Typhoon Tip

Weekend looks shit to me. I mean, we could petty argue/bargain it's better because we are not under 538 dm thickness, rather 552 - so some form of morality victory there... But, with that cutting-off low over top a slow death coastal, just being enough to long shore a fetch from S of NS clear to Buffalo, there's not much about that synopsis that looks realistically nice. That's just the way the 00z run look to me. I do think we are still in the process of modulating them two days in the guidance. What ultimately gets severed in terms of momentum, mid and aloft of that... could have an effect on the patterning later next week during that extended warm-up. Re that/ extended ideas: the 00z GGEM backed away. However, the GEPS suggests its engineering bs. That ens mean is going to be smoother at this range, either way, but it still makes the operational version noisy looking. Either way, milder to warm d7-10. The Euro, on the other hand, maintained ...arguably adding ridge growth. The ens mean (EPS) was slightly more robust as well. Both bring significant, though non-historic, non-hydrostatic height anomaly slow over arching a vestigial weakness over the SE/FL headed for the Gulf...which by the way, ... and EPS/oper. evolution might be early tropical interest with that region as it ends up festering down there D10-12. The GFS is still dumping too much mechanical power into that feature, but not as much so as previous runs. That will probably have to slowly back off the throttle. It's fighting its bias to do so. The GEFs demonstrate a weaker vibe with that.. Either way, particularly the 06z, these guidance were opting for more ridge prominence over a closed gale - So, reasonable continuity/emergence, toward the teleconnector signal, for warm mid month continues overall. Very early guess, doesn't look historic ... As much as all this has > 50% in the "proof of concept" perspective, the models will tend to also magnify versions that come over the outer edge of the guidance horizon, if/when those signals are emerging within a telecon backed regime. So -PNA/ +(AO/NAO), is likely going to show up on D9 oper models in exaggerated form. Sometimes that holds... but most of the time you end up with a tamer ordeal. We'll see.

Euro RH sigmas, 700, 500 ... have RH wall cutting NW-SE right thru SNE but advancing enough that we've gone under the edge by then. Plus, nothing screams a nice pleasant mild May day like 4 isobars running parallel along an axis from Cape Cod to Rut VT. Turn on the easterly soothing balm and walks away, why don't you... weee. That day's a piece of shit.

it's funny but you know ...I've been thinking about this off and on this last week. How we seem to be in an all or nothing climate, wrt to specifically the cold side behavior. We either have a direct feed of harshness, or it's rest state above normal. I'm convinced of this behavior. We don't seem to statically maintain cold air. Even in the depths of winter that seems harder to do then 30 years ago. I most definitely attribute this to CC.... I began having email exchanges with Mets and climo folks outside the forum 10 years ago, regarding how our "flip direction" in marginality seems to favor going liquid as opposed to parachutes ... just as an inclusion. But wrt to temperatures, soon as this pattern finally yields... absolutely the yaw back in the other direction could take some by surprise. Separate muse: I think if we are ever going to have a historic heat event here that is on par with the Pac NW, or France or the Urals ... Siberia etc, over the NE states, it would tend to happen prior to full green-up N of the Mason Dixie. That way, we are not holding the kinetic temp down for storage into theta-e, so that we can lock up > normal for nighttime lows. Being that we are exiting the continent, our atmosphere is an miasma of bio and industrial farts, weighting too much to allow temps to do the 108's.

Yeah ..that's a toasty extended Euro, no doubt. Sets up a surface anticyclonic node centered N. Pa, with what appears to be a thermally induced trough east of the Berk's up/down the coastal plain. That pretty much forces the flow WNW dragon breath. Meanwhile, non-hydrostatic heights approaching 590 dm. Hydrostatic heights > 570 dm. The 850s would likely be warmer than that - I mean they're not un-warm.. One thing I've noticed is that the 850s tend to moderate in the Euro. Whether cold outbreaks in winter, or the extended range heat in summers... the D8-9-10 more typically will elevate a tick or two, if/when the long range essence becomes real. So we'll see there... But, that set up pushes D9 into the 80s and probably 90 D10. Again...I'm > 50% confident in a pattern change toward warmer over mid latitudes of the continent/E but those particulars are low confidence for now. It would be nice if that dumpster setting up through the W. could get them some hydro tho -

Does any building built in the last 20 years utilizing modern physical materials ... actually burn? I was told by off duty hats that most of what they do, ... outside of triple decker box traps down in Worcester or older neighborhoods in the N. End, tend to be hazmat related. Chemical order calls, or electrical stink.. that sort of stuff. Coconut Grove is thing of the past...

