Typhoon Tip

Yeah... just waiting for the Pac to deliver ANYthing into that D6 to 11 range is stealing one's time of life away. Just won't take advantage of that modest, albeit coherent +PNA expression. It's like 4 consecutive days with no S/W traffic, in a fast hemisphere no less. That's strange - Lord it's hard to click through GFS without one's eyelids getting heavy and fighting off taking a nap. It's like a super-storm of avoidance, in a field of extraordinary potential. Instead, it fills the time with an endless parade of middling cold waves, that do nothing but set the table for the next front. Wondering if this is just part of the same tooth pulling we've suffered for many winters ...really since 2015's February. If it were not for that one 30 day stretch, we'd be working on a multi-decadal piece of shit f-up climate dent

Well... go for a walk... pretty much defines the afternoon out there ... Winds might be more S but whatever -

...and I know it's silly, and even petty annoying for those that hate the thought of winter ending.. But those types of super discrete tedious environmental changes really are the very beginning of seasonal change. I mean ( not directed at you - ) those days don't 'warm' cars or south facing window sills beween Nov 8 and Feb 8, nearly as proficiently as they do on Feb 12 ... It's a noticeable thing. There really is quantifiable increases in watt/m2 that cross a threshold on the 8th, one that is celestial mechanical of Earth's orbit position vs tilt circumstance, caused. But, ...normal seasonal climate lag/momentum is overwhelming... and obviously, smashes that factor at least until May 1 ... as blizzards in springs remind. That is, at least in 1980 climate. It seems in recent decade(s), springs are just as hugely vagarious as autumns have been. I have personally observed three February's where a week hosted 70s and two touched 80 on at least one of those days! March... three or four times too in the last 10 years. And 90s once or twice in Aprils. This, despite the some hefty March snow event reminder years, too. Regardless, probably near equal number of Mays as Octobers, having produced if not a synoptic car-topper, packing pellet CAA virga exploded CU days. That turn of phrase is designed to intimate no discernible bias, the pattern is 'lack of pattern' in itself. I remember in the early 2020 Pandemic, in May, sitting out on back deck of a buddy's house, where is salon wife was cutting our hair. We sat in sweaters doubting the truth of the Pandemic with occasional flurries going by... christ. May - ... Yet, it was in the 70s earlier that February - again. And we've suffered this unusual wide standard deviation latitude in Octobers and Novembers, too. At both seasonal ends, the frequency increase is oh ... 5X's above the previous 200 years of climate signal for SD oscillation that are above ~ 3. Maybe it's just a weird noisy 20 years ... ( yeah right).

There doesn't appear to be an obs thread for this ordeal .. Looking at rad obs the the rain/snow transition appears to be moving ESE across upstate NY, ... about 45 mi W of ALB. But it's been marching steadily so. If the recent hour's progress were to continue, ALB ptype on rad starts cat pawing by noon. But these transition lines can both hesitate and accelerate, as they 'wobble' along their journeys. That looks like a metric for the position of the main frontal boundary, too, as though it were moving steadily along - but the most recent sfc analysis provided by WPC ( 8:44 this last hr) shows it west of this axis by some 70 or mi, so perhaps a sloppy metric to go by. The SFC obs at Ucar aren't loading and I'm too lazy to find another source... Wunder' winds are never going to represent reality, do to site nuance, either.. Anyway, in this situation, where ever the front succeeds, it's not going back the other way - no way! Whatever happens aft the frontal passage, notwithstanding. I think that's the key now-cast focus for the next 18 hours. It 'looks' like the cold is maybe ahead of guidance based on these coarse observation methods. I think what we need is ground truth reports about the sky conditions... If there's a defined NW motion over a given spot, the fronts gone by.

