Typhoon Tip

Candidate for a podcast/ or radio show

That may be gravity wave attributable in CT on the NAM.

One of the more fantastic en masse ens corrections for a system that impressively deep ( in terms of implication) I've seen at 72+ hours ... Here's the thing, usually that type of depth in an ens mean isn't really seen until it's almost on top of the event - it's an indication that there are few if any really, members that stray off into shitsville. Stunning collocated agreement in amplitude - but then to move that to that particular location ...yikes. I don't wanna over state what the models are ... pretty much overstating for us. But if the Euro comes in at this sort of range and marries to the GFS, confidence in this going from an impressive event to a blockbuster/historic implication goes up a notch. Which then would enter the next level problem. Grandiosity is not really one can forecast very well or count on - rarely so. It almost has to materialize out of just an impressive looking storm that then goes out of control. The last time a system modeled historic, and ended up that way, is definitely 1993 and perhaps waiting 30 years to see that again. Interesting aspects going on now..

Late last night I recall musing a 50/50 chance that we were about to see the full Monty solution. I thought it might come per the 00z ... In principle, it seems the last 18 hours in aggregate were really taking the clothes off. This run of the NAM/GFS seem to have finally pulled the trigger on availing of that unused spatial aspect in the modeled trough geometry - there's been NW adjustment room for this all along.

There it is... up under LI boom

GFS did roundly better - so far - no argument. We'll see how it finally verifies before rendering the final comparison. Having said that, in fairness, the other models have come or are coming around, in time. Let's not get crazy. It's day 3/4 and we have this going on. It's not like these other guidance dawned on the day and waited until that 7 am run to collapse in favor of an outlier.

I get it... but, we have to bear in mind, Upton has the population of alien world living inside 50 buroughs ... It's thankless job for them, because they are not culpable if they are wrong about a storm, but they get their nuts pulverized if they wrong about a sunny day. They kinda have to lean on warning the public because of the unfairness.

I told you earlier...I've been using my Jedi powers to move that house sucker low to LI... My plan is almost complete -

Bump … no sooner

Ha! so elegantly conservative ... awesome

In 'is ear

oh my god

Yeah... look, as recently as 2008, there was something like 6-10" of busting positive snow some random Tuesday afternoon up here over interior/eastern zones, and what transpire on the grid-locked roads, serious caused a 5 hour commute for some people trying to drive 15 miles. It was a dense burst of 3"/hr rates, into one of those micro-transient cultural vibes of obliviousness like you described was going on with 1978's morning hours of laissez-faire coffee and crumpet business as usual attitudes. This shit happens. You dump a foot in 2.5 hours onto an incredulous, (head) dense demographic ... you're fucked. 1978 did 20-30 in 18 hours really

Mm... that made more sense as of the 7am ... I'm willing to call that a little of a conservative bias at this point, if that is still the way they perceive this situation. There's still time, anyway, so it's not a knock if they were to wait to pull headline triggers. But that GFS statement isn't entirely true as of the scalar moment. There's other guidance that bring goods and wind to an ~ PSM-HFD line, enough so, to justify a Watch spanning the region-->SE. The super ensemble mean that Megamike supplied few ago isn't just the GFS. It means a lot of players are in on this thing.

It may not represent on this cycle ( as I'm sure this post will be ignored - ), but now that we are into the NAM's out solar system reach of this thing's vision, it may at any time come at us with it's typical NW bias. In this particular leading scenario, any such NW bias will = historically powerful d-drip dosing. It is of paramount importance that you not let ... oh fuck. who the hell am I kidding

1/2 mi vis 33 1/3" ...really just started up ~30 min ago

It slows/back builds then starts pivoting S (modeled)

True... but, this is going to have an elevate hook back MAUL. We might not need that direct isentropic burst just because the beast is so exceptionally far formed. So... with a CCB running underneath it can get dicey for some zones. But yeah... in an ideal sense... probably lightning and thunder in the witches crouch (the occlusion wedge) where said MAUL is elevating over the CCB flow ... But that's SE of the coast. It should bend back and parallel for a spell far enough W to clip along and SE of PVD-BOS. Maybe makes up for having the isentropic 10" gift before the wind type of storm. If this ticks NW a couple more times, move this along. Should be moderate with nasty wind gusts, say PWM-NYC

NW of previous... Frankly, no model has shown a stoppage of the trend NW. If this continues, and I've outlined why there is room for that to do so, than it's only going up. It could certainly halt at any time... plus, ha nothing's actually happening yet. But there's room and reason to see how this can end up more NW.

The great "Caddy Shack" storm of 2026?

