Typhoon Tip

Fwiw - the ICON at 18z began picking up on the GFS’ rogue storm on Boxing Day. Looks like the JMA had it at 12z GEFs trended.

Lol ... the ultimate 'kick the pattern down the road' - talk about next year.

In so far as the notion that "blocks can happen this year" ? sure -

More than less I know why it is over-valued. The NAO was a study done back in the 1960s or something...but was sort of not popularized or really very well lay-known ... until the 1990s, when it became more commonplace knowledge as the Internet provided fuller disclosure of back office discussion content so forth... Blah blah, but it was a perfect storm for popularity... because it was new and 'sounded' awesome. And we had just had a couple of historic winters in the Boston area... upper M/A, with 1994 and 1996 ...etc, and it was attributed. Heh. - the only problem was, the interpretation was overly marketed as the winter invasion for eastern N/A and western Europe. It's true in some sense... but for different reasons. It effects the winter circulation mode, but with different impact. The -NAO limb biases matter too, but by and large, -NAO is a storm look for Brittain, but more of a compression flow look for Chicago to Boston and the EC. It's a matter of scale and degree of doing so. More compression is not good. Less compression depends on what the Pacific loading pattern is actually doing. That was 1994 and 1996. So right off the bat we are having to find narrower windows where it is really actually "good" for winter enthusiasts... But people keep referring back to the specter of the 1990s... even I do it sometimes. Heather Archembault's Master's thesis covers that changing NAO mode as being LESS, not more, correlated to storminess over eastern N/A compared to the mode PNA change. Her paper and it's utility have gotten old at this pint ... jeez by some 25 or 30 years actually ( wow - ). So it's probably been augmented ...who knows. But having less correlation to the primary "storm loading pattern," then, having it be stuck in negative, while we have a -PNA rolling up a ridge axis centered on Dayton Ohio ... that is a destructive wave interference pattern at large scales. And no -NAO will help in that regime if it is hugely negative - it is bad bad bad... It seems the NAO, either forecasting failure or, having it emerge and NOT mean dividends to winter enthusiasm ...has been a recurrent theme with very high recurrent abuse, yet.... posters can't wait to post the telecon. So to answer your question... it's no saving grace, no. Not even close. What it can be used for is an indicator to modulate one way or the other ( 'correction vectoring' ) systems. Part of the other problem is that the -NAO actually comes from the Pacific Rossby wave signal, as it terminates across the Americas. It's called a non-linear wave function. You have A, B, C, D, .... and down stream G grows or falls because of the relationship between B and C ... Linear wave forcing is when A causes B in this sense. But that and the rest of this write is big popsicle headache at this point, no doubt

I've given up on trying to dispel the illusion of the -NAO ... I used to struggle to get that point across, and ultimately ...stopped struggling when it was clear that it never will

It's a godsend for the western U.S. hydro - Probably not a bad thing for them to continue along this course, regardless of what it means here.

Heavy snow warning for 40 days and 40 nights

You know this is impossible to know without the model super computers doing a reanalysis model run technique - say, but I wonder just intuitively, about climate relativity Suppose if we took this exact hemisphere, and transported it back in time to 1950 ... 1980 ...2010 and today, do these respective eras 'do that' in Dallas on December 24? Course, we are talking about model for Dec 24 - it hasn't happened yet. ... But even if stops short in the 80s down there, that's probably what ? + 2 or even 3 SD ?? So the implicit question here is - of course - related to climate change. What makes this complicated, is... climate change may be more influential to the circulation anomaly, than it is to the thermal state of December 24 in Dallas. Like... it could be 90 in Dallas on December 24 1950, but the climate of the hemispheric circulation eddy would less likely promote that oddity from realization. So the difference in favorability, vs a warmer atmosphere - there's a subtle distinction there, but either way, it would be interesting to see if the super computers spit out 90 in Dallas 1950s given the same inputs.

Hmm... ya know folks should really get into the habit of reading the weekly PDF publications that come along with the CPC's RMM graphics. Their summations are on point by Meteorologist, and they offer some crucial insights and suggestions that both enlighten present circumstances/implicaitons, but also as a learning tool? Not trying to be condescending ...but it may help - this was released yesterday, and they tend to date these PDF's at the first of every business week. They begin with these paragraph summations of "key take-aways" ..but they files contain depth, with other graphs relating Kelvin waves and SSTs ...and La Nina interference scaling. I've bold some aspects below that I found intriguing for this week's • MJO indices continue to depict an enhanced West Pacific signal, and upper-level velocity potential anomalies show the enhanced phase crossing the central Pacific. • The amplitude of the MJO has decreased, and the RMM-based MJO index depicts little eastward propagation over the past week due to interference from the La Niña base state and Rossby wave activity. • The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict persistent enhancement over the West Pacific, with little to no eastward propagation. It is possible that this signal may reflect a temporary weakening of the La Niña atmospheric response. • There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential for this MJO event to remain coherent as it crosses the Pacific.

m’ya … never a big fan of v-maxes moving SE either. Boy the -NAO is really evidentially shunting anything that dare attempt it

Starting to wonder if the only way one of these models will ever verify snow coverage is if and only if every last mother fer fully believes otherwise.

Weather modeling will never get around the quantum uncertainty principle; that is the computational dead end … which means the future emergence at scale will always have some fraction of freedom from prediction.