Every time that ridge astride Pacific Canada giga motions to the E, there's liable to be amplitude either settling near Chitown longitude, or emerging given time. Timing those movements takes a little "rhythm" for lack of better word but there is a registry there -

Solar spring begins in 6 days ... less than a week! Yup.. Doesn't mean much of course. It's not really forcing at first, but the perennial solar nadir, which begins on November 8, ends on February 8. From February 8 thru May 8, is the transition. ... May 8 thru August 8 is the max, and then we descend. It's when the acceleration of day-light recovery begins at both ends of the day - I think... I'm not sure if there's more to it than that. Anyway, I've often been relentless made fun of ( entirely understandable ... ) for even mentioning in the past. But, you may notice that a cold sunny day around that day and moving forward, doesn't need the heater on in your car. Or does less... Whether the weather wants to cooperate or not, these celestial mechanics are happening. and it is about that time of year, mid February, where the internal monologue sounds off during a blizzard, 'It can rage all it wants ... July is still coming'

Could be - as in maybe ... - a beginning collapse back SE as it's out ranges get nearer. I have been concerned about this guidance' tendency in the +48 hours to be too far NW with frontal positions and cyclone tracks - just reiterating.. - as plausibly doing so in this overall scenario. not sure.. it's the NAM and it could be giga motions too. Need a couple of more cycles and some help from the GFS ( I'm a little put off by the Euro right now - )

Word! outlined this earlier myself... and no model really is going to 'nail' the lowest 1,000 feet with extraordinary precision wrt floor jets

Snow pack really compressed today ... It was holding its own, more sublimation losses to this point, but it's 45 today and it's mush out there. Probably 6 or 7" compared to 12 two days ago.

It's like a moral victory ? LOL ... I mean, anything by 32.1 F heavy rain. Which even I have to admit, despite by protestation of weather not affecting my moods as such ... drives me a bit to distraction. My hang up with it is that having to leave the house in the normal gestation of daily living, with pelting rain at that temperature ... is a little worse than 33.1 ... Which is a little worse than 34.1 Which is a little worse than NN.1 ...see how that works? At least with ice, it kinda sorta gives something back in terms of entertainment and specter, even if snow is preferred, ...which is a little better than sleet, which is little better than ice... Something like that - But, folks engage in this pass-time for all kinds of needs and reasons. Just a half snark opinion.

Except me ... heh.. I mentioned the "D8-12" near the end of the blizzard as the next interesting period ( for me...). I did not anticipate ( honestly ..) this aspect in the foreground - though in my defense...I was not looking for it's type; that being non- large synoptic rooted, such as the last event was..etc. This nearing system is an interesting arctic kiss against modest warm anomaly in both non-hydrostatic circulation manifold in the S, but one with modest warm hydrostatic heights - which is why there is unusual QPF likely to verify across a gargantuan swath of CONUS real-estate. "Hadley ... I want you to meet Arctic - I think y'all 'ill hit it off" Anyway, I "sorta" still like the D5 -10 range ( as it's gotten closer..), because the flow is showing a tendency ( still ) to bulge the +PNA ridge toward the Rockies. WHILE, and this is important ...the flow subtended E across the mid latitudes of the continent appears to "relax" gradient some. This offers room for amplitude/ .. less overall large --> shorter scale negative interference ( which is really what speeding flow/compression really represents). The only problem is ... we are not getting delivered any kind of stronger Pac wave mechanics into that described arena, such that anything meaningful can spawn. So, it's like a scaffolding for building that never gets filled in. This happened a year ago in January - the flow relaxed and there wasn't much to take advantage of it. It just sort of came and went - maybe you remember that. I dunno. Point is ... it happens. I think if a S/W does get introduced, it may take advantage - but I've been in wait. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By the way, as as separate aspect... Folks are mentioning the MJO. I'd be careful using that for this first two weeks of February, as NCEP is being pretty clear that there are local time scale Rossby wave(s) activity that is in wave-space conflict ... causing suppression of the wave's emergence through the Marine continent. It may change heading into week two, but by then, it's forcing ( if it can ...) time lags into week 3. Yikes.. In other words, it may not work to depend much on any MJO feedbacks. Also, I recall mentioning in my own 'tepid takes' wrt to the seasonal outlook game earlier this last autumn, that I thought the La Nina and the atmosphere may uncouple as the season progressed ( won't go into reasons why, as they piss off Ray LOL... ).. No but that is being observed now, as the low level westerlies are currently disonnected from the La Nina circulation model. • The MJO remains weak, with both the RMM-based and CPC velocity potential based indices reflecting low amplitude and no eastward progression. • There are indications of an eastward propagating enhanced convective envelope now over the Indian Ocean, but a remarkably strong Rossby wave is destructively interfering with this signal. • Anomalous lower-level westerlies over the east-central Pacific reflect a continued disruption of the La Niña background state.

