Typhoon Tip

One could drive from Caribou ME ot Pittsburgh PA and never see a cloud today

Put some thoughts down re that coastal system the Euro/GGEM/GFS are hard selling over in the tropical thread. Little suspect that it's being over-amplified at this range. we'll see -

The global numerical guidance have been formulating a mid and upper level vortex along the M/A for several days worth of cycles... It's unclear why they are so deep at the surface, however...when there's only modest at best baroclinic instability below the 700 mb in that region astride the M/A. You need the fuller vertical integration to succeed a sub 990 mb -type powerful cyclone genesis. mmm, so I'm a bit suspect of the Euro/GGEM/GFS as being too amplified. They could be right .. but I also think a 00z UKMET -type solution is more possible. This is based on a couple of concepts. One, modeling tends to too much amplitude beyond D6 as a standard correction ... They'll lose some 20 ... 30% kinematic layout as that time range comes into the D4s. How many times has the d-drip euphoria of the D8 bomb turned into a 4-6" jack in the winter for example. Two, if there's a hybrid lurking in destiny, it would probably have to come from a weaker initial 500 mb closure than the Euro-like solutions are presently selling. It's almost like 'thermodynamic momentum' Pig extra-tropical gyres have a lot of cooler mass/momentum, so it takes longer to modify the kinematics toward a warm profile. If the initial trigger is a weaker mid level instability, the machinery (outflow aloft) from ongoing festering convection instantiates and starts to feedback with inflow into festering convection ... conversion doesn't have as much to overcome. In some rare cases, a stronger initially cold core gyre may transition, provided the surrounding hemisphere is very supportive ( 1990 "perfect storm" scenario). So it's not impossible - but rareness immediately assumes 'less likely' in this case.

Foundation upon the countless cardiovascular and/or metabolic disorder corpses laid to rest by consumption of refined grain carbohydrate technology, no doubt

It's a drug addiction metaphor. It feels really good ( immediate dividends on growing season...) until it is no longer sustained, and then it's is horror story journey to either a demise, or a helluva lot of hardship to recover.

If by minor changes we mean upslope snow occurrences over a couple ... three different flat windy CAA intervals, with an in between season's first synoptic snow possibility - verification notwithstanding - before Halloween? sure

What does 'RONI will be moderate', mean. RONI is inherently an ONI minus a spatial limitation because the ENSO band is being increasingly isolated by the HC expansion, but also just because the oceanic basins are blazin' away anyway - it's really all fucked up. So a "moderate" RONI implies a decent amount of muting effect? I guess. If we really understand what that means both conceptually and wrt the practical mechanics, the ENSO scalar numbers may rise and fall below a wider and wider gap of threshold/boundary. In other (hypothetical example range) words, we'd going need to observe an ENSO sigma be > +1.5, or < -1.5, to really correlate to the general circulation modes of the mid latitude. Otherwise, it only looks at times like it is correlating, but interceding random variances then break correlation, which denies the assumption of a truly coupled state. My own present intuitive feel for this ( ...seeing as that's worth so much shit, lol ) is that we are not going to see an ENSO breach whatever the lower bound is. That said, the non-warm ENSO is a kind of false La Nina, where the winds behave like a cold phase but it's not really in that mode - good luck parsing out how much in either case. Isn't CC so much fun

Another in these so-called 'fake cold' mornings.. 37 with car top frozen dew, nothing on the lawn though. Meanwhile, 45 was the low up on the hill at Worcester AP. Up to 57 ... goodly bounce is going on. Looking at NAM soundings... should be about 76 if it were July, but with sloped tepid October sun, maybe just a 70 nick. Not sure... it's getting late in the solar shoulder season and we're really only 4 weeks from entering the perennial min so some challenges.

No chance their just parroting what's meme-popularized in the razor sharp cutting scientific insight and intuitively gifted social mediasphere, either, huh

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread. LOL seriously tho.

So ...what exactly was I going for LOL

Okay, I was responding to that post - within which you did not specify "this country" I wasn't aware if there's any back ground context preceding - Having said that... I agree in so much that people don't notice what does not cause them inconvenience more directly than it has. However, the fact that there are examples of this abroad should cause some pause anyway ... but that's perhaps a different discussion.

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data; and a negative feedback of the former preconditioning, they suffer bad processing and "unconstrained interpretation" of the daily tsunamis of "humanity's honesty". They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), so then reality looks like an unmanageable unhinged cloud of threats to them. It's really become sociological crisis in society. All dimensions. Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, seeds frenetic states, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. There's also a goodly amount of moral degradation because the illustration that same information drowning is painted in, is almost always dystopian and mimicry of selfishness - why is anyone willing to bend over society, when society looks like it's "bending them over". And then ...asking them to judge characters and vote? - good luck It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. It's not just America either. It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon. It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity. --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis... It's not gonna end well, folks.

