Typhoon Tip

that's the needle thread track sensitivity incarnate. The 06z GFS and the 12z tracks vs that snow axis -

oh ...this has to be a set up - way too easy.

...wtf does that mean... the other guidance looks like ass, but the GFS has always looked like ass. So.. .yeah, ass looks like ass. hahaha. It's funny though, this sort of reminds me of how 52 F in July is "crazy" cold and people shiver and wear jackets... but if that happens in January under tepid sun and no wind? - short sleeve shirts and gaiety posts of dopamine ... It's all conditioning. We've just been conditioned to eating so much shit this winter, here we have a less shitty look that offers mash potatoes - maybe - still likely falling short of "climatological storm profiles" (for this time of year/region) and it is like the short sleeve shirt scenario.

Okay ... in this lecture, ladies and gentlemen, we target Great Snow 1717 for migraine headache. See if you can identify the exact moment the temple sends a shard of pain behind the eye sockets - Here is the NAM's FOUS grid for Logan off the 12z run ( on right is Laguardia, but ignore that block for the purposes of this pain administration - ) BOS//792733 00513 232405 34999299 LGA//663346 00515 232106 39029500 06000773458 01415 212109 38019600 06000714265 02119 201808 41039800 12003989055 00514 171407 41010095 12007988855 02113 140808 46040200 18032989365 00409 090711 46040400 18039989357 10804 040515 51050702 24057986523 -0208 980325 49040402 24022975905 -1108 003414 45030500 30025987105 16308 953516 39000098 30008969302 04804 013115 31029995 36046978619 02909 003123 30009793 36004726812 00110 083122 28019693 42002783110 -1813 083022 32999694 The data fields I bold'ed above are associated to Phase II, tomorrow into tomorrow evening, and these numeric values are important. The "25" and "46" on the left, are QPF... That is .71" liquid equivalence occurring as of 36 hours from 12z this morning, the time of the NAM run cycle. The fields on the far right, ex "0000098" are the temperatures in C at 980, 900, and 800 mb levels. 00 = 0C. 98 = -2 C. So you can see... the next interval is 009793, which correspond to 0C, -3C, and -7C at those respective levels. I think this is in process of still modulating in the guidance however.. .The reason I suggest that is because of those middle values, "35" and "31" - those correspond to wind direction. 35 = 350 deg around the dial starting from N ( 0 deg/360 deg). And so 31 = 310 deg and so on. Here's the thing, typically you don't get bigger QPF numbers on wind directions that have backed that far into a W direction. When you see a NW wind with QPF, that is part of the notorious ANA fake-out effect. And, I can tell you from experience, the NAM has no compunctions about lying big numbers with drying flow ( ). However, since this entire solution is more so trending toward more reliable guidance types ( Euro and ..whatever, they're all better than this model at handling synoptic anything), I would not be surprised if the next cycle has more of a 01 of 02... offering NNE trajectory that fit matters better. So, this immediate abv paragraph is just offering some reasoning why we may not want to shed the NAM's .7" snow burst tomorrow. I also like the fact that at 18 hours ... .32 has fallen with a +4, +4, 0C column. Once you get NW of the city... that could be +1, +1, -1 say FIT -ASH... that's your bust axis for Phase 1

Not to poke the hornet's nest but this sorta feels like a 'when does the dam break' scenario. We keep seeing these models edging the big deal, and falling short ...but the next series seems to look a little closer to doing that - ... maybe they'll fight to hold back the inevitable right into now-cast when Springfield Mass is in 1/4 mi vis 5::1 pillows falling or something like that... Talking phase 1. I mean I'm not forecasting that, but like Will being spooked about positive busts... it does kinda sorta head scratch a last minute cave. Phase 2 tomorrow, I've never been a fan of the old backlash - too many sorted memories of TV mets in the 1980s. However, it occurs to me that this situation isn't quite a backlash scenario. What is actually happening ( synoptic evolution ) is that the models are early in triggering a "main low" along the baroclinic axis as it cross the NJ shore and races by the Islands... The mid level ( 700 to 400 mb) jet mechanics are actually still way the hell and gone back SW ...and as that intense max wind core torpedos by ( 2deg lat S of the Pike and right on climate btw!), physics take over and column goes unstable over the top of a near fully saturated column. The resulting UVM is over a large area because all of that is spatially largely taking place aloft. And thus establishes cyclonic curvature ... back along/under the N exit-entrance relay of the jet maxing. In other words, that's not a backlash scenario. I don't know what we call that... it's like a smeared out coastal that is trying (the models) to disconnect the WAA phase from a more proper Norwegian cyclone model cross-section. Thank you - I enjoyed typing this ... despite not many understanding wtf it means. Back to the original sentiment. Phase 1 and 2 being sort of separate chapters in this story, I could picture both just finally going colder. It seems the correction vectoring has been pointed there and these runs are holding back that weight. So this part is less analytic and more angels on shoulders I guess.