Bump for bearing current relevancy - ... here we are again, in May, with clockwise circulation node emerging (modeling) between NS/Cape Cod. This delivers 'over-the-top' early heat signal ... targeting SE Canada/ perhaps NNE ... maybe as far S as NYC...etc, with anomalies that push those region above areas from TV-MA ( possibly).

GGEM brings it from DTX to BOS for how much/little it's worth - Hate to say, some kind of warm anomaly fits this: How far it actually goes or what orientation, who knows...

I thought it was supposed to rain tonight - whatdya mean

Wait ... so you're gonna install your AC, for heat 600 miles away up in Toronto ? Interesting... Sides, window units are phasing out. They're loud and power exhaustive and not terribly efficient - some are better than others..whatever. Homes and other edifices are getting out fitted with what are called, 'mini-splits,' which do more complete environmental controls vastly more efficiently, within the air space itself.

Slowly ...yup. But it could yet come back...? I don't put it beyond the GFS to try, but frankly I think it will win in this case. I think there will be a weakness there, but yeah, the GFS was likely over-blown ( pun intended) Other concepts: There is a hugely consistent, multi-domain space mode change signaled, all of them actually... The PNA flips negative. The AO flips positive. And the NAO flips positive, all dong so along the same temporality. The PNA, or NAO alone backs away from a GFS support, but doing so in tandem connotes a GFS' deeper solution even less. I feel confident that the GFS' speed bias is playing into that ... A weakness - I think - will be there. Because here's the confusing part: the hemisphere is fast, anyway. As an aside, I have noticed - as have others - that there's been a tendency in recent May and Junes to through heat anomalies through southern Canada, while setting up a SE inflow - almost like a displaced Trade wind anomaly - into the M/A ... I've referred to this as a "continental Kelvin -Hemholts" effect. The fast jet lifts N, then there is a kind of counter-balancing ( non-linear or "emergent") tendency for the flow to drop S over the Maritime ... well basically, imagine a Bermuda clockwise circulation displaced N of normal. This has been observed; the causality is all theoretic conjecture... Either way, I don't find it coincidental that here we are, another May, and these models are putting +16C at 850 plumes over the tick country of southern Ontario, while it's barely 10 C near DCA with a some sort of weakness there.

I've been referring to it as the month of Anus ... but no one's taking to it so I'll desist eventually. This is a particularly un-redeeming time of year. Loathsome month. Some rare ( what? 1:20 return rate) we'll get quality but dry or not, this was a climate shit-hole April like any other. I really don't care that much about direct sun. Temperatures piss me off. Yeah...that's interesting. I wonder if all this can find agreement among the various climo sites.

It's funny you bring this up ... I mentioned the GFS tending to accumulate too much gradient out in time, as a kind of static bias of that tool. I haven't delved into any hypothesis as to why - tho I have them. I've only mentioned occasionally that it does this. It may in fact be the thermodynamic (evap/condensation) handling in the ongoing total atmosphere. I remember about 4 years ago... maybe 5 (2017 or 2018) ...there was a powerful March storm taking shape in the models, parked perfectly E of Long Island. I don't recall what the other models were doing ...but the GFS at the time kept hitting at 39/31 type T/TD spreads 3 .. 5 days in advance. Within heavy comma-head QPF, no less? And with a CCB coming in under 850 mb temperatures all of -1 to -2 C, there was hope for uh ...other. This was also a recently updated/new version release of the GFS. We are all speculative of course ... It was as though the model couldn't wet-bulb. It got within 80 % of doing so and halted the gap. So of course ( lol) privately we were all hoping 33 or 34 wet bulb blue bomb snow disaster could be in the making.. haha. Ennnnnt! ( enter buzzer sound)... What happened? 33 to 34 F saturated cat paws and straight rain to 2.5 or 3" of hydro. Oh, we were right to question the new version of the era's GFS, but it didn't pay dividends to late season hopefuls..no. Wah wah wah. there was a pesky 925 mb +2 or something... Still a bizarre event either way because that was slam dunk for dynamic isothermia that evaded taking place. The storm actually maxed out at mid levels prior to arrival...I wonder if that idiosyncratic timing has something to do with it... Anyway, soon after a new version of the GFS was suppose to have addressed that stuff... But I wonder if there are still some 2ndary or tertiary type d3' aspects that nag at it, perhaps ultimately rooted back to when it was more glaring - like in that March storm's case. Thermodynamic 'bugs' in code