I play this game every year. I try for October 15; not sure what my success vs failure in winning that date is on average. I've had years where I could not make it ... like it was 48 in the place some dawn, with frost out there on the lawn, and yeah, the forecast was 64 for high but mmm. The house has a 'cold memory' when the sun's not exactly heating the house this late in the year. One year ..I think it was 2009, my in-laws had ripening tomatoes and new yellow flowers on Thanks Giving as we toured their huge garden in cargo shorts weather. I think I made it to early Dec that year ... It was 57 in here this morning. I could have given the place a puff of heat but it feels weird to do that when it's going to be 80 from Saturday to next Wednesday ...

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-antarctic-sea-ice-emerges-key.html

This really isn't true... (bold). There is well documented increased frequency of phenomenon that struck agriculture. The objective/observed reality of the Serbian climate refugees, a diaspora out of native farming regions due to climate change took place 15 years ago, and caused political-geodesic instability too... That's already occurred. There is empirically measured oceanic level rise that is inundating island nations, and also effecting an increased frequency of coastal storm impacts. Increasing numbers of deadly heat waves have struck European regions. Droughts in Australia have become increasingly more desiccating over time. All but impossible hydro management due to low predictive onset of excessive extremes of rainfall and associated inundation, followed by extraordinarily fast drying phases, have been plaguing interior Eurasia and Asia proper. All of these examples are both empirically measured, then ... mathematically proven to be attributed to alterations in the climate, which are connected to changes in the atmospheric circulation modal behaviors, all around the globe. It may be suffice it to say that they haven't happen enough? Not enough so to really garner the attention ( that they should...), which enables this kind of disrespect of the significance, and also ... false narrative/presentation - that would be apropos enough. But saying hasn't been the case, is false.

yeah, this description ^ is more so here. I called it frost, but it wasn't the direct crystal condensation variety. The dew on the car tops froze aoa 36. No evidence of grass/ground coverage. Very marginal. So I guess this was the nadir, now we go hugely the other way. If the high really does anchor right on top like the guidance pin then the nights may decouple and favor cold in New England at nights relative to the total synoptics of the GL/OV/NE region. Big diurnals, with some weighting down of afternoon readings.

Oh, I see what's going on. It's the same modeling phenomenon I've been noticing happening during JJA/summers lately for that matter. Guidance et al have this tendency to anchor and stall the surface high pressure right on top of us. Meanwhile +2 or more sigma 500 mb ridges roll over the top... Getting a Bermuda surface ridging actually S of our latitude seems to be a difficult feat by modeling nowadays - at that charm to the climate change till I guess... But the idiosyncratic limitation on heat then kicks in because high right on top, stops proficient mixing. The models don't seem to like doing it from just diurnal overturning alone - they like to have some sort of WSW gradient actively doing the mixing for them. That's probably why we see all the current 80+F prognostic 2-meter temperatures stuck back in the Great Lakes.

While it's certainly enough to delay any affectation of seasonal change ... I'm not seeing that the 850 mb/lower thickness intervals as being very excessive - relative to climo. It seems the models are trying to pack most of this late heat spell into the 500 mb heights. Sometimes I wonder if the modelers put coefficient muting factors into the framework. Control run-away excessive scenarios from taking off. Like "synergy" blockers. - just sarcasm. Whatever it is, the 500 mb non-hydrostatic impression alone looks straight up like a streak of days hosting record breaking temperatures... But, the lower troposphere is being held too cool to realize that. In 2020 ( and I think last year too - ), we saw 80F in the first two weeks of November. It's not too late to cook up some heat. Things have to be ideal though this late.

36 fantastic drainage decoupling night. 1K ORH never lower than 44. Big ranges... "fake" cold as the locals often play it

Not gonna beat the dead horse again, but as I posted several times, it’s just the biological pathology of evolution that we are slaved to physical senses; we don’t believe it until it hurts, by the time climate change hurts … it will be too late; so that’s why we’re doomed I could’ve written the book he wrote I’m sure

at a glance we're frosting in the interior in SNE's climo cold spots dunnite. should have no issues decoupling with DPs in the 35-40 range under gaping wound heat hemorrhaging sky. not sure if the DPs do that 7 pm bounce back

Man, check out MEX machine numbers. They're over +15 ..approaching +20 at a D5 range. It's getting easier to do that now that we're into October ( +15 on July 20th is about 108 F haha), but still... MEX is weighted by climatology the farther out in time. By any D5, there's a significant amount of negative weight there - unless they've changed that product derivative/philosophy... But these numbers in the 00z run are up into the low to mid 80s from BDL to ASH on Sunday. Upper 70s to low 80s beginning Saturday thru mid next week, otherwise. The subtext to this being ... if removing the climate weighting, what's the "real" potential here. I gotta figure it's not a lot higher though - not sure the sun is up to the task this late in the year. What's the ceiling? This reminds me of the November balm that took place in 2020, when for 4 or so days there were 50 F lows followed by 80+F highs. I figure for that + maybe 4 to 6 degrees?

Man was that a good baseball game

you realize you just doomed not only this year, but probably the next 6 of them due to your declaration - nice goin'