yeah, ..just trying to raise awareness - we may be a bit rusty on these environmental feed-back headaches. I'm wonder if some of the 'rain' along Rt 2 converts to ZR prior to the column collapse snow burst tomorrow afternoon, and that could creep down eastern flank of Worcester/Watchusetts spine

Not sure about all those metaphors but ..yeah...it did just that for one run, the 18z yesterday ( GFS)... Since, 00z and 06z went quickly back to the easy scour out bully primary look. Not sure it can't return but it's fleeting as chances go, unfortunately. ...may still front side snow for a couple of hours, even though, but that 18z offered an interesting rendition that locked/stranded a cold slab in the interior from N CT NE

mm ... roughly along a line from Portsmouth NH to Springfield VT and N are < 25 F, with DPs in the upper teens and lower 20s. That's a bit below 'marginality' - that has me wondering actually. Particularly as this weak low along the front is passing roughly 75 W longitude, and that modestly denser low level air may get tapped and tucked. You're right in the general sense that it is marginal everywhere below that approximate latitude above, but that's also nearby and could affect phase one of this QPF "if" ageo were to even 10kts. I wouldn't bother mentioning if that cold BL lurking/hanging over top wasn't there... This is a pretty classic "cold capping" scenario in that area as they are quickly/densely overcasting as of dawn with zip gradient for mixing.

So normally one should expect half what those snow products show. 3-6”?

Trend ended from what I’m seeing. Or slowed. Best hope is to have the low level cold sort of missed again… Im not a big fan of the old backlash idea for the end game … too many painful memories growing up with that con lol.

I don't think we're done correcting the BL cold though. By the way, the GFS' mid week shift on the 18z is almost pants shitting... That's a major impact like out near the Quabbin and along Rt 2 ...with 6" thump followed by IP/ice 2010 December style.

Pretty impressive detailing too - You can see a vicious tuck pulse correction in the 2-meter. Flashes 33's to 27's between the Pike and Rt 2 having never flipped the ORH Hills to rain. That's a significant profile correction for the mid week system.

OH it's no question the day's models have heard your bitchin' and are doing their best. I just don't know if it's highly believable. I don't know ...I'm not un-confident .. heh. The thing is, these needle threaders can wiggle a small amount and have a big impact on gradation of ptypes and amounts therein. That's A The second thing, this is legit trending colder in the low levels... It appears the models were too warm in the BL across and as we are nearing this thing, there's some feedback coming from that correction. So as the system is flattening in the flow, we are getting a superposition of that over top a BL that's correcting. It's not correcting hugely. ...yet. So let's not get carried away. But it's a marginal system thermally, so it sensy to perturbations. The last several cycles of entire GEF cluster, including the operational...are actually tracking the low along a like-able trajectory for snow climo.. .But it's been raining clear back to NW CT to the Manadnocks. ...correcting the BL colder makes that interesting. Ice and IP are in the discussion, too. Lastly, the lagging jet dynamics forcing a new plume of moderate snow burst has been slowly emerging as an end game changer - perhaps.

Wow, that's a huge change in Quebec +PP orientation and frontside cold ahead of the 25/26 system in this 18z GFS! That looks like a classic SWFE 6"er ... crusted over W of 495. actually looks like 5 or 6" then a 1/2 of sleet and 1/4 of icing over top in interior SNE

In a quasi analogous way it's similar to this last system we just went through...with a lead sort of burst of isentropic lift rain and snow where-is lucky...then a ball of instability snow burst comes through after the fact. interesting - That also snows pretty darn hard for 3 or so hours in NYC-HFD corridor. That oughta make Kevina happy

well that 12z run was toss-able though. I thought anyway. I've been barking about that model having NW bias tendencies for years and that run was incarnate for me.

mm kinda like this HRRR model is telling us to up and shift the entire 'storm' 75 mi or more S of the previous consensus. Take those winter storm watches and move them wholesale ? ooh, NWS can't wait to do that! LOL

Hmm I might be making this up but ...seems to me we've been repeating a theme where about 30 or so hours before some event, the guidance overall make a snap dash attempt at colder solutions. Then, at 18 hours out, hint back the other way, only to go violently so when it's 6 to 12 hours before go time. Not sure if that cinema description is true, however... I feel like I've been to this rodeo this season and we don't have much to show for it. Ha

I'm nosing into this conversation, I know... my experience with this particular BL evolution appeal the Euro is selling this morning, BL warmth is quite fragile with steady fall rates through an 850 mb temperature crash, which that is. Between 54 and 60 hours, it goes from -.5 over FIT to -5 C, with a weakly bounded 850 mb pressure contour closing off over Scott's slowly receding hair line. I mean...what we're looking at that is the anatomy of a marginal event, whence the flop direction is on the cold side. If it's 34F at where cat paws go over to soaked cotton balls, they're 32.1 F in about 15 minutes of that happening when the column's imploding the way that run shows that. Probably finishes at 30- F along Rt 2

Know what's interesting I didn't know this thread existed first of all - I would have posted those thoughts here. Not that anyways needs to care, ha But, I was elaborating how the models have been inching SE with the rain/snow axis, as this system has both been nearing in time, but also tending to weaken and flatten out.. (by weaken ..I don't mean losing identity altogether, I just mean lessening warm thrust ending up W..etc). Anyway, it seems this run of the Euro stopped inching and took a leap of faith. I kind of hate this when this happens... This is sort of where this wants to go, so the Euro shows us that solution - but we cannot allow ourselves confidence enough to toss the others in lieu of this.

