Typhoon Tip

Very Jersey like ...yup. And south of Newark, too. It's funny ...there's been vitriol in the past, when folks dared the 'impertinence' of saying, "welcome to Jersey" ..re the climate bands moving N up the EC.

Two words nicely describe the Patriot prospects for today's 1pm match-up against the Bills: dead meat That's the forecast... Maybe they can pull off a "Dec 23, '97" bust

Care to wager the last of the remaining qualifying anatomical features …?

That was a pretty solid trend to be colder by a model that has a lot of trouble seeing cold air in the lower troposphere at this range - that being the GGEM.

Lol. Ray’s going to be hip deep all right… Hip deep in kids

In all these guidance doing so there is a more robust western ridge … burgeoning across subsequent runs. in fact the only thing stopping tonight’s Canadian and GFS from committing to a more coherent Miller B scenario is that the trough is too noisy. The pattern around it seems to at least transiently already be a fit… Despite not being any Tele connector support but that’s another fascination. Anyway there’s interference going on inside the trough. Those models don’t seem to know which jet max to really focus on. Like the GFS decided to go with an Ohio low whereas the Canadian tries to run a low up the ME coast and then have another new low developing east of Cape Hat. This is just crossing inside of DAY6 by the way… This is no longer a deep extended range affair

Looks like Ray’s down to one testicle …

I actually don’t have a problem with the MJO contributing some … The hemisphere appears receptive to it actually moving east of the Niña firewall. Dispersion (wave propagation) is constructively interfering. It’s just not an aspect that is on the charts at this time - It won’t drive the pattern … it may contribute. NCEP has 70+% prob for NIÑA neutralization over the next 40 days. It could in total send the pattern roulette turning for a new number. No idea what their reasoning is but these questions are worth asking.

Also ... ( sounds like self promotion but I'm really not after that - ) ... I mentioned a week or so ago that there is almost no discernible behavior in the modeled telecon spreads at the time, that necessitates an 'index' scaled correction event. That's still the case. The heavily concerted PNA is actually in process of falling negative during this next thing. It's really almost impossible to create a storm that is like what some of those runs over the last week, looked like, without the restoring/mass-field perturbation model for how/why ( physically) 'big storms' are created. Plus, on top of that ...we are dealing with paltry ambient gradient circumstance everywhere below about 55 N ...from N of Hawaii to NS. I was thinking yesterday ...this may turn out to have been a red herring 'model magnification' dupe storm, all along. Kind of like the 12th - remember that? Sure enough...the model runs since yesterday seem to be trying to devolve the whole thing. Still a long way to go... but a non-event in a way is a morality victory. Because it's not like we're "missing" an opportunity that doesn't really exist, given the former outcome.

It's not negative, it's realistic. Maybe the realistic objective take is rectal plaque - sometimes reality bends over barrels. And that's just it. Tough. Heh...late to the party today. But I figured a steady stream of grousing and commiseration therapy going on when I saw the overnight guidance...well, honestly? the guidance starting some 3..4 days ago. Anyway, haven't been let down on that "forecast" lol. We've been fighting a first week of April climatological look for a week man. I posted a statement some 5 days ago, that this reminds me of a spring modeled look. Everything contained, from modeling this last ordeal to this next thing coming, all the way out to the synopsis of the hemisphere, looks and behaves in guidance... like April 7.

God ...the only thing more ad nauseam than this weather is that bold, right there. It's not your fault, Really, Will. I don't blame you for saying it - it is what it is if indeed that is what the guidance suggests. But ...It's always 'after the 20th' this year. In fact ( sort of related to what you and Scott were just bemoaning - ), most years that under perform winter enthusiasm, do that. They always push off. so to speak.

Yup. and there's been inconsistencies with regard to that aspect, too.

well, anyway... it's incrementally improved for winter enthusiasts ...I wouldn't sweat much. The signal for 12th -16th has really been consistent. Folks can't expect to be model doped with d-drip at this range. Especially because we're in a marginal atmospheric space and probably still will be heading into the period of time. There does not appear to be any present index suggestion that a major correction in the models is necessary to happen... Today was marginal. Finally got its act together...with far less dynamic power as that that thing on the 14th has, too. It was modeled pretty warm all week - then yesterday we we had to put Advisories up. So, I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic...

