Typhoon Tip

It's not a mere proclivity. You need to do some reading ... not mine and then making statements that subversively diminish others. Start here, and bother to go down this rabbit whole in a realm where's a huge and still growing content that exists already in the research ambit. These cite, both directly and indirectly, content - with scientific background- that elucidates exactly what I have been trying to impress for something like 15 years at this point... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas ... scroll to the bottom, too. And there's other servers, not just this one. These are all accredited scientifically, and once you read through a few of them ... CC affects and effecting on the circulation modes is incontrovertible. In fact, if we're taking long lead forecasting seriously, it's highly recommended.

There's been these funny memes on Instagram where Shmuck steps out oblvious and with a cup of coffee and ends up looking like George Jetson ... seems like a good morning for Funniest Home Video ops

what? my thoughts are pure logic dude - at the moment anyway... nah, CC has nothing to do with why I cited MJO desk, and these other facts in present company and stream. lol, not sure we're even disagreeing on much here.

mmm... in this case, not sure agree. peppeRONI or not, the pizza isn't getting cooked with ENSO if it is decoupled. RONI does not mean there's some presence when the ENSO is decoupled. It means the coupled state is augmented and really shares a quasi state. That weird N. Pac thing that lasted 4.5 weeks or whatever eternity that was ... didn't strike me as either to be honest.

Repetitive WWBs are pretty damming, nonetheless Also, recently the MJO desk has cited comments that the NINA atmosphere appeared to be contained just to the immediate region around the Equatorial band - which in a large spatial sense implies it is largely decoupled from the hemisphere. SO, WWBs ... decoupled states ? I dunno. Sounds a little like it's dead before it hits the floor. Suppose that is true ... all it really means is that ENSO is less useful from here on out.. because "decoupled" is what happens when you ain't geddin any

13-14-15 is still on the table. Altho probably favors the latter end of that range if there's going to be an event. Obviously we have nuisance to lower level advisory issues in the nearer terms, but writing in terms of more broadly supportive for canonical events, which is beyond these foreground concerns. The 00z EPS/GEPs/ and even the typically hesitant GEFs still attempting amplitude along the OH-MA with +PNA arrival. Typical to find events during spatial-temporal reordering of the super synopsis, which this chart above lands on one of those times. The ridge in the west in this rendering may appear a bit less than ideal ( W bias)? That's true, however, this GEFs mean is the most W of the three ens. It's also retrograding W and didn't start out there. Beyond this ... ~ the 15th-18th, the hemisphere gets interesting. That +PNA lending to a bit of an H.A. signal appears slated to be a transient index state as it soon de-amplifies. However, changes in the forcing scheme upstream across the expanse of the Pacific lends to an original and new -EPO approaching the 20th. Quite amplified as of last night's means, too. No clue from this range what that will mean, but odds hugely sloped in favor a cold N/A loading period. Not a warm last 10 days of the month given the previous week's arrival into these 300+ hr mean structures...

Also by surplus” I don’t mean to imply that the model is in error with all that speed, but it could be just the same I meant surplus in the context of it’s just not needed and unwanted if you’re a storm enthusiast cause it’s definitely interfering negatively

Yeah John, happy holidays new year all that… So velocity can be expressed a couple different ways in the atmosphere. When you have a lot of isohypses - I know you this… - nearby one another than the balanced geostrophic wind velocity is going to be fast. When the gaps between them have larger spacing than the wind slows down. Short waves need to be embedded in a balance geostrophic wind field that does not offset the wind max of the short wave passing through. The other way velocity is expressed is the actual translation speed of the short waves through the medium … the compressed field contributes to that. This run looks like it has both, but in particular, seeing short waves passing over South Dakota and then leaving the East Coast just 18 hours is going to create some mechanical challenges to allowing anything to amplify… The speed of the flow is keeping the long wave open (lessening the meridian character) so that can’t happen.

heh … there’s definitely a speed surplus problem on this GFS run tho As this pattern turns you don’t no wanna end up compressed and velocity soaked

well, for starters ... I'm ( personally ) not seeing "strong screamer" amplitude anywhere around eastern N/A over the weekend. I see middling cyclones moving up into an antecedent only weakly resistant +PP, or even a neutral PP ... draped throughout New England and adjacent ON/QUE. A modestly amplified cyclone system would probably be able to erode into that regime, particularly if cuts west of ALB. But a middling system is also not transporting sickly sweet air with it, either.

That's the H.A. window though ... But I get it. People don't care about when the enhanced probability for precipitation event correlations happens, they want winter storms on the charts. I guess since the pattern change/correction event intro may be cold lacking that might present some challenges getting the wintry profile out of that period. Might have to rely on the "maintenance" system(s) that come after. Assuming the pattern persists long enough - cross that bridge ... I gotta say though, just from the veneer this is the best operational GFS generalized pattern scaffolding I've seen depicted from that model's extended range since a number of seasons...

I wasn't part of the conversation - I was at the Pat's game. fuckin' cold game ! anyway, what was the gist? I think limiting the N-S extent of the curving flow over the weekend makes sense, ... just given to the progressive and "speeding up" correction tendencies that began circa 2005 really, Frustration aside, it probably rears some corrective essence to some degree or another. But, it also brings into question how deep that L/W axis really will be 3 or 4 days on into the middle of the next week.

