Typhoon Tip

Yeah I would actually also extend this into the Hadley cell discussion… Not really exactly the same thing but sort of related. Obviously know this but the Hadley cell being more at a global phenomenon. anyway… We’ve been seeing an increased frequency of these midwinter disconnects or decoupling phenomenon between the atmosphere in the ENSOs over the last 10 to 15 years worth of winters.

Yeah I mean theAtmosphere and the La Niña are more so than less in a disconnect right now … for whatever reason they’ve entered the uncoupled state. It has ramifications… For one during this interim we should probably not be as climatologically reliant because we are in that sort of uncharted waters - no pun intended. The other aspect is that we have a fairly impressive MJO wave and I’ve been monitoring it. It looks like it’s begun to expand across the equator so it’s not just a southern hemispheric transit-according to the models. Looks like estimating about 40% of the OLR is now on the northern side of the equator extending close to 10 or even 15° latitude. So tfwiw… but these are impressive wave momentum appeals going right through the cold north America correlation. The thing that really has me scratching my head is that not only does the GEF’s EOF refuses to modulate the PNA positive - it’s making that even more negative and it’s very concerted around that as well. If that were not complex enough… There is another option. We could see a negative EPO explosion with a negative PNA running underneath it. That would suffice also for distribution/dispersion ( Non-linear wave mechanics would do that. It’s basically when instead of going directly from A to B to C, A goes to C … while B remains relatively unperturbed) that oughta make sure nobody understood what I mean…

36 here. We’ve been shedding decimals as opposed to a ‘tuck jolt’ - was kind of curious if this would do that or the ooze

Y’all should have a thread devoted to this … Clearly the interest is sufficient alone.

Lol… .25 “melted equivalent QPF is “going to town” Man we’re a pathetic sort, condition by unrelenting abuse of neglect and starving to the point where atmospheric morsels and afterthoughts go to town. Man we need a solid 14” That takes another 18 hours to end because of a nagging Norland to with an additional fluffy 3 to 5

OK so obviously people’s attention is diverted to the near term …which that should be. I’m particularly interested in that system nearing the 13th or 14th more specifically because it’s quite impressively situated in the guidance and suggestive for quite some time considering there’s been very little or no Tele connector support for it - although I’m going to check last night it might’ve changed. Yesterday we surmised the models would probably begin to focus on either the 12th or the 14th as being the more likely - seems to be they’re choosing the latter. Little worried about wave spacing and so forth amongst other stuff lol

Not sure who’s said what since yesterday … but every ensemble system there is has lit up the 12-15th like an asteroid impact over the horizon at 3am. You could practically read by the intensity of the doom glow. Word choice for fun but more practical terms it’s actually an exceptionally coherent signal considering that still 8 to 10 days from now

GFS giveth ...and GFS taketh away. It still has the period of interest but is coming out with destructive interference so nothing can develop in time.

Little critter “scenario” Something like this could easily not be taken seriously and then somebody gets a clap of thunder too. lapse rate is kind of zonked

Yeah this GFS is run is an overall modest negative AO with a Nino westerlies coming in underneath. - that’s pretty much the theme that would characterize the overall run

Euro looks NJ model -like for the 12th. Decent amplitude coming in S of Chicago. Doesn’t appear to have the SPV fragment phasing in like the GFS though

Nah. High School

I actually liked that song back then. This girl in my history class had a bum sculpted out of God’s clay. She was a tad weird in the face tho, and seein’ as I had all the profundity of the average spiritually enlightened 16 year old to go with zip self esteem. It’s funny how music takes you to a setting or person or experience in time, flashes of nostalgic light briefly illuminate the reel of memory. But that song was popular around then … it’s really not very good music. Guilty sing along.

Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly. Yada yada yada.

It’s interesting how this whole 12th through the 16th for days span has been lit up in the ensembles for so long…

It’s actually the more convincing of the two to be frank.