Also look at N. QUE with a 1050 high ... That's very cold air associated with that enormous +PP... If that mass were adjust S not even that much and that thing really gets wound up like a top.

It's doing something similar to the GGEM's 12z solution ...which is to split open the event into two distinct phases... The first is an intense isentropic lift event, with perhaps 6-9 hours for a band of impressive QPF to move through, ...transitioning from snow to rain as it goes. Then it's ENE gales into the coast and elevations inland, with mist everywhere, while the low deepens east of Jersey with the capture, cut-off drifting E from there. At that point, there's modest dynamic support of cooling and CCB cat-paw band might end with accumulating snow. Snow-rain-snow away from the coast in total, but there's two distinct pulses of QPF. I'm not sure the models are handing the slow movement of the atmosphere ( can't believe I'm saying that since 2010!!) ...but much in the same way they screw things up when the flow is fast. In this case...there doesn't appear to be any reason to eject the isentropic engine like it's doing there around 180 hour and running up the Maine coast like that. Lows don't typical just puke their guts and turn inside out like that.

You’re setting sights on next year like this year is already over lol. I just posted though it does feel more springlike out there like we’re stuck in some kind of limbo maybe an extended autumn but if it goes on much longer whence the sun angle starts coming back, it really will start transitioning into an early spring. … we simply cannot sustain winter without cold air duh. But… I’m just old enough and have experience just enough in this Kocamemi game to not throw in the towel on Jan 6 – no way. I’m speaking speculatively if we divorce from a winter hemisphere like this … we can’t add sun and expect aspects to break in favor of winter enthusiasts.

I choose not to bring it up in the court of the lord of the flies.

Climate change … La Niña … or both or just bad luck aside … there’s an inescapable sensation like your looking at model runs, and actual daily weathers, as though it’s circa March 13th out there

It’s trended bigger more powerful feature overall but it still looks like it’s trying to close off too early and it’s dubious whether there’s any northern Stream involvement in this thing… But I wouldn’t focus on those details there’s definitely a trend there across all 12z guidance

At the moment it’s snowing somewhere between moderate and heavy with uniform moderate aggregates size. But 1/3 mile visibility accumulation more uniform on all surfaces.

Well we’ve managed to put together a couple solid hrs of light moderate snow after flip-flopping for a couple hours this morning. The snow is accumulating unevenly even on the ground/non-paved areas. It’s very spring like it’s like a snow in early April where it accumulates in clumps with bear areas in between. Although just in the last half hour it seems like it’s trying to get more uniform

Well regardless of ptype… The GEF signal trended toward the typology for powerful coastal storms. For 180 -219 hrs? This 12z cluster’s about as coherent for climo Nor’easters as can be … unfortunately that can be rain or snow but like I said… ptype aside. The op Canadian is actually a leading entropic lift event… and then when the storm winds up it actually doesn’t even have a CCB on land

What the MJO is doing right now has nothing to do with whatever’s happening 12th-16th. That’s A B, there are other factors far more powerful in dictating the mid latitude hemisphere for temperature distribution. The MJO’ is not one of those. C, the MJO “might” contribute… Or assist in modulating the pattern out in time – and there is absolutely a lag correlation. But it does not drive the pattern. Frankly it’s a little bit odd that this MJO wave is modeled to do what it’s doing in the first place, given to the antecedent an ongoing climate footprint But, climate like rules are certainly meant to be broken from time to time… And I can’t think of a better time than during climate change for that to occur - as a bit of snark humor lol MJO either constructively interferes or destructively interferes… And depending on which determines how much a given wave’s modulation can actually occur. The hemispheres might be receptive (constructive) with the MJO in phase 8 – 1 -2, just based on the uncouple La Niña state of the Pacific - which is not only looking more Nino like, it’s doing so rather violently… Which is a whole nother complex conjecture. But if so it would be later than next week

No overnight… that little critter for the 9th did come back in the models. This is no declaration as to it success… but there is a presentation there. … a minor ordeal that favors southern zone as it were.

Looks like that will have to happen in order for this to get anywhere close to a 2 to 3 inch accumulation… Just looking at the behavior of this so far, as other people have noted, very intensity related. When that band went through we did flip over and wasn’t falling heavy or anything but it definitely was convincing aggregates. As soon as the radar showed that band attenuate we’re right back to the light sleet and light rain routine. We’ll have to see if the meso models were on this or full of shit