Typhoon Tip

Questions remain as to whether the wave momentum and related latent heat fluxing/forcing in the dispersion model will remain south of the Equatorial band, however. Through last week, the publications by CPC had an ongoig mantra implying that forcing would be primarily 'south based' Primer blah blah: The problem with that ( for the N. Hemisphere ) is that the Equatorial band represents a kind of 'wall' in free space - like an atmospheric asymptote in some sense... Which by constraint, there is limited mass exchange across that virtual boundary. Such that a wave propagating ( primarily ...) south of the Equator, does not force upon the N. Hemispheric eddy. The Hadley Cell is split along the Equator, with the rising motion moving away at higher elevations ( I had posted an illustration of this a few pages ago....). The caveat on that is if the wave laterally grows in the N-S coordinate, which can happen and through that 'wall' - wave mechanics are different than Coriolis driven circulation systems. Anyway, should the wave its self begin manifesting propagation over the N side, then we start dumping LH and we're on... Another concern... the La Nina foot-print is in destructive interference with MJO waves phase 7 around the horn to 2's. ..etc. That means that usually ( but not always) the total Hemispheric eddy would offsetting these MJO's leaving the Marine continent - suppression. The new weekly PDF publication: they have opted not to mention the southern propagation bias - I don't know if that implicitly means that wave 'has grown N' or not. Since they are mentioning the west Pacific TC activity - that would tend to suggest it does. So, ... hm, we'll see. But if recurving TCs enter the discussion, that definitly changes the map on whether LH flux gets involved with the WPO ejection routes across NP. ... I mean, that's like a full-on vaccine syringe injection of plaguing shit circulation cure right there - maybe. But that's a maybe that is not merely hope - but something to look for. I also find it interesting that the extended GEF members are hinting at some Siberia- Alaska regional height rises. I have noted ( personally ..) in the past, that sometimes these regions will begin to manifest rising heights ( lowering EPO phase ) prior to the advent of the W. Pac cyclone(s)... It's always sort of made me wonder which is really the chicken vs egg in the pattern change.... This is wandering into a way too long didn't read territory for iPhone swipers but ... that seems to suggest the TC capturing adds/positive re-enforcemet to pattern change that is already in place, if too nuanced to see right away. Interesting....

Plus the GFS keeps trying to pinch off the bottom of that trough just before the warm-up farther out there. I don’t know if you guys been noticing that but again the GFS is probably high on everybody’s shit list right now

The point was …,one of those two factors screwed this up in the case of the euro is definitely D amped the pattern in which this passed thru - it did not get feedbacks I’ve been watching it all week in the case of the GFS it timed it wrong . that’s model performance “models don’t perform well in these circumstance” - namely speed. Which also it’s kind of counterintuitive but I think the GFS nuanced with too much curvature in the larger scale flow earlier on, why it was getting a feedback sooner

‘Course …after the Gfs served for three days worth of runs, lies, …any takers

The euro D amplified it. The GFS had bad model performance… We can cut it up all we want

That post should ensure a foot …

This was called out days ago tho - systems deamp coming into shorter range. - model skill is inherently worse in this hemispheric circumstance. For whatever reason drives those observable biases … it doomed the GFS notions that originally triggered the enthusiasm for this thread. Heh. The upshot is the Euro needed a win … It may not nail all fields precisely but at this point probably righter

Looks like it brings the goods around 54 but ...that to me doesn't diminish the notion either way, because it doesn't just get all the sudden un-hindered of bias at 48 hours, either. Plus... f'n NAM

Getting into the earlier ages whence it it becomes lesser wise to question the guidance particularly < 80 hours. But having the Euro be that far S/suppressed compared to the GFS ... does tend to force needing to ask the question in this case. Weird. 'specially this close. The NAM notoriously has a NW bias over the western Atlantic > 48 hours out for these type of ascending waves. Actually ... I don't see that as not being the case with everything, really -

Glad to hear you are alright, Jerry. I can tell you from personal experience, the vertigo thing out of no where is very disconcerting - down right scary. And it can be anything! Hopefully it's as simple as an antibiotic for inner ear or something. When I had mine, I had just finished a final exam, Junior year in college when out of the blue, no sense of up down right left fore' or aft. I literally had to pat the walls of Ball Hall with palms, and feel my way back to my dorm through the tunnel to Smith Hall - which doesn't exist now ( UML ). Anyway, passer-byes were looking at me like, 'Is that dude alright' - it was the weirdest scariest to this day, unexplained episode. It cleared up in a couple of hours and the rest of that night I was sort of in a fugue but nothing else. But I ended up having CTC scan and all this blood work - terrified that I was going to be told I had a brain tumor or some shit. Nada - ... phone call came and everything was negative. "Yeah, but why - " ... was told it's just sometimes weird things happen. That was the answer I got. Seeing as that was 25 years ago - ...I think I'll be okay . Sounds like you will be too. But to this day, sometimes I wonder if that will ever strike again.

