Typhoon Tip

That's a bit of a specious distinction, frankly. It may seem so when looking at the previous run, but if you go back several, it's really been wandering around out there... some cycles farther SE- E and SW event. Spanning the last 4, there's really not much of a trend there. But just the last 2 cycles may appeal so

GEFs have, in essence, the same favorable look... Again, I've been hitting the 270-300 hr range therefrom ..etc. It's just not clear if a real event is in there, or that's just the larger scaffolding of the pattern passing through it's maximization. I've been looking at the ens PP means of the GEFs, they've also been off and on closing contours basically 240 - 330 for that matter. The numerical telecon of the PNA isn't hugely convincing but it is modestly positive. It would be better served ( confidence) if that would camel hump to go along with these graphics. That's been an interesting story that no one probably is even aware of unless they have a life like mine which is that the numerical equivalence of the graphics have not been aligning very well. The numerics/curves of the PNA should like more formidable given the graphics. I guess the only purpose for telling this is that less amazing events fit the numerical/EOF results; the graphics sell more.

Yeah, as far as the operational Euro goes ... this run is one perpetual negative interference scheme, ...beginning 72 hours right out to D8... In fact, it's in the process of demolishing the D7/8 event I was ( personally..) keeping track of. The 12z GEFs also blurred/backed away from that vision quite a bit, too. Sooo ... I say we blame Ray? I say we start a troll session for his making the impertinent verbal jest about rollin' snake eyes only to come up in the end knee deep in a RNA that sends us into the 80s again in February - nice goin' LOL

I was just gon' defend you LOL ... 'I thought he said relative to pattern - ' Although, the -PNA on roids wasn't really a favorable pattern for me. Particularly when it -NAO tried to obtrude exertion S along the EC at the same time said -PNA was attempting to raise heights. That was why 300 mb flight level velocities were 200 mph.. yikes!

Yeah, this is a whole new peregrination to the theme out there.. Wasn't there before - certainly nowhere near as obtrusive... Should be noted, there is a telecon drop in the NAO ... Perhaps +1 --> -1 --> neutral, over the next 10 days, and that vortex's behavior would tend fit that, particularly if the transient blocking pulses over the western limb/D. straight region. I recall some Euro runs had this 4 days ago but seem to lose it.. .But seeing as the telecon ( American ) has the NAO bounce, I dunno. More headaches ...

Nice coverage by y'all overnight. Concur with wdrag re the wave space contentions. The gist: we enter a pattern steeped in big potential; capped by negative interference. Longer thoughts: Should any one of these waves "correct" or open up in guidance by even a little, there's apt to be a hefty return on storm genesis - it may take the 72 hour window for the models to emerge that, as anything near -side of the mid range and beyond seems to be muddled by native model bias. I personally still like Monday... It was a D9-11 ( for those following..) notion at last event end, now D7/8. I wonder if/when the operational GFS ( and to some extent the Euro) stop tussling on the two waves the GGEM is not fighting over, and start favoring that period for just such a plausible correction mentioned above. The thing is, the 13-14th system to me almost looks fake. I'm noticing in all the guidance ( really ), there is a bit of a +PNA --> ridge assessment happening 48-84 hours off the 00z; consequentially, that is "kinking" the flow into a trough due to natural ordering of L/W forcing immediate down stream. The models than use that, but here's the thing they are using that alone, without the benefit of very convincing actual S/W input ( or at least less impressive). Given in situ the ginormous native instability where and whenever the west Atlantic thermal source meets a continental spilling polar air mass, that's all the excuse these runs need to spawn that big low. Noticing it's broad circulation with several cyclonic nodes ...It just looks like much of it is thus artificial to me. We'll see. There's likely to be something there - I'm wondering how much. If less..less interference lends to more conserved late in the weekend/early next week. Not a thread -worth idea just yet, but I'm poised should more members start looking like the GGEM. Heh...I would almost never side with the GGEM at this range, and I'm not. But, there is reason to suspect just the same. Having said all that... There is a much bigger signal in the deep range, 270-ish hrs. It's been lurking...fi we want to call that range lurking. I mentioned yesterday that it could either be just the pattern maximization, OR, ... one of those upper tier scenarios that begins showing up at unusually long-leads, due to having overwhelming physical significance in the total circulation mode. There are a few that performed this way in guidance... 1993, Sandy leap to mind, but I'm sure we could dig up others. Anyway, might be that... might just simply be the pattern getting to it's more dominate form before entering decay... I will say that the 06 z GEFs mean did manifest an impressive signal around that time, with multiple close pressure contours, and a 48 hour QPF outlook well over an inch.

Not that anyone should care but I don’t give a bean about snow pack at all …unless the rest base has a chance to break the snow depth record and we were so far removed from anything close to that kind of universe it really doesn’t matter to me - get rid of it As usual I just like interesting meteorology.

Course this 18 ZGFS solution comes up with an entirely different alternative solution which is not to have anything happen at all. Well I guess the clipper is there if anyone needs to believe it … heh

Sure do ... I'm wondering if that is just the pattern's apex around that, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...) - if so, we may begin to see it? I only suggest because looking at the GEF individual members, some of them have very large deep solutions along the EC... Like KU on roids

What's liable to happen here is that some run in the future over the next while will go absolutely crazy with a storm vision. What is sorta happening in the models through the mid range/extended is that wave space contention is essentially holding back a huge potential lurking in what is really a pretty extraordinary large scale. As soon as a couple of these wave open up and stop competing, any one of them could go ludicrous

yeah, considering what that looked like yesterday at this time, that's an improvement for two reasons.. 1 .. it is more nucleated 2 .. it is not as fused in with that Maritime low at the top of the frame. Yesterday the mean was clearly interfering those. They may still be, but less

heh ... that Euro solution is wonky - Been discussing the period of time for a couple of days and yeah, there's something there but that's just a weird solution. What do we expect at D8 I suppose -

Exactly my sentiments... I've been monitoring the D8 ( was D9-11 in posts two days ago ). It's the more coherent of the two, among both major ens means.

