Typhoon Tip

Fwiw, it's a historic in depth no question... It's sub 965 in the Boston Harbor. I'm not worried at all about ptype, despite this run running liquid as far W as ORH, because that's clearly model BL hallucinations when the 500 mb is < 520 DM in the core of 4 or 5 contoured isohypsotic canyon. That's likely snowing everywhere accept the elbow. You almost want the model doing that at this range in a weird way...

It's not a high risk for occurrence ... but, should it bully into the Ohio Valley and dig more, we end up dealing with some sort of possible storm implication with that...and it would not be abundantly clear whether it would effect the upstream arrival of the one we are currently targeting... It's just that it's a non-zero chance for interference ...but it's low for now. I wouldn't call it a 'turd' Winter' lol... but if we must, hey - it's really really polished!

We will also have to keep an eye on that lead bundle of mechanics that gets inserted into southern Canada between 120 and 144 hours… As is it’s not bad as it’s dangling precipitously capable of hooking in, but if it gets any stronger it will change the entire landscape of the mid range.

What the operational euro is doing from what I’m seeing is it’s stalling in the Gulf of Maine …generating new subsidiary lows within that general pan and then bouncing the circulations around the common center kind of Fujiwara. Somebody in northern Maine probably get about 40 inches of snow out of that a single dose but whatever that thing is doing at this range I find it hard to believe that a 975 MB is going to go over the other half of Cape Cod and we only get 9 inches of snow west of Boston. There’s some intra-trough negative interference going on. … All silly details it’ll be completely different inside of a couple of runs.

Wow wtf

Coalescence in the GEFs re mid U/A. All carry deep geopotential medium toting powerful wave astride the EC Average Max centers on 200-220 hrs with more than half expressing this as a multi contoured closed embedded 500mb sfc. SFC evolution varies more … but all have cyclone of significance associated with this impressive, what also appears to be heading for the time being, toward multi stream phase.

Lol maybe a bigger “plow” if the metaphor is confusing

This may be a little early to begin a thread, but this signal's weight is excessive. Large events often capture space/time in the technology, well prior to the longer term performance averages. This appears to be one of those times... Having said that, this is only 7..8 days away, which a system of this type/scale and given to the above facet, moves the dial on that ( I feel..). Further justification - if needed - in the fact that the synopsis begins to scaffold by just 5 days from now over the NE Pacific, and then rapidly ensues that contortion of the local hemisphere into really ... excuse the hyperbole, a scenario that has one pathway out: 'through the cage' as they say in the Plains. The PNA is rising ...most importantly it is reflected over the eastern limb, where is the relay from the Pacific --> N/A ... This drives a "jolt" local hemispheric index mode change, taking the Perennial North American Pattern aspect of the total PNA domain, and sending into a rather robust correction necessity. Ridging that has been absent more so than less, over western N/A burgeons over the continent. The super-synopsis, where is the correction vector, is in fact pointed at something large, so as these operational models have been more on than off, with bomb implications, well duh. The 12z to 00z EPS shift in the means centered on 12z this next Friday the 23rd is nothing shy of exceptional. That much geopotential height implosion, combined with southward single run modulation geometrical layout is about as coherent as the current state of technology is capable at this range.. I am aware that the GEFs is are little more vague about this period, ...as are recent GFS operational runs. However, the GFS also spend 2.5 days worth during the run up to the current affair... with 0 system! It's not like there is no precedence for it losing systems in this range. The super-synopsis with the teleconnector modality in the PNA now through the end of next week... coming from the GEFs no less, does not offer as much support for the GFS. So there's some heavy wording above -yup. However, that's in deference to the 'signal'. I am however greater that 50% confident in at minimum a significant multi-faceted event. There is some concern with "model magnification" ( I suspect this situation may transcend that performance snag, however) and the usual other assortment reasons to not go completely bonkers at this range. But I feel this is situation that enters the commitment to an event earlier than normal, the rest will decide the scaling and wheres. Man... that 00z EPS wih a 988 mb low near Cape Cod a 210 hours is really astonishing... What concerns me about the GEFs is that it's "mode" is more intense and committed to a solution that the mean is appears to be vaguer... That's a red flag that outliers and skewing the signal - I don't like that when said outliers are against the supers-synoptic signaling.

I feel like that’s true up and down route 2 down here as well

Might still be breaking early. Interesting trends tho.

I only got it through 186 so far but it is bringing better western bridge expression in. And it does look similar to the icon type of scenario with a very strong pacific jet diving into the Mississippi Valley and the western end of that subpolar vortexes vulnerable to collapsing south …that is a dire scenario if that happens.