Oh it’s suspect for sure … the “day 10”-ness might give a clue. at least it’s not a grinch storm … grinch week instead. Lol

It's day 10 ...ha. It's denoted 'clown range' for a reason ... obviously we know that - my point is that I'm not too bothered by it because for one.. we've seen this about every 3rd or 4th day in the past two weeks, and then it gets muted some... Some sort of warm up is more likely than not, but the scale and "degree" of it is "up in the air"

Nothing screams holiday glee like this D10 cosmic rays burst coming at us out of the EPS ...

Did he give any indication what was going on ...?

The bold is debatable. 2ndly, no - I am not condescending - as in 'elitist' ? No, not in any way shape or form of my personal being and interaction with my varied spheres of life. I am in fact effacing by nature ... My colloquy is defined by open ended statements and questions to facilitate a persons thoughts, because I am genuinely interested in what they have to say. There is always going to be a segment of any group that hears things through some sort of petty filtration - and there's nothing that can really be done about that. I merely advanced some advice about fast flow weather regimes and model accuracy - from a position of actual education and experience in the subject matter - that does not make one condescending - sorry. When I first mentioned the model limitations in fast flow stuff, the advise was dismissively met - Society has found its way into a mess where no one is allowed to be right - everyone is a pro that deserves that respect, by trophy and participation logic.

There's an old adage ... I think it was Samuel Clemens, that goes like, 'never argue with a stupid person because they will bring you down to that level where they have far more experience'

Hey Scott.. does that product (MJO) run pretty regularly ? I'm curious if the wave coherence may materialize more to the N. The spread on the RMM is more about magnitude than position now - which is a change where I wonder if that "might" mean there is some wave 'inductance' ( I guess ..).

The fact you felt it necessary to personalize anything (bold) at all evinces you are... Stop being a teenager and start growing - 2ndly, I am educated formally in this discipline of Meteorology - you are not. Sorry - deal with it. You are incorrect in your mentality regarding day 5... There are numbers that prove this empirically. If this comes back in the next few runs, all it does is underscore the natively bad deterministic skills of models in this type of flow regime. The regimes provide different skill - that is fact. deal with it.

You could be angry ... or, you can learn from this - up to you... There are flow regimes where you can have reasonable confidence at D5 ... this was not one of those.

Perhaps not... But nah - there are flows conducive to better predictive skill - present era is/was definitely not one of those examples.

One of my favorite films, lol. I can kinda see the moment of frustration, though. Heh, it's kind of like a 5-year old flopping cause mom put the candy back. Just caution to the beleaguered warriors of hope vs sorrow: never trust a D5 guidance in a fast flow regime.

Closer? Sure, within the realm of possibilities. "A lot" - mm... The gist of 'finding something of a compromise' between the diametric 00z operational versions is paramount for me. The non GFS versions were a lot SE of the GFS, so having non-GFSers coming NW would be by definition closer, either way. Having said that, I don't see any Meteorological reason why they will come "a lot" - lol... This system is squeezing up through a couple of elephant assess: one being the vestigial Canadian PV ...the other is the a semi-permanent height surplus in the S. That doesn't offer a lot of correction wiggle room. Put it this way... the GFS needs to move SE a smaller amount to cause this to miss a lot.. .but the other runs have to move quite a bit to even get half way, and do so between those to larger synoptic aspects. It's fun to play the model fight tho - give you that.

I have no direct meteorological observations lending to the following statement - just model experience, alone: Newer runs of the GFS will continue the 06z and be trending ... while the other models seem to tick NW. GFS may even go 20% less at 12z, then another 20 at 18z ...then the 00z completes the overcompensating. Meanwhile, the Euro's been ticking NW. The GFS comes partially back tomorrow ...and what ultimately happens is something like S/SE zones get clipped by light. Everyone else? #BLNT That's just long years of operational/model experience telling me that... Usually, @< 96 hours the Euro won't approach absolute wrongness, nor will the GFS. It's really rather remarkable to have both operational runs be that diametric, such that they were on the 00z run. One is a upper moderate-lower major, the other is model .1 to .8" snow coverage - which is tantamount to model-noise dust and isn't even real. So it's like we have all or nothing on the 00z run comparison, for an event squarely < D5. Now that's a neat case. So, some sort of compromise tends to verify ... whether that is 60/40 ... 30/70 ... 55/45 ... etc, with either coming in first place. Right now that imaginary blend has more of flat bottle-rocket wave with a compressed light cold side affair across primarily CT-RI-E Ma up to maybe Logan. If the Euro is 'that' wrong, or the GFS is 'that' wrong - ...I also would almost give either some sympathy because we've found our selves yet again polluted with too much base-line velocity and hyper compression in the total hemisphere.

God I hope that 18 lolly in Boston while everyone else Zanax’s 11 nails it. Lol

I honestly thought the 18z version was a little bit of a shirk job for route 2 corridor and up. It was snowier ptype for more people but it was also less QPF bombing low or not; it was strengthening low but it was also tracking it slightly south of the previous tracks which were better for the interior