Yeah I just dropped a post in myself discussing my personal hypothesis on "GFS creating its own error space" ... either way, comes to the same recourse... EPS/GEFs blend.

mm .. nyeah down by Hatteras? It may be more problematic down that way, but how much so... too early unfortunately. The thing is, these west Atlantic "true" cut-offs have a climatology at this time of year. More so in April ... but it is only early May. (2005, May, was not the same thing for those savvy). That all said, they can be over assessed at this range. I'm almost positive last year dealt with one of these in May modeling. We had to sit by run after run, slowing it filled and minored in the guidance... and then what verified was a heat wave for S. Ontario and Quebec, while a mere weakness set up east of the M/A...and SE surface wind kept that region tucked with 70s. I could see this doing something similar with over-the-top early warmth being tucked under at large synoptic scales, and that the GFS is dumping a surplus of mechanics into what may in fact not really exist - again...an artifact of it's bias.

Yeah, I was noticing that... Thursday looks similar to yesterday - though not an exact match. ... Wind drops light, with mild -ish 850 mb temps, and a flow between the surface and that level averaging d-slope. 700, 500 and 300 mb RH mean values < 50% suggests ample sun ( using the Euro for these metrics) would suggest more on the clear side. May sun doing the rest... Euro 2-m is 69 at HFD and 64 F at BOS... But those appear to be the adiabatic temps - they don't calculate the 100 meter near the surface, where it's sloped sounding under a broiling sol. Add 4 or 5 to HFD, and BOS gets screwed within 5 or 10 clicks of the Harbor by the usual. GFS synoptics are not enough different.

The GFS creates it's own error in this case. It's consummate over -evaluation of westerly jet power. As an ongoing problem ( a see in this guidance), it cumulatively end up in late mid and extended range, with too much westerly wind velocities, and too much hon-hydrostatic gradient out in time. It's basically consummately after cooling the polar side of the jet. For example, by D7 ( most notable in DJF) compare the Euro with the GFS and the latter will be 3-5 dm colder in the cold cyclonic regions over the north side of the ambient polar jet. It carries, even in vague semblance, on with this tendency... Among other aspects, it fights seasonal change; at this time of year when that change intrinsically is trying to relax the hemisphere, it's trying to load gradients. I think in this case ... what it may be doing is that it sees the flow as relaxing, with the +(AO/NAO) but right at the boundary of that transition/mode change, it has a resulting surplus of wind mechanics and cold that it's stuck with ... it drops in and gets caught in the weakness. I think there will be a weakness there ... astride the MA ... But I suspect the GFS operational, being the outlier - and having it's biases - is too much with that.

I'm not to worried about it, seein' as you asked me and care what I think. no but the ensemble mean of all guidance, including its own GEFs, are no where near as prominent with that feature. Even the operational version of the Euro and GGEM are less amplified overall.

Gone mad or not... we are definitely behind recent year's behavior with our timing in particularly above ground deciduous species. Bushes and shrubs are leafed out, but even those appears stuck at 80% or so - they don't seem "full" The tree I lovingly refer to as 'General Sherman,' that looms over from its kitty-corner anchor at the nexus of three properties, including mine, is skeletal. Sucker stands some 70 or so foot maybe more, with a canopy span that's perhaps 2/3rds or more of that same distance. It's an old, old Sugar Maple... I'm guessing by the 4' ~ drunk diameter, probably got it's start around the Industrial Revolution. Anyway, Sherman's never gone this deep into spring without at minimum, notable swelled buds. As of yesterday, it had not. I haven't actually checked this morning... We pinged 73 yesterday and having stayed above the 30s overnight, who knows. Even the Silver Maple across the way, which tends to drop its reddish bud detritus by early April most years is being ambivalent about unfurling leaflets. That sucker usually has the beginnings of dappling shade over the road it claims by now... The only exception appears to be the Norwalks; they are flowered out now everywhere. I don't know how or why... "what" may be more apropos, decides when all that gets underway. It can't be the temperatures in April alone. That month was modestly above average. Maybe it's the behavior of the temperature some how. Could it be that plants are like humans, in that they get pissed off by shit-showing asshole cold windy days. That would be neat. I dunno.. but if I was tree stuck out there in this last month's piece of shitness I think I'd-a checked out too. Lol. Regarding that... I have a question... We have the running and then final average temperatures for the month of April. But those are doing the diurnal totals. I was wondering if the lows, or highs are averaged separately? Maybe the highs were below normal, and the lows were above normal ... but just by enough in the latter that it pulled the totals above.