Actually I wanted to see the wind ... which he's right the lower panel had that. I was thinking their might be more N component over Maine but it's interesting light and E.

Uh sorry - helps to scroll huh lol

Hey JC' ... do you have the top panel at the 850 mb by any chance ( same prodcut source ? )

Separate 'operational' question... At what point ( also ) do we begin to justly questioning the Euro due to performance? The impetus for 'needing to ask' is because it's spent 20 years as the MVP model - it's kind of institutional. The last 2 of which ...particularly, 1 years, have begun to shake the foundation ( maybe?). Or, the other model skills have elevated and are competitive. So there may be some relativity to it.. Plus, the last system and this one have 0 comparative synoptic root causality ... other than the fact that they both are occurring in Terran atmosphere. Heh. I mean ... should the old adage of 'past performance doesn't justify present response' apply? I think it does though in some sense. If a model is getting increasingly untrustworthy ... you'd better still modulate that into one's reasoning... Duh. The other aspect is the verification scoring method - I don't know... Is that done as a globally integrated qualitative thing...? Or is x-y-z model also examined in quadrature. Like, maybe the Euro is so flawless out over the open expanse of the Saharan African continent, that it soars its average ( sarcasm...), but just between ORD-BOS and the Del Marva, it has a weird weakness that it doesn't carry on with anywhere else on the planet. Man, the way I remember the last storm: the Euro had no clue for the first 4 days of the thing.. Then, suddenly, at D5 or 6 ( so I guess it gets a pass?) it sees it hugely and slams the EC with a history blah blah blah... Then, it insists that way for 3 days... while the GFS never was that emphatic. It had weaker, stress coherence low organization... with problems extending impacts N-W ... sometimes even missing altogether, which has its own concern ... But in the end, the Euro demonstrated clear, over all poorer performamce consistency, and ultimately .. wrongness - sorry it just did. The GFS was not perfect, but it scored better in my anecdotal recall -

I think you mentioned that may happen yesterday or the day before... if memory serves - something like, 'the game is not over though, if the GFS comes back tomorrow, even though it is winning now the result will shift more 50/50' LOL forgive me if I don't present a photographic memory but it was very close to that. Anyway, we might be seeing that... But, I also agree with Ryan's modulating in the meso tact, but would also add that some that has to be now-casted as even these higher resolution tools might not see 'tuck' jets. ( clearing I'm obsessing over this latter factor, I know heh)

Well all else aside ... ( was trying to be multi-faceted in the missive heh) ... that bold, right there, is precisely agreed and why it is 'annoying'. I don't get it... As far as the NAM ...yeah, that's why I mentioned at the end about it tending to a NW bias with fronts and cyclone tracking at range beyond 48 hours. I did say the exact same thing ( too ) that if the the NAM were to correct for that coming in closer range, it would accelerate - yup ... so there we go. I guess I feel this situation has a shot at lower end warning ice, but I feel the gradient being expressed over very short distances, while pushing S in time, will probably limit ice to upper advisory, and the snow to upper advisory, but neither actually in warning? ...if you get my meaning... Sometimes you get a kitchen sink event that forces the Warning hand from multi-variate impact spectrum... sumpin like that. I think it would be a lot easier of you lived N of ALB to PWM ...as that region may straight up no-contendo snow

The recent NAM runs hint though. TT's rendition of the 2-meter temperature, the model's taking until 12 Z to get the 0C isotherms to a rough Springfield-Nashua line, and 18Z to get it to south of the Boston-Hartford/Willimantic. Which I find a tad annoying. It's a high resolution hydrostratic model - which means ( in theory) it is integrating theta-e into the column. It should 'detect' the weight of the air, when the fresh low DPs flood east of the Whites...setting off the 'tuck' intrusion by the pressure rises in east of the Whites/CNE -->coast. It's failing to induce the ducting ('burrier') jet, so no SW tuck once the pressures rises in earnest from BGR-PSM. That fails both convention and climate to me. I mean... climate -haha. It's like, "rules: they're meant to be broken," and so too "behavior climatology" doesn't mean aspects will obey. But this is true for all models... The Euro could nail that frontal position, but blow it on these particulars. I think it is possible enough that the E end of Mohawk Trail in Massachusetts... somewhere E of North Adams and probably Orange east, might see the 0C isotherm a correct S of present synoptic scale detection. But earlier on not just sagging but growing toward the S-SW perhaps 4 to 6 hours sooner. I hate to say but the ICON ( oh Jesus-) looks more indicative.. hell, it even has the CAD nose +delta over central and NE Massachusetts prior to the other guidance, and that really fits convention and climate when considering all. At larger synopsis ... the NAM also tends to NW biases beyond 48 hours. It is possible the mean frontal position corrects SE as we get closer in, in which case 'IF' the above aspects are now-cast verifying, they may also get accelerated by that, too.