Watch NYC get 2" Xmas eve and SNE gets nothing and likes it -

It's actually a stronger, more evolved sfc system - actually approaching bombogen criteria on this NAM's 18z Not sure I see less amplitude there - unless some other metrics ? One thing it is, is more nucleated and concentrating a core. It's almost like it's maybe confusing this into a TC ...I wonder if the phase diagram/comparison between it and the 12z might show that.

I've often wondered how sci fi it really is to speculated a mega displacement event - no sense describing what is meant by THAT. Little known ... I read or heard a story someplace - the age old cry of the rumor mill LOL, admittedly - where climate stations owned by different sovereign origins, situated out over the expanse of the Greenland ice cap - but as typically the case, are in comm's relationships with one another pretty regularly ... - all experienced an "Ice quake." Ice quakes are not altogether that unusual, in and of themselves, but having them all experience the same description, at the same span of minutes, within the same hour, stationed 20 or 30 nautical miles apart, is either an extraordinary act of coincidence at massive scales, ...or something else was taking place. Later that day, they started failing direction finding tech, because their coordinates were all off. Tapping devices, giving shakes ..maybe the batts are low..etc. Turned out, all three stations ... including the ice they were anchored upon, up and slid some 1/4 to 1/3 of a mi. But being situated out over the open expanse, where by there is nothing to differentiate against any horizon fixtures, they were unaware this was happening, the were actually, en masse, in motion. Other than the rumble and shaking going on as they moved. This was later attributed to increase basal flow rates lifting and "lubricating" the glacial foundation, and it lost anchor footing temporarily and away she went. It stopped... obviously. But this business with the "Dooms Day Glacier," as the press has come to denote, kinda hearkens to a similar scenario. I haven't dug in - just on the surface so far... Only here, the water ice that was essentially holding the land -based ice, has always preventing that. All the recent calving events having taken toll of the interstitial integrity of the mass "damming", ... maybe something like a catastrophic displacement nears a threshold. And the one that 'rumored' to have begun and halted one fateful day in mid summer over the vast expanse of Greenland, could take place. Only in the case of Thwaites, it doesn't halt. I think that fear must be implicit in this, already.

Shortly put, 'make going green a profit wagon,' somehow some way, and the world'll become a "Pandora" utopia ...really fast.

This is sorta interesting... look what's packing into the almost cookie cutter same region as that record heat last year - those are minus 30C contours

Not sure who said what when and where, how, or in what context so all due - but that idea of more than less favorable pattern transformation taking place closer to the month's end is definitely showing up more so in the last day's extended cluster means/telecon derivatives. Long ass haul to get there of course.. .but, we'd be out past the break water of the holidays in the open winter sea where it's all about pure event tracking for its own merit.

why I said it... heh

Pacific flow ... or which ever, yup - I just prefer to refer to it overall as a 'gradient rich' environment. By gradient, we mean the height contours on the weather map. When you see more of them, the ambient wind velocity - to wit, waves in the atmosphere move embedded in that field - increases in direct proportion. This is a circumstance - as an aside - that has been a repeating theme in winters over our continent, with increasing frequency observed since the early 2000's. This has happened regardless of ENSO this, or PDO that, or polar index multi-decadal indicators. Prooooobably related to the 'hocky-stick,' non-linear climate change.

Actually ... that's sort of the idealized model you have in mind there. It's not 'theoretically' wrong to outline a theme that way, but nuances relative to circumstance - long words for what this coastal is actually doing ... - is what fills the pages with the real story in each case. In this one, you have a low that moves from a zygote position E of GA to western NS in 24 hours ...that's ~ 85 mph of cyclone translation speed. That is unusually fast. The wind on the west side of this thing - even in a fuller strike - might actually not even be all that impressive due to that vector addition stuff ( think coastal accelerating hurricane, west side lower wind ..etc.). Simple words: not enough time to "grab" air in that sense.

Heh... 'cept, I don't really feel it's me doing the twisting? I feel more like an investigative reporter, ...disseminating ironies just comes from honest observation. The models are - figuratively of course ... - going out of their way to find a tribe in east Africa and then taking their sandwiches - ..ah, we'd be the tribe in that metaphor.

That ..and I was also just mentioning to Dryslot ( I always feel so dirty when I say that person's handle - ) how the NAM has a NW bias in this time-range and track. The GFS did sort of coalesce the low sooner and a few clicks west so.. heh, we'll see. Even in a stale fart air mass, I bet if that came down hard enough it would got slushy parachutes.

Yup... and to add to that suspicion... as I have my self warned when not mocking, ...hundreds of times, the NAM has a consummate W-N bias over the western Atlantic beyond 36 ... 48 hours, which this fits squarely into that suspect manifold. Despite that tho, this southern streamer is a specter that's been on the charts whenever grousing and bad attitude lenses allowed the user to see it... the 22nd system. The question - as Will and I mentioned - was really whether the N-stream would be able to 'dig' more and capture it/ up the phase proficiency. It's a fast flow - models don't handle the delicate machinery of phasing when hurrying the flow along at ludicrous speeds lol... ( I think I'm all set and ready to move on with fast atmospheres after the last 10 few years, but I fear it more common than not going forward ) Anyway, the GFS did also bump NW a bit ...clipping eastern zones with 34 F rain drops - Truth be told, if this thing were to really just come more W and dump heavy, it probably parachutes, but grazing the region in a rotted air mass is the shits.

Well that's smacking the faces of the already crying ... ...12z NAM with a 980 RI passing over the BM re the 22nd thingy... only - too warm. wah wah wahhh