Hey PF ... beware over-top May heat

Well that 66 at FIT and 64(?) at BED busted warm like we thought. Both bootlegged a 72 off 71.6 according to MESOWest... either way, good call there - Also, as Scott suspected, BOS had no chance of making 66 in a zip gradient full sun May day while there's super adiabatic overturning inland.

yeah... and the rain we had recently - all told I don't think it's ( fairly ) been that bad. I'll admit, as bad as the March 20 - May 20 time of year is both notorious, and earned for climate, we haven't head any of those week to 10-day long protracted wheel of wet deals that can often also be a part of the prison term. This years rendition of shit time of year has been more related to unrelenting poorly timed, cold, with what wind there has been, during day light hours related - it was taking the sun on mono e mono. But it has been particularly acute, despite data - sorry... the data and the daily weather experience do not always reflect one another. Said climo sites are barely plus for April ... T and P. Thing is, the summer's liable to be hot. That's my personal leaning idea for now... Responsibly? A couple of good 2-3" basin-wide griping, pissy post doom and gloom mood events before that heat arrives would be better for the region. Not likely get it... no.

I'm not 'as' pessimistic about this week. I'm between Scott, vs Kevin's spin tactic ( his intent and reason for doing so a complete mystery -).... but closer to Scott's side. I think we get into a light passage of showery rains tomorrow night and mid week, but I don't see the days troubled by those blue hydrostatic crayon lines. In fact, as an aside ... two days of runs consistently showing 0 snow blob ptypes on QPF charts anywhere in New England, is a stunning achievement either by the GFS, or just this 2022's particular spring's learning curve. Anyway, I'm not sure what the sun quota will be in between these maintenance rains, but with 850s above 0 now through all periods, it wouldn't take long to pop 10 F on top of a static morass - I mean just having that built in is a huge milestone - and notice? The month of Anus has to officially close before the models paint a portrait like that? I'm kidding but I'm glad it's over. The extended still looks like a pretty coherent paradigm shift takes place across the hemisphere. Moving toward -PNA, +(AO/NAO) in tandem is a huge total scaffold change from erstwhile Neutral/positve PNA with -(AO/NAO) Pretty much a diametric indicator. This was hinted off and on over the last week... Often times, major shifts do that before the telecon's bomb the current mode out there in time. The operational runs fight it too... The GGEM is the only one that really shows what that total manifold is capable of ...with 588 dm non -hydrostatic bubble inflating to almost DTX out there at the end of it's run. That model is still a Dr Jeckle and Hyde product and can't be trusted, but it is better than it used to be. Given that it fits the telecon of the GEF/cross-guidance suggestion, and the oper Euro and GFS have at least some semblance - though clearly they are doing everything electronically possible to damp it out for whatever reason... ( the anti- DIT factor? )... Anyway, model solutions "like" the GGEM's D8-10 movement might emerge going forward. Could be a warm mid month... And I'd also forward that 'over top' heat waves have been getting more common in recent decade springs. interesting...

Yeah ... this date could take first place in the diurnal recovery competition, no doubt. 33 to 36 at all home sites within a couple clicks of mi casa here in Ayer, where are all not 58, averaged. I man 20 to 24 recoveries by 9:15 am is like almost desert replace rates. Gettin a nerd chubby

Can you move those high temp aspects Scott and I just had over in the Anus thread to this one? I didn't realize we had a May thread going -

also, Scott and my conversation should be moved to the May thread - didn't know there was one ..