Yeah and I'm not sure what it'll mean. I'm not just trying to sow optimism here. It's opening the door to other possibilities, other than a pig primary with coughing secondary ... I also think we're ( no you and me per se but the royal 'we're' ) looking for idealized structures that aren't going to happen this year - to be blunt. Maybe ... not wrt these critters this week, anyway. Still, I think we can "get lucky" on both... How? Monday's event is shaving deg F, as well as inching the rain snow line SE in recent runs. I'd almost argue that we could be icing after a brief snow shot ...particularly when the low is nearing the islands and tucking kicks in - 'just enough'. Not a forecast - just how to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Then if the parent/ lead S/W becomes less dominant like your saying...we'll see for the next. I understand that down near y'all in SE coast, we're f'ed either way. Frankly, until the arctic air really makes it's present felt/physically exerting, not sure anyone along the coastal plain is going to be particularly UNf'ed until that happens. Last 3 cycles of the GFS has a little critter look along the leading powerful arctic p-wave coming through in a week. Everyone may WINDEX 1.5 to 3" or so out of that....

So I mentioned this to Will in a tl/dr op ed a couple hours ago... This 25 ( I guess it is no longer the "26th" ?) event is trying to devolve in the guidance. They've all been weakening, albeit slowly, the system's cyclonic scaffolding as this has relayed into mid range. The 12z GFS is now just 1000 mb closed contour with the primary over NW PA, with 999 mb secondary that is also bumped slightly E of the prior model cycle positions, centered over the NY Bite at 12z Thur. That's all code for continuing to turn this away from a strong cyclonic total evolution.. .but toward what? I'm wondering if this continues to devolve to more of something like Monday's event... flatter wave(s) with overrunning. It's almost down to just being an WAA thrust already. If the primary continues to weaken in the outlook, eventually it'll all just collapse SE en masse. We'll see -

'Throw in the towel' ... Not trying to be condescending or elitist, but I prefer not to venture into such 'emotive' responses to this shit? That likens to a 5 year-old ... flopping in the check-out aisle ... having a tantrum because mom won't let 'er have that piece of shiny candy - that's deliberately there at eye level for the pant-leg grabbing, spoiled little square-mouthed enrage brat. ..But I digress.. I guess there some 'compartmentilization' that goes on with this engagement - within me, anyway. I can have my druthers and disappointments, and my druthers and successes... but I still will approach with the objective analytic intention. I am human, though - but you're asking me a question that sort of delves into my personality a bit. Just trying to be honest... So anyway, there are a couple of points I'd make going forward. 1 ... both education, ranging to existential life, teaches us that it is foolish to 'throw in towels' until ... Easter really. That said, it depends on what one's hoping to experience. If it is heavy stacked snow pack? .... that can't really happen after ~ March 1 do to the obvious. But if one is just hoping for the 'rush' at a great looking series of model runs and the drama build-up of big events... ? That's open season until May. You'll just have to be aware that the return rate is dropping over time. 2 ... Right now the numerical teleconnectors deny everything in #1 ... sorry. I don't make the rules or the correlations - they are what they are. But this panel Would not be encouraging in the climate realm of 30 years ago. It would signify that this pattern change is not long for the world. In 2023, after the last 10 years have sported three separate Februaries that hosted temperatures in the mid 70s, and even an unthinkable 80 F ...?? That panel of teleconnector numerics/graphical presentations should not set very well to any objective consumer. The AO above has a lot of spread. Even though the mean curve is positive, ...enough members are slumped to suggest the confidence chi isn't hugely large there. But every NAO and PNA member is warm in the right panels - and those are perhaps the more important indicators for our latitude. Combing the aspects of #2 above with this telelon spread is pretty much the opposite of an inspiring look for over the longer duration. If one were to say that this winter is "bottoming out" over the next 10 days in particular, after which a some sort of (dying Nina + CC )/2 takes us back to one of those springs like 2009 ...you'd have a strong case.

what - not sure I understand this question?

You know...at 'local hemispheric scale' ...there's been plenty of cold air this year. Available to systems as they are passing through? That's been the problem - That comes down to in situ mechanics/synoptic variance. That said, ( just pointed this out) the latter mid and extended range is brutally cold across the Canadian shield.. We don't need deliverance from Siberia in either sense.