Still looking like a middling signal what was D9 yesterday ( now 8 ...) is probably the realistic event/early awareness. There is an ominous signal in the deeper range. In fact, there as many or more GEF individual members with large, deep solutions along the ES than there are carrying for the D8 system...

12z Euro trending heavily in favor of 120 hours at 500 mb; doesn't result, but the trend is real... What a mess that mid /ext range is -

Hmm ... I wonder if there's a teleconnector: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/08/asia/pakistan-muree-snowstorm-death-intl/index.html LOL

Kind of an interesting observation outside right now. Winds are gusting maybe 30 mph while it's 33 F in a mist of light rain. But, some of the snows that lingered in their stenciling of the tree limbs is being knocked to the vagaries of the winds, and sets to whirling in the breeze as though immediately it is still powdery in nature. It's like a recording of the colder recent times, spilling into the present tenths of a failing "warm" up - it's a temp recovery, but it ain't warm out there.

Saw that last night, and it's really more of a continuation of that which was set into motion, within the GEFs mean, a few days ago; the 15th - end of the month. The difference overnight, there is a subtle (if perhaps eventually telling ) honing around the 300 hour range. Hard to say if that's a pattern maximization, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...) Time, ironically ... is the only thing that will bring circumstances into emergence and figure out which is which... But that is for now, a huge teleconnector convergence on that time frame, elucidated rather nicely with your animations/annotation. Naturally I'm in agreement on the two weeks of favorable circulation mode(s) overall. I was commenting with the NY members over there yesterday, that I am wondering if this may enter an "R-wave storm" event, mid month+ The Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes... They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, perhaps a 3 to 5 day periodicity between, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - There was a meteorologist many decades ago that postulated these as more like planetary storms, each discrete events like squalls within - getting metaphorical but the idea was couched similarly. I've always rather liked the concept of that, however. It's one of the "cozy" assertions that just feels right. Anyway, wandering sorry lol. But other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978, but not as analogs, for occurrence. Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way. They define intraseasonal anomaly scopes.

Oh that. Okay right. that run also trended in the GEFs mean

Are seeing the individual members, or the mean? - I guess I mean what is the source ??

This 18z GFS shows what Will and I were mentioning earlier ... there's room in the synoptic scaffolding for that clipper to settle in and amplify... This run not only does so, but the "possible" newly arriving -NOA over the western limb pays immediate dividends to snow enthusiasts by back-logging/jamming it up to snow itself out. That would be late Thursday and Friday... This is a break in continuity however; I'm not incline to think of it - not even one we want to see LOL - as having any particular merit until it there are similar changes from different sources. It's a little odd that it did so at 120 to 140 hours, but that's right on the cusp of giving latitude to the model vs impugning it so it's just as well, noise. It could be as fun a period coming as it may be frustrating at time. If some how the clipper does go on to do more, it will impact the likeliness of that behind it D9. Re the -NAO... some of these runs are doing weird stalling/galaxy mergers out there in the Atlantic, and it is almost like they detecting the NAO forcing before the block actually materializes - interesting.. GFS did this 5 days ago with a 950 mb low on the BM - obvious bs but it's homaged.

What Will gave .. but also, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products Good luck navigating that site though - it's a quagmire of links, often just ending up in a descriptive essay about what you want to see without actually showing it...

Tough time with wave interference ... Plus, Euro tends to over amp corrections relaying logistically from D5's to 7 so a little leery from that mechanism too. Earlier today the EPS/GEFs were vague albeit still observably interested in D8-10, but we've also been discussing that range as negotiable ... There's plenty of room for amplitude with the clipper prior to. Also, hmm may be a 3 to 5 day periodicity an "R-wave storm" event mid month... Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes... They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - just wondering. Other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978 ... ( not as analogs, but for occurrence). Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way.

heh... yeah. I think we end up favoring one or two, but not all three. Which is obvious to say of course.

Agreed ... HA ... had no idea but apparently we've been parroting one another - as I've been pushing many of the same observations/ sentiments over in the NE forum... My general conflicts wrt the super synopsis centers on the apparent disconnect between the CPC EOFs, vs the graphical depictions of the EPS/GEFs blend, re the D7 - 15 time span. The EOFs don't look like the graphics ..particularly in the PNA. For confidence in issuing a thread - for me - would be better served if one agreed with the "look" of the other, for then establishing correction vectoring. The EOF telecon would be blase for amplitude; the graphics say look out for coalescing. In fact, I suspect the Euro/EPS are in neg interference ( also ..). 12z operational may merely be a step in "seeing" the potential. I've noted tendencies for the Euro op to "wash" it's D5+ with subtle amplitude. I'd be willing to hunch the clipper is being over done post Thurs, or it becomes dominant... but not both. I might thread for on Sunday - impetus, an early recognition for potential, but one I too am above the typical modeling confidence for that time range will result in tracking.