Fast atmosphere limits in both directions... Basically, in order to get the pelicans up here you need the meridian flow type, just the same as you do in order to curve the surfaces and create storms... You can't displace the the pig air mass any more north than you can dig S/W successfully south.

right on schedule ( then ) the Pac modulation/ collapse of the previous paradigm completes. That's opening the door to the cage of suppression, and out rushes the MJO

These clear and present examples of imperialism by the United States have got to stop or there'll be hell to pay. There could be a WWIII alright, and it wouldn't be triggered by Russia/Ukrainian identity politics/sovereignty shit. It will be the rest of the planet waking up and realizing what's going on. I almost get the feeling - or 'hope' it's just - that the we are a civility that gee, kind of knows that ? Hell, maybe even morally opposed, too. But is perhaps too nonplussed by the specter of it to know what to do. Not helping the fact that we are months and months away from any access/form of suffrage expression in the matter sufficient to have any hope of leveraging/enforcing a stop to these brazen acts by this ...fucking pantheon of demons that have come to be in charge. It's really seemingly like that. Or, if our civility really condones these acts of imperial annexing, cloaked in simple witted deceptions that are hardly hiding the real reason they are taking place ... then you deserve to your fate.

the other thing is when the MJO coherence drops I don't believe it's forcibly augmenting patterns - it's ability to do so is damped along with it. The wave does it's magic because it ignites convection that's move along and release latent heat ...that than disperses into the westerlies and contributes to planetary wave modulation ( strength/resonance/position in space ), which we observe in pattern biases ... If the wave is damped, the convection falters, no flux. I'm been a proponent for years that the MJO has this "receptive" requirement. There are times when the hemisphere is in destructive interference. There are times when it is constructive. I mean this is academic really. Even the ENSOs/atmospheric coupled states can be either positive or negatively interfering.

yeah, that could work... ( hint, I'm consummately having to run back along these posts and tweak edit words in and out like that. ) not that any would notice.

Hypothesis, but one I've formulated for knowing both the planetary wave spacing but also the interference schemes over time. I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from propagating out of the marine sub-c. As an aside, the WPO was really more of a hybrid. I'm inclined to suspect we didn't observe a better performing -WPO hemisphere. Rather, one guided by an odd and possibly 'unique' blocking circumstance ( could be historically notable, tho under the radar) One that just happened to overlap the WPO domain and sag the numerology by intrusion. It's the difference between numbers, and then the actual synoptic/spatial placement of features in practice. That thing was a bit too east. It was also for 10 days too S at times which was interesting. But it was balanced by a trough that partially overlapped the WC of N/A down stream... which doesn't typically parlay very well here for winter enthusiasts. The cold loading is where but the ridge was a negative interference...

Both aspects are true (bold ^) ... I don't believe anyone in the conversation this morning imposed a notion that it was ALL CC. It was probably me if that was the case HAHA. in which case my bad if so. I don't think I did but whatever. From me anyways, a lot is intended for dead-panned humor and commiseration. Anywho, I was raised through the 70s and 80s last Century... which in prose may sound like I must be 120 years old but I'm just middle aged. I have the advantage of life in both eras; I was around before the CC acceleration began to take place, and am so now ... I am also educated in Meteorology and Climate, which helps. The dearth snow periods of history, they are not always caused by the same governing circumstances. That's A. So, it's like comparing Ali to Tyson. There's inevitably going to be generational bias, too. We're human beings. So that's where you're right about that subjectivity. However, data is glaring. There are certain aspects that are also truthful anecdotal accounting, adding to the hard science. There are papers passing through the accreditation related to faster hemispheres/jets. Also, so called "meanders" ... these are pattern aberrations from normal, that when CC is removed they do not take place in computing labs. The synergistic heat waves killing at greater mortality en masse around the world... Flights setting air-land speed records with greater frequency while taking advantage of west-east flowing winter time jets moving along at a 3rd sonic speed... And just the observation of height compression, which is related to that. The extraordinary snow and rain rate events that exceed normal, observations in terms of increasing frequency - how many 500 year events do we have suffer in just 10 years before they are no longer just 500 year deals) again ... world over. Rays right. We are observing these environmental changes regardless of leading indicator spectrum - meaning the combination of various air, land, sea indexes. I've been trying to raise awareness about this, in here ( which isn't not exactly moving humanity hahaha) for years, frankly.

Yeah, i'm just being tongue in cheek there. Altho, i have become less annoyed over the years by these dearth winters. in fact, that journey has begun to conjure more and more resent for winters, in general - not that anyone asked. I'm sitting here fending off fantasies of the smells of higher dp air. Crispy TCUs at sunset. Baseball games. Hot girl disk golfers that show god's fantastic artistry when they rotate there hips and upper sinuous through a throw... oh man. nice bike rides and low energy bills.

not a bad surmise, all sarcasm aside ... the compression, unfortunately for some readers and types out there, is what happens when the polar winter imposes on a CC footprint - the latter is not going away. the polar region is in fact warming at a faster pace than the mid and lower latitudes around the planet. check. however, the key is 'warming' - it is not warm. And in fact, where we are along the climate curve ...? the polar regions are still imposing a > +d(G) during seasonal plummet comparing prior climate generations. note, we are saying heights - there's also a catch there. temperature variance in latitude, in the lower troposphere, don't always reflect all that. heights are after homogenization of the whole system ... and there's still going to be -40 fuckum F cold air masses despite the deep atmosphere speeding up because the gradients in the winter are base-line like an elephant sitting on a trampoline. blah blah ... but yeah, that predicament sort biases that type of motion.

acceptance will set you free

it's pretty much dependable

The model tenor as of this morning ( really... for the last 10 years - ) heading into that pattern after the 10th .. 11th, yeah, ... ample cold, but once again, it means compressed heights and damping of trafficking S/Ws that would otherwise buckle at short scales enough to induce events.

Ops are detecting this at this point tho so far appear to be favoring the latter range. The period is fluid for now…