Looks like two. Pack S/w subsumed by an inevitable N stream/spv segment. storm enthusiast probably don’t want triple Stream phasers even though it sounds cool to say that ha ha but seriously triple stream phasers tend to require full latitude, which means they’re happening at planetary scales …which means they’re moving really fast. Two stream phase have better mechanics for slow down/ install and do retrograde etc, pounding winter weather for many hours

The key difference there is noticed the western ridges come inland now it makes a big difference in the spatial forcing. So it’s moving south underneath the western end of that sub polar vortex and it’s enticing it to come south. that’s about to set up a subsume phase. It reminds me of some of those 1970s winters.

That ICON model is about to explode something truly exotic at the end of this run. Some of the most powerful mid level jet max velocities associated with that torpedoing mid west wave I can recall in years. Heh. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s now plugging into the 20-24th aspect I say it’s just being strange.

Mm talking about stuff that’s already happened though… Looking back in lore, the biggest events were in the models for like 15 days or something prior to the actual event verifying. At minimum a week. This signal got really bright about three days ago and it’s actually been there in vestige probably prior to that for several days as well right out to the very edge of the ensemble means when it was back when. If this becomes a blockbuster event do we add this to the list of those that showed up really early in the guidance I’m not talking about people setting up their expectations. I’m talking about how to use this as a prognostic tool

I wonder when ‘ big events show up really early in the guidance ‘ should apply

Lol but actually … if it snows prodigiously enough east of ~ HFD-ASH line the original assessment would have been off altho … I was pointing out that an eastward adjustment would not be altogether unexpected. Also … moderate vs minor vs major. Heh. Subjective. To me 10 inches is moderate and I don’t think we’re getting 10 inches because if we do it’s gonna be 8::3 1QPF hahaha would be almost 2 inches lol. actually … Ha. We could be trending towards CCB strike over the eastern part of the AFD In which case… we bring the 850 therm down to the surface and we end up with an iso thermal -1 Celsius …even get blowing snow off the eaves as a wtf’er event

For winter storm enthusiast you just need to get that thing under Long Island as opposed to curling up thru Pennsylvania a New York state I mean we’re in signal recognition mode but in so far as what the model run looks like there with that Canadian…. The shortest avenue to doing that would be having the western ridge push into into the High Plains as that mass of mechanics gets ejected east. The other way might be to exert more negative NAO in which case we start the Minnesota squeeze antics again.

Even down here this could have a really interesting vertical snow gradient between 200 foot elevations and 6 or 700 feet. i’m here in the Nashoba Valley area. I think Townhall sets at 196 feet above sea level. God forbid there should ever be a Canary Island bifurcation event ‘cause the tsunami might do a Deep Impact up the Merrimack into this region … Cross that bridge lol. No but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearby FIT, 8 miles as the crow flies, is into heavy parachutes in the 600’ hills while we have cat paws here at townHall

Ha … No I’m battling with my phone’s unrelenting attempt to turn whatever I write into utter twaddle that’s unintelligible ..,while sitting in a droning code meeting that I struggle to find so much as a modicum of passion for

So long as the 700 mb… and probably 850 as well, stay below Worcester to Logan axis this scenario has probably got about the best shot at a marginality surprise/blue snow event as can be set up around here. classic December of lore… Really. Now whether that happens or not comes down to I don’t know micro scale permutations that can’t really be predicted or seen. probably not a total analog? but I do agree that the first of the duel events in 1996 reminds me of this. I remember when that thing flipped over to aggregates I was between Acton and UML making the commute back up to school when that happening and I never saw the roads deteriorate so fast. Shows when you’re raining at sultry mid 30s how cold surfaces are. Right as the rain flipped to cotten balls … everything was white and there were slush ruts on the roadway sfc very quickly

Yeah… In the end the moral to this fable could turn out to be ‘don’t mess with marginality in a negative NAO’

That endgame look actually materialized in the recent GFS solutions too …Just pointing that out to the general audience. I mentioned it late last night that 0ZGFS was stalling the low at moderate depth east of Cape Ann and the CCB was into NE MA, southeast New Hampshire and coastal Maine during the overnight

There’s no accounting for stretched x-coordinate/fast hemisphere in the extended model behavior. I mean it’s something they tend to correct away from out in time, but then have to add back. That’s why I was coveting optimism actually when I saw that huge warm bulge in south eastern Canada in recent Euros - first thing I thought of is that warm ball will likely end up above 600mbs as an NAO block… Now I don’t know if that’s actually going to happen? But it more than merely seems that everything ends up correcting some 1500 km east in the atmospheric logistics moving D 11+ to D 4..5

In my old days at eastern I’d have threaded this a heart beat by now but … with this more moderate ordeal in the foreground -