This slotted my region during the Boxing Day storm in 2010. We ended with just low end advisory. We had 4" of arctic sand that was falsely reported a 6+" but a debate for another time. The wind was impressive enough that the plows in town were throwing sparks because the roads were scarped clear. What was interesting about that result is that there was modeled a mysterious notch in the QPF charts that was in fact stabbing down from interior Maine down into these tuck towns E or the Wor Hill/91 S... Dismissed it as noise. wrong. To your point, we never closed the T DP gap during that event - I know, because I looked. The closest was about 5 F... 16/11 with light arctic grits whirled around by turbine gusts.

I've been trying to will that sucker to the southern beaches of LI for a couple of days to be honest, yet all my Jedi powers have managed apparently is kissing ACK... It's been considered. Also, noticed this system appears to also be expanding in recent runs. Radially farther W-N. Seeing more of those fractal frontogenic banding features that typically arc the NW periphery of these things.

That's turning into a hyper storm in that depiction no question. CCB cosmic jet heh.

I wrote a tl;dr on page 68 that discusses some of those trough axis idiosyncrasies we've been observing. I spent ... more time than I responsibly should have ... going over those fundamentals of Met wrt the various guidance sources, and spoke about them in that missive. Paraphrase, there's still NW correction room in this whole thing. Longer recap: the S/W ridging that rolls out ahead of trough amplificaiton has been either under done by error, or, just gong to be anomalously weak in this case. I leaned on the latter in that discussion, just because I couldn't find a guidance that has a better more "balanced" looking roll-out ridge. But that is an important feature when system's are creating their own positive feedback arena - during life cycle of the total wave space. The end result of which tends to position the axis farther W than the eastern flank of the trough - which is what all guidance has been consummately doing... I also discussed that the ridge west has been relatively well anchored near MT longitude, and the trough has been en masse tending to stretch E. That's also a correctable aspect. Your ICON above seems to evince the latter concepts... at least, showing how the total wave geometry matters in this. The ridge in the west is, if anything, nudged W by pubes ...but the trough in the east is also simultaneously availing of the total trough space and not as biased on the eastern flank.

I thought there was a 50/50 shot of that "give up and finally do it" look by the other models per the 00z's last night. That didn't happen... We did, however, continue pulling ticks off. That keeps the trend alive, but it also kind of smacks like a capitulation move may still be in the works. On to the 06z, still no fuller commitment, but yet more biting NW ticks. The only source that did not bite NW for ~41.8 miles of inflamed social media significance overnight was the 06Z Euro AI. Which actually tried to sneak a SE adjusting bum pump while no one was looking ( good luck getting that past this group). Until I know exactly "how" the machinery of these AI models work to produce their output, I shall remain dubious, either way. Having said that, the 06Z GFS AI finally brought the deep QPF as far NW as about me. I'm not necessarily taking that verbatim either. I don't know... there's still room to bodily bring this NW. At a larger synoptic consideration, the ridging component of this local time scale +PNA ( nested inside a longer termed -PNA as it is... I showed this yesterday), is actually anchored along a climo axis that has pummeled SNE to the point of punching breathing holes through snow in lore. In this case and so far, the amplitude has been nesting into the trough consummately biased on the eastern flank. That's possible... Basically, anywhere within with the trough offers a non-linear constructive interference.. It seems the GFS is the model system that is using that wiggle room - whether that actually occurs, notwithstanding. So... we might get that capitulation move. We might not. It may tick or two a couple more cycles and then all models have converged on a lock down testicle tickler for everyone but SE zones. Or it may not fully capitulate, but be enough so that we take a foot of reasonable return on investment. All these are still on the table, even at this range. There are two structural aspects I spent some time observing about the model recency, all sources. One, ...the lead space short-wave-ridging that rolls out ahead of amplifying troughs, is either erroneously under constructing in this, or, it is just going to be anomalously challenged. I kind of lean on the latter, because all guidance appear to have middling rollout ridge responses to this. That's an important aspect for getting this thing NW. Without it or a weaker version etc... we see this tendency to drift/bias E shortly after the RI phase of cyclogen captures the U/A via height falls and collocates. More rollout ridge, makes that move more NW or even stall so that said cyclogen can force it all more tucked. This doesn't end the story though. It's just that we'd like to see more rollout ridging. This could end up NW without out thru idiosyncrasy. Two, these models don't have very good 300 mb entrance fan jet situated NW of the mid troposphere height falls. I didn't not say 0. Is said 'ungood'. It's there is some of them, but could be better. It is a pretty important structural aspect that contributes to expanding precipitation NW of these lows. The NAM/Canadian and the Euro partially, all three have more of it... Curiously, the GFS has almost none. That's odd. Below is the GFS left, CMC right