Typhoon Tip

On a somewhat funner note ... beautiful display of 'Red sky at morning...' earlier.

This story still has two chapters. This evening/overnight. Friday. In chapter 1, the recent NAM pulled the rug out on anything very meaningful along the Rt 2 population ..although perhaps better out there toward Orange... The model had shown very solid continuity for about 6 cycles actually, then 30 hours prior to go time, that changed. Not sure continuity principles apply to higher res meso models that are exceptionally sensitive to almost imperceptible perturbation - you can't be sure they are picking up on something real, or eating contamination that's too subtle to notice but having a disproportionately large forcing on the solution. Still I'd like to see one more cycle do this warmer solution. Otherwise, ..nothing's changed above and below that rough latitude. This was never - in my mind - going to show along the Pike. Meanwhile, these changes in the NAM, if they hold ...probably don't mean a helluva lot from roughly RUT-MHT-PSM. The reason I'm citing the NAM so much is because this event had that over-arcing theme of suspicion that it might try to bump N in short term. It is sort of annoyingly predictable, hut ...we'll see. In chapter 2, there may even be a lull early Friday a.m., then we'll have to now-cast where destabilizing lapse rates working in tandem with mid level jet near-by blossom/fill-in rad during the morning. Looks like light snow that isn't very proficiently accumulating, with perhaps a lucky stripe or two that pushes 2-3" ? something like this...

00z NAM with .6” liq equiv burst

Funny … this was originally supposed to be a Friday thing for SNE. Folks seemed to will Thursday night over the border… If it goes back to original heh

That ends up in Buffalo ..but it's a helluva look at this range - ha. "Miami rule" in full effect on that run, too -

That's been repeating as theme across the last several cycles, btw -

Also - watching for model magnification ... It appears for the events farther out in time, each successive one of them is more powerful than the one before. go wonder - Eventually a monster really will come along ... it will definitely be bigger and more powerful than the one before. Lol. But for now, the succession is suspect.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05517-z

Better high-pressure expression over Quebec allows for a little more wiggle room there. People still need to pump the brakes on optimism. I don’t like this whole needle threader shit… It’s pissing me off actually

26th still looks interesting

Looks about the same as 0Z just timing is slightly different?

Yeah I was just looking at the synoptics and was going to say that route 2 looks like it takes a pretty good thump Thur on this 12 Z …real real narrow corridor

Quite the improvement around the 26 as well over previous cycles. Suggest the operational is along the Northwestern envelope of plausible solutions within the cluster

Quick illustration/expo on venting and larger synoptic mechanics ...this system has the classic set up really... One could argue ( maybe) that these two aspects below, could situated a little closer in x-coordinate, but this is a very classic looking couplet with 300 mb evac/entrance jet in New England (left), whilst a powerful 500 mb wind max is torpedoing its exit region into the near M/A/N/E coastal waters (right). The region between these areas will have augmented UVM potential ( lift )... This does not say speak to rain vs snow. It's a pretty common look associated with more vigorous winter storm genesis, everywhere really. But, seeing this is an indication for potential vigorous development, in both degrees of extend and rate of change.

This could not be any more quintessentially a needle threading scenario. That ICON solution... regardless of whether the model's a piece of shit or not... is a nice illustration of what that means. That goes 10 miles NW of that track and it's heavy rain a ORH. 10 miles SE, and it light snow there. But riiiiiight perfectly the model runs this thing with exceptionally precise tolerance, along the necessary track to get things interesting between ORH and BED. No problem! put all your money down on the ICON, huh

As far as for interior SNE: I don't have a problem with "correction vectoring" the BL colder, "IF" we can verify even a modest +PP CNE ... mentioned that as an 'in principle' concept two days ago. And those can be almost silent, too. It really doesn't take much ... and once the ageostrophy starts up, it can be quite weak but if it feeds into a marginal scenario that's begging for a reason to flop either + or - ... that sensitivity can decide. Looking for almost nondescript boundaries or momentum to suggest -