I like the NAM’s -d(t) of 14C at Logan between hrs 54 and 60. In F, 49 —> 28 in that six hrs. Strongly hints what’s goin on in the interior W-N. I mean if Logan goes from WSW to NNE and dramatically paralyzes the sfc in sub 0C there’s most likely a 925mb ageostrophic jet ducting SW east of the Whites and it WILL destroy guidance if that sets up. NAM beyond 48 hrs notwithstanding …

I think we need to adopt a TMI emoji

has been reminding me of the Jan 1994 event yup. Not saying that's an analog - I just think the result could be similar.

I'm surprised this system is bullied along so robustly in these guidance to begin with .. It's a flat wave - yeah we know .. But, it's also being pulled up through a larger synoptic confluence at mid/U/A levels. The OV is the 'rejoining' axis of the southern stream with the northern stream. Yet this just has enough identity left after the fact ... (GFS and company) to get interesting after the fact. I've been on the fence with that. 1 .. models tend to see the mid range through a magnifying glass. Scoping out middling events as majors, minors and middling ...etc, has been a leitmotif of the global numerical models - particularly the GFS. This seemed to be a good candidate for that sort of gradual attenuation as the run cycles went by. Doesn't seem to be happening, however. Interesting... 2 .. maybe that's what the Euro's been after .. but there are two issues going on with that model for me. One, it thinks this is attenuating, but two, it is not handling the N stream/confluence and the particulars of the higher pressure up N the same way. Not sure why... just what the model behaviors been doing. Obviously, that is hugely instrumental in what ptype occurs where. 3 .. one aspect I like for QPF is that there is a staggered formation in the jet fields, where the 850 mb rides NE up and over the frontal interface, and underneath a 700 mb exit region from E NYS over SNE. Then, above that there is the 500 mb, a similar right exit region accelerating the field E, N of the 700 mb axis.. Finally, at 300 mb, there is whopper 150 to 175 kt right entrance/exit region jet blasting from ORD -CAR.. Basically that looks like this can produce a significant frontogenic banding/slantwise instability, and may be related to how the "robust" look I mentioned above is occurring. It's sort of an over-achiever because of these jet couplets.

There is no “reason” nor “rationale” “in the post below” ! One cannot believes an aspect to be true merely because they imagine and or want it’s veracity. When it’s concretely determined to be false … to persist in doing so is at a minimum determination IR-rational. Moreover it becomes an indictment of intelligence when one cannot connect with that reality Fine, then. Consider yourself humored along hence forth - with all the due respects and salutations commensurate to that social rank and recognition .. atta boy!

I mean you can look up the model verification scores for free - the NAVGEM is an UN -GOOD model... It's not designed for this type of land-based meteorology. It is used by the NAVY for NAVY purposes in the high seas and wave-guide. It's not only an UN -GOOD ( fact! ) model, it is also not even being used for the right reason when you attempt to employ it's solutions and then attempt to comparing. Jesus Christ. stop it. Unless you're mentally challenged and don't understand these turns of phrases, that's another story. If that's what's going one, we'll pat your head and tell ya your doing a great job -

18z GFS substantial correction south. actually ... this is a substantial ice storm threat for lower Missouri/southern IL up through the west OV as near as 96 hours ... speed things up in fast hemisphere friends... But, the arm of high pressure presses through Ontario and sorry,... long years of experience, that ends up with a boundary south of here. That's getting interesting... 120 hours we have overrunning pellet and cold rain streaking across the southern tier of NY into S VT and by later that evening we'll see what the entails here but I do NOT buy a polar boundary over recent snow pack, at climo cold time of year barely in the rear view mirror ...just hangin around southern NH ...no way! Not when pressure is rising through the mid range over/N of Montreal .. not happening Prolly should point out ...this next coverage is an entirely different type of system than this one. Not even the same synoptic ball park.