Essentially… Yes but at this range you know I wouldn’t be surprised if this coalesced on one of those two dates preferably in the future? That’s not unprecedented model behavior. either that or… There are two events shortly spaced within 60 hours of each other but they’re more pedestrian in nature

Suspicious that’s why the MJO is finally finding the strength to move through phases 8-1-2. Seems to be there’s some constructive interference going on there. The only contention I have other than the fact that it’s completely decoupling from the La Niña Basin … Is that the last I was aware most of the wave momentum was south of the equator. The weekly MJO publication mentioned that those phase is correlate to colder weather over North America… obviously they are right but they’re doing it in the context of this being conflicting signals.

Also I remember looking at the 06Z this morning and thinking boy… That’s really close to becoming a much bigger ordeal

Classic subsume phase scenario… Very high proficiency at that. There’s no ejecta indicating that the southern stream does not outpace; it literally turns into one singular coherent vortex. So yeah all the obvious… In terms of objective skepticism take your pick -there’s a lot of them for this. To that I will only say that the period between the 12th and 15th yada yada yada has been quite prevalent in the ensemble members. It’s kind of like the mode and the mean are a little extra different in this case… despite not really fitting into the index indicators, either. At least not very well. In fact I can’t see any numerical Tele connector that supports this kind of West Atlantic bombogenesis interesting

Starting to get that vibe tho - not committed to it or anything but it is sort of felt a little. I would never commit to it before the end of the solar min ~ Feb 10. Excessive warmth in January is truly eerily outre ( real word; poetically it means ‘unworldly’). You can go for walks in awe … looking around sort of up in angles … as though the homage to warm season put on by air sort of compels you look for it … to no avail of course. Everything contained inside that anachronistic state still remains dormant and ultimately … unappealing. Even ‘unhealthy’ or wrong. Anyway .. lots of ways to define that. For me, I’ve taken that stroll a few times. 1989 … 2007 come to mind. I’d rather not, not until after that first week of February. We escape the min and then begins an experience a little less unsettling ..Warmer sun makes it feel less weird. And it’s a waste otherwise… because like I said it’s not like we’re getting growth from foliage, greening lawns and the smell of lilacs. In fact I think there’s a lot of putrid aromas that start to manifest when it’s in the mid 60s to low 70s in January. Back 1989 I was doing the urban jungle thing with a drinking buddy in faux summer Boston, and it smelled like a dumpster fire might have been in the next street over. And then in 2007.. I was going on runs in the afternoon in suburbia whence the more bucolic variant of that was like the season’s trash was left to a fetid morass … Aromas came by along the way that made you hesitate to take the next breath - while running no less. If it’s like that EPS complexion nearing the end of the first week of February? I definitely will have zero problem tuning out this year.

Not completely sold on the 9th..10th. There’s something sort of there but the models are having trouble with detection … no doubt owing to the fact that it’s “sub index scale”, within the total circulation mechanical envelope. “Little critters that bite”, quoting Bozart. Shouldn’t be completely ignored but because of the nature of its dwarfism having smaller physical presence the models are probably going to have trouble with whether it can “bite” or not, and where.

18z ICON would extrapolate well re the 9th. GFS now cat paw QPF/..trended. Low end mechanics tho

- GFS is getting happy with the N-stream ...bullying the hemisphere E of 110 W and above 40N out there. This is actually fairly typical for this guidance. Not sure how that corrects when/if it backs off on that - MJO may be less forcing given to the momentum distribution ... as modeled. However, the current behavior of the Pacific polar jet, across the Basin is rather atypical for La Nina, indicating some decoupling is likely taken(ing) place. This latter facet does lend to MJO punching through the La Nina 'firewall'. Last year something similar happened with a strong wave presentation around Phase 8 and 70..80% of the ballast was 10 S of the equator. That matters. That said, the Basin's NINO look may be receptive/entice the wave to span. What's the SOI outlook? - 12th thru the 15th are still eligible, just by numbers of respective ensemble membership. The operational version of both clusters appear to be flat outliers. No help from the teleconnectors ...as there are two events possible ( really) through the 16th, and they are sub-index mass conservation so it's going to come down to ensemble trends more so than waiting on emergence for these.

Day 10 ...simple