Sub-plot to life... Last year I got a rudely awakening snail mail from N-grid indicating their intent to disconnect me from the grid, due to an arrears mount staggering to 2400$ Umm... how's that? My house is tiny 2 floor, 2-bedrooms, 1-bath, small kitchen and small living room area. That's it. In fact, when you turn up the thermostat, it takes ... 10 minutes tops to raise the temperature from a 54F morning (in winter), to the mid 60s .. 70. It's electric heat - why this is relevant. So yea, with electric heating...I'm going to pay more than just running the appliances. Still, the footprint of this edifice is not that large. Here's what happened... I get offered an astounding .11 kwh rate from some outfit in Buffalo - can't recall their "Enronian" name ( fuckers). I signed up ...because of course I'm also an asshole - it takes two to tango. It was great through the autumn. I was paying like a 150 a month. Then, in December, they sent out a snail mail ( which c'mon! they know people don't check that often any more with an increasing reliance upon other notification closer to real-time ( this is particularly true if you are a asshole!) so they leveraged that). In that snail mail, which I found ...6 months later, they had moved the kwh rate to staggering .36, during the coldest 3 climo months of the year. So I was paying closer to 700 a month to heat and run the home, in totality, thinking that my auto payment of 150 was covering. N-grid finally loses patience come June. They're perfectly willing to cut your power in a low risk summer month - I give then mercy credit there. I immediately converted back to N-grid for supplier. Unfortunately... they sent out mail in September, blaming something having to do with natural gas for why they were going to up their kwh to .28 per. Oy! I don't buy it, frankly. I think these suppliers are in trouble .. not because of supply and demand. Lie. I think they are worried that the future will stem their means to hold society at ransom, because solar at site, and wind and solar at regional scales, et al, is starting to cut into their fossil fuel sourced power grid. That, and... due to legislation already in the works, they won't be able to access FF in 30 years...They are trying to exit trillion the industry as a strategy. But I hate all conspiracy theories unless they are my own, so taken for how little this is worth. Lol

Oh yeah - can imagine that's the case with intuitive ease. It's really also no different than a late cold snap -it's the same principle at either ends. Bottom line ...can't refreeze or your refucked

yeah it's been remarkably consistent with that axis... I looked at the old FOUS grid. It maintains essentially an isothermic 0C sounding through 800 mb over Logan, with .53" QPF ... hmm.. The numbers were 0C, 0C, +1C, at 980, 900, and 800 mb respectively. Not sure that much QPF loaded through a column like that would necessarily be rain... Comparing those numbers to the synoptic tapestry, it's near-by. Probably that's +2, +2, +4 just south of Logan out along the Pike - first batch... IF IF IF that layout verifies, we probably end up with 6" along Rt 2, ranging to almost nothing along the Pike. That may chap some winter enthusiast asses but ...I don't make the rules of these games.

Sun plays a role in that from what conversation with sappers and maple syrup folk. I 'think' that sun warms the tree limbs and that starts evaporation off the ends, setting that into motion.

Folks overall should be aware... a +6F 850 mb temperature departure from climatology, is roughly equivalent to a scalar value of 0F at that level, at our latitude. So those warm amber toned sort of chart washes belie what can happen ... in either direction. Storms can go blue... Sunny days to turn out balmy - mainly once you get beyond ~ Feb 10. What can happen is then, unfortunately, not open to a lot of wiggle room. That's the frustration of the 0C marginality system. Do the nuanced perturbations, that cannot really be assessed very well ...even outside of mere 24 hours in some scenarios, flop the temperature marginal+ or marginal- ?? That's the difference between cotton balls, IP, cat paws, or rain that smells like snow when it comes to systems. Beyond Friday's ordeal ... the 23 and then the 26th ..etc, those ( from where I'm sitting ) look like 'needle threaders' in a marginal environment. Having said that, I don't favor snow at this time. I have both seasonal trend + yes ... a little bit of CC awareness and the fact that our marginal set ups seem to favor wet over white more so in recent years + the look in the recent runs of more -EPO getting involved in this pattern change sweeping the local hemisphere - which unfortunately might pull the storm track NW if so. Those three in concert sort of canvas our probability away from snow. But probabilities are meant to be broken as they say. I certainly would not aver a snowier solution out of those can't happen. I suggest the important aspect is the persistence in space and time for systems to monitor. They are remarkably stable, regardless of interpretive synoptics as far as what they will do. And knowing that as they are happening, the Canada cold coffer is filling up... could in not should also supply some counter argument against that probability thinking above, as well. edit, should also qualify: as they pertain to SNE... obviously the picture changes with elevations W- N

way behind this morning... work meetings all morning. d'oh! But wow, that GGEM run from 00z - forget whether it snows or not, now that is how you run a pattern change.

it's a system that's 2 chapters told, really... The Thursday contention is an isentropic lift thing that's in a marginal atmosphere that "might" host some near ice issue along Rt 2 ... snow in CNE and points N looks like a good bet. ... I mean this could certainly change over the next 2 days. That sort of wanes off by 12z Friday...and then we re-bloom the QPF as a crashing column with some semblance of instability working with frotogen...etc etc...

Wondering if Friday mid day may be under sold by a little ( not a lot, a little -) That starting to look like it'll be assisted by unstable lapse rates. I could see that 'burst' with a stripe or two inside a light to moderate rad shield... Little critter does a bit better. From 06z to 18z Friday, the 700 mb T between ALB and Logan ( on average ) appears to tank by 9 pts celsius...that's pretty impressive, while there is still a 90 kt 500 mb jet max ripping by 2 deg lat S. That's crossing up some frontogenic sig with lapse rates...

So the 18z GFS has a burst of S/S- snow in the region Friday mid afternoon... oh, there's a thread for this