Del Marva signal on this GFS … … only have to wait 350 hrs but it’s there nonetheless. Heh always a sure bet. Lol In any event this run- fwiw – really likes the idea of pretty much a sweeping guard change at a principal level. Doesn’t include details in backyards

I tend to agree here. I offer there is a chance for wintry appeal after the 15th … pretty much not changing that for now.

Whether the charts have a big glorious EPOridge perfectly and idealy modulating into a positive PNA is just that: that’s the idealize model. Less often does one see the idealize model play out. FWIW, what I’m looking at over the next two weeks is a classic evolution towards a pattern shift; you first get a tendency for these things to dig into the west/high latitudes …and then the natural progression you end up situating aspects further east - that’s all we’re looking at here. So yes it can get warm in the foreground vs much colder later but …can also just do a tepid version of that variance …we just have to wait and see.

For aspects other than merely cold one should rather not see blocks that big on a chart anyway… Blocks that big enter into dreaded tendencies for “compression suppression” blue balls … It’s in the modulation that your lube ups lurk

I think there's a chance we get a big winter dose after the 15th this month... Sort of back-peddling to where I was 3 weeks ago. The difference is that the NE Pac handling has been showing a 2ndary delta in the models - you have to compare a single interval and go back 8 or 10 or 20 cycles and click that same interval relative to cycle like a slide show. It looks like a progressive L/W train moving across oceans and country, linked around to eastern Asia ... All the models have been hiding this this. It's like they running a secondary movement in the 2ndary derivative. Kind of fascinating actually... I originally liked the aft half of the month, because as I posted back then... there is a longer curve statistical convergence: Nina, solar, and season trend, all unique contributors, all suggesting we should end up with a early performer this year... Whether that parlays a single week with an event, or 45 days worth ... not withstanding ( I don't do seasonal outlooks). But this kind of outlook suggestion is a no-brainer - I was just waiting on the models to suggest they know this..well - can't argue the last 5 days worth of NE Pac handling seems like they got the memo. That much -EPO ... getting bumped E in time as I said above, will load Canada precariously with cold - whether that is seasonally anomalous for them or not... doesn't matter. It would be close by and enough for us. It's after Halloween folks! CC or not... it's fair game until Easter

So yeah it’s easier to do bigger warm extremes after October because of the nature of Earth seasonality and the sun and all that … Still, I don’t recall ever seeing a D5 product throw out a +22 like the 00z MEX Mind you… These numbers are modulated more more so out in time by climatology so you know you’re getting a high-Fi signal in order to overcoming climate and still push that number that high. That was always a conventional wisdom. I don’t know if the MOS is still “complicated” that way. Either way … it is what is. Meanwhile the Nam is utterly clueless about what’s going on here; definitely exposes that model as not having the proper heating parameters in the boundary layer which maybe integrates into its fucked upness overall. Regardless…. It really should be parameterize properly regardless of the time of the year. 60 at BED on Saturday. Okay … anyway the max 74 on Sunday for both Fitchburg and Bedford sorry Nashua… probably flirts with 80 ..81 provided the models right about the other parameters

For the audience that cares to monitor teleconnectors… folks should be aware that a negative EPO bursts lag-time in that direction; it tends to progress into a positive PNA as the natural progression, leaving the EPO more neutralized in the wake. - that’s why repetitive negative EPO oscillation is more effective at getting bitter cold air further south east because that relay becomes largely hemispheric mechanical. Speaking to the idealize models that is …obviously these things have nuances and anomalies in behavior along the way too

first shot at a wintry synoptic event before the 20th ...

Euros starting to catch on to what I was talking about yesterday that I thought the EPO might start trending more east… Just based on experience with the models over the years and other tl;drs

The Gfs model seems to really get like a harmonic feedback that amplifies onto itself over extended time…it’s like watching “galloping Gert” It seems to collect all these smaller perturbations in the atmosphere into gradually increased sizes ..,until it’s aggregated into these giant planetary wave lengths. By D10s just basically tends to an amplitude bias. I recommend that the warm spell which may actually end up fantastically so by the way… between Thursday and next Tuesday is legit. The overnight models en masse really coalesced around that synopsis …offering very little deviation or room for differing possibilities. After that? I wouldn’t trust GFS at all - not that anybody is …

And for what it’s worth … your point is clad. It’s not gonna be 75 to 81 for very long in November … at least until 2064

Yeeah tl;dr wrote about that bias earlier in the day. Tru

This is the standard interpretation lens, regardless. Even holding it against the author when the interpretation inevitably fails to resemble, when in reality said author was in fact remarkable prescient lol Simon and Garfunkel “…a man will hear what he needs to hear, and the rest he will throw away” Ooh just makes you proud to be a member of this species huh

I’ll take a -PNA undercutting a -EPO any day

She inherited her brother’s surgically altered nose

If you want to survive in here… you can’t take it personally. Lol

I don't have any problem assuming warmer than that when looking over these synoptic metrics; the correction vector is pointing up wrt interpolate machine guidance. Ex, this happened prior to the big warmth, Nov 5-11th 2020 - few may recall that week because the region was still in after gawk over that 4-6" Oct 30 snowfall. But we were 76 to 82 ..84 regionally for some 4 or 5 days-worth of that span. I distinctly recall the MEX/ or any bar graphs having trouble seeing it, too. They were 68ing us - but this can probably checked.. don't kill me. heh. I've seen this before though. Climo application to those number sets makes those products questionable. The 500 mb pattern comparison then and now are vaguely similar.

28 to 71 here (so far) delta 43 largest in years. Have seen 39, two 37s and a handful of 34 .. 35s 43

Hm... I think you meant, 'slower' so it can be a Snower' It's a lala fantasy but just for sake of discussion, that would end around miss SNE and clobber Maine most likely there -

Heh

unfortunate aspect about Novie warmth in that particular product is that climatology will destroy it before the numbers hit the output file -

Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning. 28 at 8 am, 64 at noon. 36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing. Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days. heh.

28 to 61 so far... nuts

wow, 28 to 50 in 3 hours. Not bad... but ORH is 60 f'um one?!! zonk

Ha ha... this is like new inductee night at AA in here sometimes... "Hi, my name is Mike, and I'm a winterholic" "HI Mike, mike mike", over lapping, fading.